Sudan
Sudan exhibits low-level performance across all four of the categories of the Global State of Democracy framework and it is ranked among the world’s bottom 25 per cent countries in almost all indices. The 2019 revolution that deposed the country’s long-ruling autocrat, Omar al-Bashir, and the brief period of civilian-military government that followed, was accompanied by notable improvements in several indicators, particularly those associated with Participation. These gains have, however, been largely eroded by a 2021 coup d’état and the ongoing civil war, which broke out in 2023. The war has also had a devastating impact on Sudan’s low-income economy, severely disrupting oil exports and agricultural production, and has pushed the country into famine.
Present day Sudan includes several ancient kingdoms, most notably the powerful Nubian kingdom of Kush. The development in the seventh century of trans-Saharan trade networks connecting west Africa with the Middle East transformed Sudanese society, as migration from the Arabian Peninsula prompted the spread of Arab culture and the rise of Islam as a common religion. Today, 70 per cent of Sudan's population is categorised broadly as ‘Sudanese Arab’ and the remaining 30 per cent as ‘Sudanese African’, although this binary distinction obscures the country's ethnic diversity. Ninety-seven per cent of Sudanese people are Sunni Muslim.
Sudan’s politics has been strongly influenced by the political and economic inequalities that exist between its central riverain area surrounding the capital Khartoum and its western and southern peripheries. Exacerbated by skewed economic development under British-Egyptian colonial rule (1899-1955), they have fuelled regional insurgencies, the longest of which was fought in what is now South Sudan prior to its secession in 2011. The almost exclusively Arab character of Sudan’s riverain political elite (another legacy of British colonial administration) has engendered a sense of exclusion among non-Arabs. This has been exacerbated by ethnically based counter-insurgency policies adopted by successive governments, in which Arab tribal militias have been used to attack non-Arab communities. The resulting ethnic polarization led to genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region between 2003 and 2005 and further ethnic violence in the region during the ongoing civil war.
Of critical importance to the current conflict has been the prominent role that its security sector has played in its politics and economy. Since independence in 1956, the country has experienced several periods of military rule, and the highly centralised and securitised state left behind by Al-Bashir in 2019 gave senior members of the military control of many of the country’s state and private institutions. This power allowed the military to derail Sudan’s transition to democratic rule in 2021 and in 2023 led to the outbreak of the ongoing civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The war is a power struggle between these two military factions. Al-Bashir’s rule also empowered Islamists, who came to dominate the military sector and civil service and enforced highly repressive Islamic public order codes that left women politically and economically marginalised. While Sudanese women played a prominent role in the 2019 revolution, challenging perceived gender roles, they have been disproportionately affected by the widespread sexual violence, displacement and hunger that has marked the civil war. Gender gaps persist in relation to education and economic participation and female genital mutilation is widespread.
Looking forward, it will be important to monitor the progress of efforts to negotiate an end to the war, which is impacting Sudan’s performance across all Global State of Democracy indicators. The growing threat of catastrophic famine and further ethnic violence in Darfur mean that Basic Welfare and Political Equality are areas that should be watched particularly closely.
Last updated: November 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
February 2025
RSF and allies sign charter to establish parallel government
On 23 February, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied political and armed groups signed a charter in Nairobi aimed at establishing a parallel government in the areas of Sudan under their control. Experts warned the formation of such a government would entrench the de facto partition of Sudan between the warring parties, with administrative control currently split between the Army-led government, the RSF and other armed groups. They suggested that this in turn could further destabilise the country and worsen the conflict, which has been characterised by large-scale ethnic and gender-based violence, attacks on civilians and critical civilian infrastructure, famine and allegations of atrocity crimes, including genocide. The charter’s signatories reportedly intend to form the government ‘within weeks.’
Sources: Sudan Founding Charter, Sudan Tribune, European Council on Foreign Relations, The Economist, Reuters
December 2024
Famine spreads in Sudan amidst ongoing civil war
On 24 December, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global standard for food security, published a report confirming that Sudan’s famine had spread. In August, it had declared famine in the North Darfurian displacement camp of Zamzam, but its December report found that between October and November famine conditions also existed in at least two other camps in the state, as well as in the Western Nuba Mountains. It projected that by May 2025 famine will have reached an additional five areas and identified the ongoing war as a major driver of the food scarcity. The conflict has resulted in mass displacement, economic collapse and disruptions to food supply chains, and UN experts have accused the warring parties of obstructing humanitarian access. The Sudanese government responded to the report by suspending its participation in the IPC, accusing it of ‘issuing unreliable reports that undermine Sudan’s sovereignty and dignity.’
Sources: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), Reuters
October 2024
Fighting and atrocities escalate in Sudan’s civil war
In October, the end of the rainy season precipitated an intensification of fighting in Sudan’s civil war and early reports indicated that it had exacted a heavy civilian toll. In North Darfur state, for example, dozens of people are thought to have been killed in attacks on displacement camps, hospitals and markets. At least 23 civilians died in an air strike on a market in the capital Khartoum, alleged to have been conducted by the Sudanese Armed Forces. In el-Gezira, a state in eastern-central Sudan, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were reported to have carried out ethnically targeted attacks on at least thirty villages. According to the UN, these attacks resembled those perpetrated by the RSF in Darfur, and involved mass killings, sexual violence and looting. An estimated 46,700 people were displaced by the attacks in el-Gezira over the course of a single week.
Sources: International Crisis Group, Yale University, Africa Confidential, New York Times, United Nations (1), United Nations (2), International IDEA
August 2024
Famine officially declared in Darfur IDP camp
On 1 August, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global standard for food security, announced that its Famine Review Committee (FRC) had confirmed an ongoing famine in Zamzam camp, an internally displaced persons camp in Darfur. According to the FRC, famine conditions in Zamzam are highly likely to persist beyond October and that other areas of Sudan remain at risk of famine due to the ongoing conflict and limited humanitarian access. Zamzam is thought to be sheltering half a million people and is located on the outskirts of the North Darfurian city of El Fasher, that has for months been besieged by the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary force fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces. For a famine to be declared by the FRC, it has to determine that a sufficiently high proportion of a population in a specific area is suffering from extreme food scarcity. It is only the third time that it has made such a determination since its establishment in 2004.
Sources: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (1), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (2), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (3), Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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