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Serbia
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Serbia performs in the mid-range in all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework, although its performance in Representation is at the lower end of mid-range. Between 2018-2023, Serbia has experienced significant declines in Credible Elections and Effective Parliament, as well as in Civil Liberties (Freedom of Association and Assembly). The country ranks among the top 25 per cent in Electoral Participation. Serbia is an upper-middle-income country and its economy is mainly structured around the service and industrial sectors, as well as the agricultural sector. Notable exports include insulated wire, copper ore, frozen fruit and maize.
Serbia was first established as a Kingdom in the 13th century and was for a long time under Ottoman occupation, along with parts of the country being under Habsburg control, before gaining independence again in 1878. After World War II, Serbia became a federal republic within communist Yugoslavia. This union of nations ended abruptly in 1991 when several states within Yugoslavia declared independence. This triggered uprisings among several ethnic Serb minority groups throughout Yugoslavia, supported by Serbia, which ultimately led to the outbreak of the Yugoslav Wars. Serbia and Montenegro went on to form the union of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1992, a union which lasted until 2006 when Montenegro declared independence.
The main political cleavage in the last two decades has centered on the question of EU accession and Serbia’s close relationship with Russia, as well as the legacy of the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s. In the early 2000s, a pro-West coalition governed for roughly a decade, and made progress in arresting war criminals, apologizing for war crimes in Srebrenica and Vukovar and pursuing EU membership. But these efforts also faced nationalist backlash, most violently seen in the 2003 assassination of Zoran Đinđić, Serbia’s reformist Prime Minister. Serbia’s stance towards Kosovo, which was previously part of Serbia and is predominantly populated by Kosovar Albanians, remains a focal point of political debate, despite its independence in 2008 (which Serbia doesn’t recognize) and a 2023 agreement on normalization of relations. However, the pro-West parties and the nationalists take similar positions on the issues which define these main cleavages. Most pro-West parties oppose recognizing Kosovar independence, along with the nationalists. While maintaining strong ties with Russia, the nationalists are also pro-EU, a position that was previously exclusive to the pro-Western wing. The ethnic Albanian minority in southern Serbia has accused authorities of discrimination, especially through removals from the population register (particularly in the past decade), a practice deemed “administrative ethnic cleansing”, limiting their rights as citizens and reducing their official numbers in Serbia.
Economic stagnation after the global financial crisis drove dissatisfaction, contributing to the nationalist opposition's rise to power in 2012. Since then, the ruling elite has consolidated power and appointed loyalists to key institutions. Pro-government media dominates, and independent outlets are often subject to government pressure and hostility. Opposition voices, civil society, and activists encounter intimidation and pressure. International observers said that the 2023 elections, which were followed by large protests, were undermined by the involvement of the President, overwhelming ruling party advantage, vote buying and ballot box stuffing. The judiciary, despite efforts to align with the EU requirements, is subject to political pressure, and corruption is widespread. The authorities have been continuously accused of breaching minority rights, especially of the Albanians and the Roma.
GSoD Indices data show that Serbia is a high performer in Gender Equality. Despite the adoption of reforms promoting equality, implementation is slow, resulting in ongoing underrepresentation of women in almost all sectors. Domestic violence and femicide are widespread. The LGBTQIA+ community is often challenged by the government and traditional society, and has been exposed to homophobic attacks. Same-sex marriage is not recognized.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Rule of Law, especially the Absence of Corruption, in light of the adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy (2024-2028). Particular attention should be paid to Civil Liberties, especially Freedom of Expression, Freedom of the Press, and Freedom of Association and Assembly, in light of reports of crackdowns and intimidation against opposition voices, journalists, and activists by authorities. Participation should be closely monitored to assess the impact of these restrictions on Civil Society and Civic Engagement. Lastly, Social Group Equality should be watched following ongoing reports of rights violations against minorities and the LGBTQIA+ community.
Last updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
January 2025
Protests, road blockades and strikes against corruption; PM resigns
After widespread protests in response to the deadly canopy collapse at Novi Sad train station in November 2024, Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, who was Novi Sad's Mayor at the time of the reconstruction of the train station, has resigned. Protests have been led by students and included major traffic blockages, marches from Belgrade to Novi Sad and school strikes. The protest on 22 December, which reportedly attracted around 100,000 people, became one of the largest in the country’s history. Protesters have blamed corruption as a factor in the canopy collapse and demanded full transparency in the case. They also protested against the alleged pro-government bias of the public broadcaster. President Aleksandar Vučić claimed the students were being financed by “Western powers.” There were also reports of violence against protesters, with one incident involving a man deliberately driving into a woman at high speed. As of 1 February, the protests were still ongoing.
