Serbia
Serbia performs in the mid-range in all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework, although its performance in Representation is at the lower end of mid-range. Between 2018-2023, Serbia has experienced significant declines in Credible Elections and Effective Parliament, as well as in Civil Liberties (Freedom of Association and Assembly). The country ranks among the top 25 per cent in Electoral Participation. Serbia is an upper-middle-income country and its economy is mainly structured around the service and industrial sectors, as well as the agricultural sector. Notable exports include insulated wire, copper ore, frozen fruit and maize.
Serbia was first established as a Kingdom in the 13th century and was for a long time under Ottoman occupation, along with parts of the country being under Habsburg control, before gaining independence again in 1878. After World War II, Serbia became a federal republic within communist Yugoslavia. This union of nations ended abruptly in 1991 when several states within Yugoslavia declared independence. This triggered uprisings among several ethnic Serb minority groups throughout Yugoslavia, supported by Serbia, which ultimately led to the outbreak of the Yugoslav Wars. Serbia and Montenegro went on to form the union of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1992, a union which lasted until 2006 when Montenegro declared independence.
The main political cleavage in the last two decades has centered on the question of EU accession and Serbia’s close relationship with Russia, as well as the legacy of the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s. In the early 2000s, a pro-West coalition governed for roughly a decade, and made progress in arresting war criminals, apologizing for war crimes in Srebrenica and Vukovar and pursuing EU membership. But these efforts also faced nationalist backlash, most violently seen in the 2003 assassination of Zoran Đinđić, Serbia’s reformist Prime Minister. Serbia’s stance towards Kosovo, which was previously part of Serbia and is predominantly populated by Kosovar Albanians, remains a focal point of political debate, despite its independence in 2008 (which Serbia doesn’t recognize) and a 2023 agreement on normalization of relations. However, the pro-West parties and the nationalists take similar positions on the issues which define these main cleavages. Most pro-West parties oppose recognizing Kosovar independence, along with the nationalists. While maintaining strong ties with Russia, the nationalists are also pro-EU, a position that was previously exclusive to the pro-Western wing.
Economic stagnation after the global financial crisis drove dissatisfaction, contributing to the nationalist opposition's rise to power in 2012. Since then, the ruling elite has consolidated power and appointed loyalists to key institutions. Pro-government media dominates, and independent outlets are often subject to government pressure and hostility. Opposition voices, civil society, and activists encounter intimidation and pressure. International observers said that the 2023 elections, which were followed by large protests, were undermined by the involvement of the President, overwhelming ruling party advantage, vote buying and ballot box stuffing. The judiciary, despite efforts to align with the EU requirements, is subject to political pressure, and corruption is widespread. The authorities have been continuously accused of breaching minority rights, especially of the Albanians and the Roma.
GSoD Indices data show that Serbia is a high performer in Gender Equality. Despite the adoption of reforms promoting equality, implementation is slow, resulting in ongoing underrepresentation of women in almost all sectors. Domestic violence and femicide are widespread. The LGBTQIA+ community is often challenged by the government and traditional society, and has been exposed to homophobic attacks. Same-sex marriage is not recognized.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Rule of Law, especially the Absence of Corruption, in light of the adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy (2024-2028). Particular attention should be paid to Civil Liberties, especially Freedom of Expression, Freedom of the Press, and Freedom of Association and Assembly, in light of reports of crackdowns and intimidation against opposition voices, journalists, and activists by authorities. Participation should be closely monitored to assess the impact of these restrictions on Civil Society and Civic Engagement. Lastly, Social Group Equality should be watched following ongoing reports of rights violations against minorities and the LGBTQIA+ community.
Last updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
August 2024
Revived lithium-mining project causes mass protest
Following around 50 protests since June, a mass demonstration against lithium mining on 10 August drew around 30,000 participants, ending with the blockade of two train stations and several arrests. Three activists were handed what were deemed harsh penalties by legal experts—one receiving 40 days of detention and two others 30 days—for “disturbing public order,” though the ruling was overturned for all of them on appeal on 13 August. The protest targeted a plan to open a lithium mine by the Australian-British consortium Rio Tinto, with activists urging a law to permanently ban lithium mining. Despite the project's potential economic benefits, citizens fear it will pollute land and water and disrupt local communities. The project, initially cancelled in 2022 after mass protests, was revived in July without proper public or civil society consultation when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič secured deals for EU carmakers to access Serbian lithium. Government officials dismissed the protest as politically motivated.
