Sudan
Sudan exhibits low-level performance across three of the categories of the Global State of Democracy framework: Representation, Rights and Rule of Law; it falls within the mid-range with regard to Participation. Over the past five years, it has experienced multiple improvements in several factors of Rights, Rule of Law and Participation, which reflect democratic progress following the 2019 coup that deposed Omar al-Bashir. A subsequent military coup in 2021, however, put this transition in peril. Sudan is a low-income country, with an economy primarily based on petroleum exports, agriculture, and gold mining.
In precolonial times, present-day Sudan was inhabited by Nubian kingdoms that had major influences on African and Egyptian art, culture, and religion. Over the course of the 19th century, Sudan came under the joint colonial rule of the UK and Egypt as well as Turkish-Egyptian rule; it gained its independence in 1956. Since then, the country’s political history has been characterized by short periods of democratic rule, several coups and military regimes, long stretches of authoritarian control and war. Omar al-Bashir , wanted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, ruled Sudan from 1989 to 2019.
Sudan’s politics have generally been driven by conflicts between center and periphery and between Islamists and secularists. Much of post-independence history has been marked by a civil war with present-day South Sudan, which obtained its independence from Sudan in 2011. This conflict was driven by the diverging demographics of the predominantly Muslim Arab North and the majority Christian and Black South, and by the President’s 1983 decision to impose Sharia law on the entire country. The War in Darfur, ongoing to the present day, similarly reflects the grievances of many in the region who are of non-Arab ethnicity; this conflict has produced gross human rights abuses and atrocities, largely committed by security forces and by Janjaweed militia. Divisions between Islamists and secularists also remain highly salient in Sudan, fueling civil conflicts and fierce debates regarding rights and freedoms. The time between 1983 and 2019, when the country was governed under Sharia law, saw significant curtailment of the rights of women, LGBTQIA+ people, and religious and ethnic minorities.
Issues of development and democracy also drive politics in Sudan. The country ranks poorly in the UN Human Development Index, and the 2019 protests that led to the downfall of President Bashir began in large part due to the end of bread and fuel subsidies and the decline of living standards. About one-third of Sudanese people are faced with hunger and serious food insecurity. The Bashir regime was accused of severe corruption, and efforts to recoup certain assets are ongoing.
Over the coming years, much will depend on whether the country is able to negotiate an end to renewed fighting and a return to civilian government. If this occurs, it will be important to watch any transitional justice mechanisms, the work of the anti-corruption taskforce and the repeal of sharia law. These changes could impact almost all factors of democratic performance.
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
May 2024
Intensified fighting in North Dafur’s capital prompts genocide warnings
An intensification of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, has prompted a UN expert to warn of genocide. El-Fasher, the last major urban area in Darfur controlled by the SAF, has been besieged by the RSF since April 2024. However, by May the security situation had significantly deteriorated, leaving the more-than one million people thought to be trapped in the city at risk of dying from a lack of food and medicine, being caught in the crossfire or becoming the targets of ethnic violence. Experts have warned that the fighting threatens to aggravate intercommunal conflict, predicting that the increasingly polarised environment could lead to large-scale ethnic killings. Among them was the UN’s Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, who in a UN Security Council briefing on 21 May stated that the risk of genocide in Sudan was ‘growing, every single day’.
Sources: The New Humanitarian, Middle East Eye (1), Middle East Eye (2), Sudan Tribune, United Nations (1), United Nations (2), British Broadcasting Corporation
April 2024
Sudan suspends UAE- and Saudi-owned TV channels
On 2 April, Sudan’s Ministry of Culture and Information suspended the operations of three TV channels in the country, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Al Arabiya and Al Hadath and the UAE-owned Sky News Arabia. The Ministry justified its decision on the grounds that the outlets had failed to renew their licences and that they had shown ‘a lack of commitment to the required professionalism and transparency.’ The suspensions were heavily criticised by the Sudanese Journalists Syndicate, a trade union, which described them as a ‘clear violation of freedom of expression and freedom of the media’ and asserted that they were part of a broader pattern of journalist intimidation in Sudan, which is in the midst of a civil war.
Sources: Reuters, Sudan Tribune, Sudanese Journalists Syndicate, Committee to Protect Journalists, Radio Dabanga
November 2023
Resurgence of ethnic violence in West Darfur
In November, the UN and other monitors reported a resurgence of ethnic violence in West Darfur State following an assault on the town of Ardamata by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied Arab militias, which are fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the ongoing armed conflict. Between 800 and 1,500 people are estimated to have been killed in just a few days of violence which, like the ethnic killings that took place in the state’s capital, El Geneina, between April and June 2023, is reported to have been systematically perpetrated by the RSF and Arab militia against the Masalit community and, to a lesser extent, other non-Arab groups. According to witnesses, after wresting control of Ardamata from the SAF, the RSF and militia went through the town’s internally displaced people’s camp and other residential areas, detaining and summarily executing men (particularly Masalit community leaders), raping women and forcing thousands to flee to Chad. The UNHCR warned that a similar dynamic may be developing in Darfur to that which drove the region’s genocide in the early 2000s. Earlier in November, the UN expressed grave concern over reports that, in RSF-controlled parts of Darfur, women are being abducted and held in ‘inhuman, degrading slave-like conditions.’
Sources: United Nations (1), Sudan Tribune, Human Rights Watch, The Economist, Africa Confidential, The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, United Nations (2), Sudan War Monitor
June 2023
Ethnic violence escalates in West Darfur
In June, senior UN officials warned of escalating ethnic violence in West Darfur State, after reports emerged of large-scale and targeted attacks by Arab militiamen on non-Arab civilians living in the state’s capital El Geneina, a contested location in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Prior to the conflict, both sides (the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)) had recruited fighters from rival ethnic communities. When fighting broke out in El Geneina in April 2023, it took on an ethnic dimension, establishing a pattern of violence in which the RSF and their local Arab militia are alleged to have systematically killed, raped and forcefully expelled members of the non-Arab Masalit community, whose fighters were allied to the SAF. The violence in El-Geneina is thought to have peaked in mid-June, when thousands were killed (including West Darfur’s Governor) or fled. Similar attacks have been reported elsewhere in West Darfur. The UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide stated that, if confirmed, the attacks could amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Note: This report was updated on 15 September for accuracy and comprehensiveness.
Sources: United Nations (1), The Economist, Reuters, Human Rights Watch, Radio Dabanga, Africa Confidential, Cable News Network, United Nations (2), World Health Organisation
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GSoD Indices Data 2014-2023
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