Sources: Danas, Euractiv, Balkan Insight (1), Balkan Insight (2), European Western Balkans (1), European Western Balkans (2), Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, International IDEA
December 2024
Report reveals authorities' use of spyware against journalists and activists
On 16 December, Amnesty International reported that Serbian authorities used advanced spyware alongside other digital tools to hack the phones of activists and journalists. The report documented the use of NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware, alongside NoviSpy spyware system, and the misuse of Cellebrite’s UFED mobile forensics tools, which Serbia received in 2019 as part of its EU integration efforts. Serbia's intelligence agency (BIA) rejected the claims and said it works “in accordance with the laws". Legal experts said that Serbian law provides no legal basis for the BIA's use of spyware. Journalists and civil society groups, which have faced ongoing crackdowns, described this as an attack on civil society, press freedom, privacy, freedom of expression, and association. Amnesty International reported spyware use in the country in 2023, without confirming government involvement. Serbia ranked among Europe's top countries for Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation in 2023.
Sources: Amnesty International (1), Amnesty International (2), Balkan Insight (1), Balkan Insight (2), Security Information Agency, Article 19, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), International IDEA (3)
‘Foreign agents’ draft law enters parliamentary procedure
On 29 November, the Draft Law on a Special Register of Foreign Influence Agents was submitted to Parliament by members of the Movement of Socialists, a ruling coalition member led by Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin. Local media reported that the legislation "quietly entered parliamentary procedure" without the usual announcements. The proposed law mandates organizations receiving over 50 per cent foreign funding to register as "foreign agents," with harsh penalties for non-compliance. Supporters claim it promotes transparency, arguing some foreign-funded NGOs oppose Serbia's national interests. Critics warn the legislation threatens freedom of expression and civil society and their operations. The European Economic and Social Committee—an EU consultative body—said the legislation is “incompatible with the fundamental values” of the EU and jeopardises democratic values, human rights, and European integration of Serbia. The draft law has been compared to recent legislation in Georgia, Hungary, and Russia. As a next step, the law will go through regular parliamentary review.
Sources: Narodna skupština Republike Srbije, Nedeljne informativne novine (NIN), Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA), Pokret Socijalista, European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, International IDEA
November 2024
Railway station tragedy sparks tensions and calls for accountability
On 1 November, a canopy collapse at the Novi Sad railway station claimed 15 lives, triggering tensions and one of the largest protests in recent years in Northern Serbia. The station was renovated as part of a Chinese-led project, completed in July 2024. The tensions led to violence in protests—marked by arrests, including those of opposition members, and in Parliament, where MPs had physical clashes after the opposition was denied a debate on accountability. The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Novi Sad announced an investigation into public officials and individuals involved in the construction. The public has expressed concerns that the probe did not extend to financial irregularities or corruption, particularly involving the local subcontractor company, which has previously been awarded major government projects. Two ministers and the acting director of railway infrastructure resigned. It will be important to watch how the ongoing investigation will be handled in terms of transparency and accountability, especially given the high distrust of citizens in judiciary.
Sources: Balkan Insight (1), Balkan Insight (2), Danas, Nedeljne informativne novine (NIN), Radar, Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Novi Sad, International Republican Institute
August 2024
Revived lithium-mining project causes mass protest
Following around 50 protests since June, a mass demonstration against lithium mining on 10 August drew around 30,000 participants, ending with the blockade of two train stations and several arrests. Three activists were handed what were deemed harsh penalties by legal experts—one receiving 40 days of detention and two others 30 days—for “disturbing public order,” though the ruling was overturned for all of them on appeal on 13 August. The protest targeted a plan to open a lithium mine by the Australian-British consortium Rio Tinto, with activists urging a law to permanently ban lithium mining. Despite the project's potential economic benefits, citizens fear it will pollute land and water and disrupt local communities. The project, initially cancelled in 2022 after mass protests, was revived in July without proper public or civil society consultation when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič secured deals for EU carmakers to access Serbian lithium. Government officials dismissed the protest as politically motivated.
Sources: Danas, Politico (1), Politico (2), Reuters, European Western Balkans
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