Sources: Danas, Politico (1), Politico (2), Reuters, European Western Balkans
June 2024
Authorities ban ‘Mirëdita, Dobar Dan!’ cultural exchange festival
On 27 June, Minister of Interior Ivica Dačić announced the ban of the ‘Mirëdita, Dobar Dan!’ cultural exchange festival, citing security concerns just hours before it was set to begin. Organized by the Youth Initiative for Human Rights in Belgrade, the festival aims to promote regional cooperation and peace-building. Despite controversy over recognizing Kosovo's independence and calls for cancellation by top Serbian officials, the festival has been held annually since 2014, with growing attendance each year. About 50 men blocked the festival entrance, vowing not to leave until it was cancelled. Organizers and journalists from Kosovo were held by police for hours and were told to return to Kosovo. Civil society and journalists accused authorities of creating a hostile environment, and Civil Rights Defenders called the ban a severe infringement on freedom of expression and assembly.
Sources: Nedeljne informativne novine (1), Nedeljne informativne novine (2), Balkan Insight, Al Jazeera Balkans, Civil Rights Defenders, Koha, Kosovo Online
January 2024
Secret service arrests and tortures opposition politician
Opposition politician Nikola Sandulović was taken by the Serbian Security Information Agency (BIA) on 3 January and was arrested on 4 January on suspicion of “inciting racial, national and religious hatred” after publishing a video in which he apologized for war crimes committed by Serbs in Kosovo. Sandulović claims that while in BIA custody, he was beaten and tortured by a group of men, including Milan Radoičić and three others who had been involved in the EU-labeled terrorist attack in Banjska, Kosovo in September. Radoičić has been taking refuge in Serbia despite an Interpol arrest warrant. Sandulović reportedly suffered severe injuries and was paralysed on one side of his body. Aleksandar Vulin, the US-sanctioned former intelligence chief of Serbia, confirmed that he ordered the detention but said that no violence was used. On 15 January, Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe’s (PACE) rapporteur on political prisoners, called on Serbian authorities to carry out an independent investigation of the allegations. Shortly after, Sandulović was released.
Sources: PACE, Euractiv (1), Euractiv (2), The Guardian, bne IntelliNews, Radio Television of Serbia, Politika, Balkan Insight
December 2023
Country holds early elections
Early parliamentary, local and Vojvodina provincial elections were held on 17 December. Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Must Not Stop electoral list led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won nearly 47 per cent of the vote, while opposition parties under the Serbia Against Violence (SPN) won nearly 24 per cent. Although President Vučić did not participate as a candidate, he campaigned alongside Serbia Must Not Stop, pledging new roads, hospitals, one-time cash bonuses, and that Kosovo will be part of Serbia. SPN claims it won the elections, especially in Belgrade, and called for annulment. The electoral process was marred by reports of irregularities and led to weeks of protests and international condemnation. The electoral commission decided to have a rerun in 30 polling stations (0.38 percent of the polling stations). International observers said that voters had political alternatives but that elections were undermined by the involvement of the President, the overwhelming ruling party advantage, vote buying and ballot box stuffing. Women will hold 38 per cent of parliament seats, up from the previous 35 per cent. Voter turnout stood at 58 per cent.
Sources: The Government of the Republic of Serbia, The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), B92, Deutsche Welle, Euractiv, Euronews, OSCE ODHIR, Inter-Parliamentary Union, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2)
Electoral fraud reports trigger protests and international condemnation
Following reports of electoral fraud in the 17 December elections, tens of thousands protested, opposition figures went on hunger strike, and student organizations staged blockades. Police violence and arrests ensued when supporters of the opposition, Serbia Against Violence, tried to break into Belgrade’s city hall by smashing windows. The opposition suspects the involvement of agents provocateurs in the incident. President Vučić and Russian authorities attributed the turmoil to foreign interference, while Prime Minister Ana Brnabić thanked the Russian secret service for information on the opposition. EU election observers reported organized voters from Republika Srpska (RS) and cases of intimidation. Authorities claim only citizens voted. Of the alleged 40,000 voters from RS, Brnabić says 20,360 crossed the border on voting day, with only about 15,000 voting. Germany deemed accusations of electoral misconduct for an EU candidate country unacceptable. MEPs along with 24 senior European foreign affairs politicians, called for an independent investigation. During a European Parliament plenary session, most speakers criticized the elections.
Sources: N1, Euractiv (1), Euractiv (2), Euractiv (3), European Western Balkans, British Broadcasting Corporation, Politico (1), Politico (2), The Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, OSCE ODHIR, International IDEA
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