
Guatemala

Guatemala performs in the low range in Rights, and in the mid-range in the Representation, Rule of Law, and Participation categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) Framework. It scores in the top 25 per cent globally regarding Freedom of Religion and Inclusive Suffrage but also in the bottom 25 per cent in various indicators. Between 2019 and 2024, the country has improved in Judicial Independence and Absence of Corruption but also declined in Free Political Parties. Guatemala is the most populated country in Central America. It is an upper-middle-income country, whose economy is largely driven by remittances and agricultural goods.
A former Spanish colony, Guatemala’s population is mostly Mestizo and Mayan. Minorities include non-Mayan Indigenous communities and people of African descent. In the mid-20th century, proposals for agrarian reform and land distribution were halted by military rulers. Unaddressed poverty, inequality and exclusion contributed to the rise of rebel groups, some supported by social sectors experiencing entrenched marginalization. A 36 year-long civil war (1960-1996) between the military government and such rebel groups followed. A UN-backed peace agreement gave way to a transitional process and the establishment of a truth commission which found widespread human rights abuses, primarily attributed to the military, including genocide against Mayan people. Post-war transitional justice, has become highly polarising. Despite modest advances in poverty reduction in the post-war period, Guatemalans, and particularly Indigenous communities, still face deprivations in food security and education. These conditions have resulted in large irregular migration waves towards North America.
Guatemala has made some progress towards establishing a legal framework to ensure gender equality, but a considerable lag in implementation and a lack of a comprehensive definition of gender-based discrimination, constitutes a challenge. Violence against women continues to occur at alarming rates. Same-sex marriage remains prohibited and the country lacks comprehensive anti-LGBTQIA+ discrimination legislation.
The main political divide has traditionally been between left and right-wing coalitions. However, corruption scandals led to diminished public confidence in establishment politicians and parties. This led to the creation in 2006 of the UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala, which the government shut down after it investigated a former president’s own conduct. Journalists and anti-corruption judges and prosecutors have been the target of reprisals and intimidation, but the current government (that took office in 2024) has prioritized anti-corruption efforts, including through the recent establishment of a National Commission against Corruption. Guatemala’s unstable party system and entrenched oligarchic elite has exacerbated distrust of politicians; during the 2023 presidential election, the number of spoiled ballots in the first-round exceeded the number of votes received by the leading candidate.
Recently politics have been dominated by tension between prosecutors and the executive. Prosecutorial actions against the now-president, his political party, and members of the Electoral Tribunal, have contributed to a landscape of political confrontation and obstacles in implementing the government’s agenda.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Rule of Law and its related factors, as selective investigations and prosecutions persist. Their impact on the ability of the government to see through its stated anti-corruption commitment could affect the modest improvements in this indicator of democracy. The impact of announced measures for poverty reduction will be key for Economic Equality and Basic Welfare, as universal access to services like health and education remain a challenge.
Last Updated: July 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
August 2024
Prosecutions are brought against President Arévalo and officials
The Special Prosecutor against Impunity has brought preliminary criminal proceedings against President Bernardo Arévalo for his alleged participation in a scheme in which the government allegedly made irregular payments to businesses for public works. According to the Special Prosecutor, Arévalo should be charged with abuse of authority and influence peddling. A member of Arévalo’s cabinet and Head of the Victims’ Institute, Ligia Hernandez, has been arrested in the context of a different investigation, one related to the alleged illicit financing of the now-suspended Seed Movement Party. Arevalo has denounced the prosecutions as politically motivated, which are widely regarded by both national and regional experts as part of the broader efforts by some domestic actors, including the Public Prosecutor’s office, to undermine the government and hamper its anti-corruption agenda.
Sources: La Hora, Agencia Guatemalteca de Noticias, CNN (1), Prensa Libre, CNN (2)
May 2024
President Arévalo proposes legal changes to remove top prosecutor
President Bernardo Arévalo presented an initiative to Congress to modify the law governing the Public Prosecutor’s Office to reinstate the executive’s power to remove the chief prosecutor (Fiscal General). Current top prosecutor Consuelo Porras has been accused of selectively investigating Arévalo and his political party, to undermine the results and meddle in last year’s general elections. Porras, who has been the subject of international sanctions, has condemned Arévalo’s proposal and challenged it before the Constitutional Court. Though the initiative stalled in Congress, the Court granted a provisional protection (amparo provisional) and ordered Arévalo to refrain from taking any measure outside of the constitutional and legal framework against Porras’s term in office, and to refrain from acting against the autonomy of the Public Prosecutor’s office. The president has sought to remove Porras through other means, such as a request to the Constitutional Court for an opinion on Porras’s suitability as top prosecutor and has argued that she has enabled impunity and corruption, an assessment shared by other political actors and many citizens.
Sources: TelesurTV, Prensa Libre, El Pais
March 2024
Electoral judges are indicted for fraud
On 14 March, four electoral judges of Guatemala’s Electoral Tribunal were indicted for fraud for allegedly purchasing results transmission technology (for the 2023 elections) at inflated prices. The judges had been stripped of their immunity by a majority in Congress last November, in a measure widely deemed political in nature and criticised as part of the prosecutorial efforts to overturn the results of the 2023 elections. The move had sparked international condemnation and sanctions by the United States. Since then, the electoral judges had been in exile. Upon their return to Guatemala to face the accusations, the presiding criminal judge refused prosecutors’ call for the electoral judges to face additional charges for breach of duties and to remain in pre-trial detention.
Sources: Agencia Guatemalteca de Noticias, France 24, Associated Press
January 2024
President Arévalo sworn in with delays and his party left out of Congress leadership
Bernardo Arévalo took office as President of Guatemala after numerous post-election hurdles and delays. Prosecutorial actions and investigations into Arévalo and his Semilla Party, widely considered to be unfounded and political in nature, as well as other attempts to undermine the Electoral Tribunal’s authority, had caused serious concerns about the transition of power.
A group of regional leaders and diplomats, including the Secretary General of the Organization of American States, issued a statement in support of Arévalo, underlining the need to ensure that the popular will be respected and calling on Congress to abide by its mandate.
Days later, the Constitutional Court ordered that elections for congressional leadership be repeated. This followed an appeal by a member of the opposition, who argued that due to the suspension of Semilla’s legal personality, its members could not take leadership roles. After a repeat election, a Blue Party legislator assumed the presidency of Congress’s Board, excluding Semilla Party members from leadership positions.
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