Present-day Djibouti is thought to have been inhabited since the neolithic age and in antiquity it likely formed part of the trading territory known as Punt. Following the introduction of Islam to the area in the ninth century, it was ruled by a  series of sultanates. Between the late nineteenth century and 1977 it was first a colony and then an overseas territory of France, under whose rule ethnic identities were essentialised and became the basis for political participation. Alongside geopolitical issues, ethnic tensions are one of the primary drivers of Djibouti’s politics.

The country has a dominant party system—in which the main party enjoys a four-fifths parliamentary majority—and has been ruled by President Ismail Omar Guelleh since the election in 1999, in which he succeeded his uncle. The regime has maintained power by limiting freedom of assembly and association, marginalizing and arresting dissenting journalists and human rights defenders, and nepotism. Furthermore, government officials have muzzled political opposition through arresting and threatening opposition parties.

Guelleh and most other governing party officials are members of the Issa Somali ethnic group, which comprises 60 per cent of the population and fought an insurgency against members of the Afar minority (35 per cent) in the early 1990s. Conflict between the Somali and Afar states in Ethiopia has spilled over into southern Djibouti, where the local Issa Somali and Afar population have violently clashed. However, interethnic tensions between the Issa Somali and Afar population groups in Djibouti are not solely the result of spillover from Ethiopia and date back to post-independence politics, which politically sidelined the Afar people in response to their being favoured by the French colonial administration. At the same time, Djiboutian women also face discrimination, and there are gender gaps in key areas, including education, employment and political representation.

Access to Djibouti’s ports for its landlocked neighbours gives it regional importance, but it has also made it a prime transit site for illicit arms trade and human trafficking. Djibouti plays a stabilizing role in the Horn of Africa and hosts refugees from the region, notably from Somalia, Ethiopia, and Yemen. Djibouti remains politically stable, partly due to the unfettered power of the current regime, which, despite its repression of opposition and human rights organizations, can rely on external support due to Djibouti’s strategic geopolitical importance.

Going forward, it will be important to watch all categories of democratic performance. The state anti-corruption initiatives should be monitored to assess any possibility of improvement. Relatedly, there is a need for job growth to accompany economic growth in Djibouti. Otherwise, unemployment levels, especially among women, could impact poverty-related food insecurity; the Basic Welfare and Gender Equality indicators should be monitored with this in mind.

Last updated: June 2024