Ukraine
Ukraine exhibits mid-range performance in three categories of the Global State of Democracy framework (Representation, Rights and Participation), but it performs in the low range in Rule of Law. It is among the world’s top 25 per cent of countries in Gender Equality but is among the bottom 25 per cent in Freedom of Movement and Civic Engagement. Over the last five years, Ukraine has experienced notable advances in Credible Elections and Absence of Corruption while suffering declines in Freedom of Movement, Freedom of Association and Assembly and Civil Liberties. A lower-middle-income country, Ukraine is a major producer of metals and agricultural goods. However, outmigration is a serious issue, and between 15 and 25 per cent of the country’s pre-war labour force was estimated to be employed abroad.
Ukraine’s current political landscape is dominated by the ongoing Russian war of aggression, which began in February 2022. The war has prompted a surge of refugee outflows and internal displacement.
Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has commonly been characterized as having a “pro-Russian” versus “pro-Western” cleavage, but these terms are reductive. Although ethnicity, language, social class, and geography are strong drivers of the country’s political cleavages, they have not cleanly or consistently divided Ukraine into a Russophone, Slavicizing east and a Ukrainian-speaking, Europhile west. Together, ethnic Russians and Ukrainians make up over 90 percent of the population, with Belarusians, Moldovans, and Crimean Tatars making up the largest remaining minorities. Persistent gender inequality has been exacerbated by the Russian invasion, with women experiencing greater economic, physical, and psychosocial inequality than men.
In practice, ethnic and linguistic boundaries in Ukraine are blurred, bilingualism is near-universal, and large swathes of rural and suburban Ukraine rely on a Ukrainian-Russian creole known as surzhyk. Arguments over the relative status of the Russian and Ukrainian languages has been a frequent rallying point in national politics, but this discourse is often a proxy for other concerns about unemployment, inequality, the distribution of national resources, and corruption. The 2014 Euromaidan Revolution and the 2022 invasion triggered an ongoing renegotiation of Ukraine’s sense of national identity, the outcome of which remains uncertain.
In pre-war Ukraine, the controversial handling of reforms of judicial, electoral, and anti-corruption institutions were a driving political force. Broad-based efforts to improve the everyday functioning of government and fight corruption had been hampered by the often-countervailing force of strong patrimonial structures centred around powerful oligarchs or local power brokers. These oligarchs dominated the state and economy for nearly all of Ukraine’s independent history, only losing ground following the full-scale Russian invasion. Indeed, domestic dissatisfaction with corruption and state capture has driven two mass democratic revolutions in 2004 and 2014 in response to, respectively, electoral fraud and autocratization of the presidency. Behind the scenes struggles between oligarchs have resulted in constitutional instability and recurring public conflicts between the office of the president, the parliament, and government ministries loyal to various power brokers.
Civil Liberties and Freedom of Association have declined in recent years, reflecting bans on pro-Russian political parties and restrictions on movement that are part of the government’s wartime defence efforts. They may or may not be indicative of the country’s future post-war development. The short- and long-term democratic trajectory of Ukraine will be heavily influenced by the outcome of the ongoing war and the nature of its final settlement.
Monthly Event Reports
March 2024 | Parliament registers draft law that blocks banned party members from office
Ukraine’s parliament registered several draft laws that would indefinitely restrict the ability of members of the now-banned Party of Regions, Opposition Bloc, the Opposition Platform — For Life, Shariy Party and more from holding any political office at any level in the country. The parties were banned following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 for having links to Russia. The Venice Commission and ODIHR criticized the draft bills last year as indiscriminate and often unclear, and Ukrainian legal expert organization OPORA argued that members of the banned parties should only be prevented from holding office on the basis of a court decision. The draft laws will be considered by parliament and require presidential approval before becoming law.
February 2024 | Mass surveillance scandal hits Ukrainian media
Journalistic investigations revealed that the State Security Service (SBU) has been surveilling investigative reporters from Bihus.info, Nashi Hroshi, Ukrainska Pravda and others, as well as leaking surveilled material online and harassing and disparaging staff via fake news websites and anonymous Telegram channels. Following the revelations, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the implicated head of the unit of the SBU, while Justice Minister Denys Maliuska said closer governmental oversight of the agency was necessary. After Ukrainian journalists revealed SBU agents were responsible, the news was met with widespread condemnation and calls for swift action from domestic and international media watchdogs. President Zelenskyy responded that “any pressure on journalists is unacceptable”, and prosecutors have opened an investigation.
January 2024 | Civil society critical of draft lobbying law
The Verkhovna Rada passed a draft law ‘On Integrity in Lobbying’ on the first reading on 10 January. Adopting a law governing lobbying in line with European Union standards is one of four November 2023 recommendations the European Commission gave Ukraine to be completed by March 2024 as part of its plan for potential EU accession. The draft law aims to define lobbying and methods of influence, to create a public register of lobbyists, and to establish ethical rules and obligations for lobbyists. A coalition of civil society organisations sharply criticized the draft law in its current state, arguing that as written, a wide swathe of ordinary citizens, non-profits, and civil society organizations would be improperly defined and regulated as lobbyists. The European Union had not yet provided a public assessment of the law.
December 2023 | Asset declarations back online
Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention restored public access in December to the nation’s register of officials’ asset declarations. The register was created in 2016 but both mandatory asset declarations and public access were suspended as a national security measure following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill restoring access and mandating disclosures in October following campaigns from domestic civil society and members of European Parliament.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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Knowledge Resources
Supporting Ukraine’s Democracy After the War: Key Issues, Comparative Experience and Best Practices: GSoD In Focus No. 14
The international community broadly accepts the necessity of providing significant financial and technical assistance for reconstruction in Ukraine, but equally vital is the provision of concomitant support for Ukraine’s work to preserve and reconstruct its democracy and democratic institutions on its own terms.
The Ukraine War and the Struggle to Defend Democracy in Europe and Beyond: Rising stakes in the struggle for democracy
Increasing authoritarianism in some countries, such as Russia, coupled with gradual democratic erosion around the world, poses an exceptional threat to a rules-based global order, and consequently to peace and prosperity. The invasion of Ukraine is the most blatant and tragic realization of this threat.
