Serbia
Serbia is one of the six constituent republics of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). It performs in the mid-range in all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework, although its performance in Representation is on the lower end of mid-range. Over the last five years, Serbia has experienced significant declines in several aspects of Representation (Credible Elections, Elected Government, and Effective Parliament), as well as in Civil Liberties and Freedom of Association and Assembly. Serbia is an upper-middle-income country and an official candidate for European Union membership.
The main political cleavage in the last two decades has centered on the question of EU accession and Serbia’s close relationship with Russia, as well as the legacy of the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s. Its history with Kosovo is particularly contentious. The latter, which had been part of Serbia, was placed under UN administration and declared independence in 2008. Serbia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence. At the time, Kosovo was the country’s southernmost province and simultaneously the spiritual heartland of Serbian Orthodoxy, but largely populated by Kosovar Albanians. In the early 2000s, a pro-West coalition governed for roughly a decade, and made progress in arresting war criminals, apologizing for war crimes in Srebrenica and Vukovar and pursuing EU membership. But these efforts also faced nationalist backlash, most violently seen in the 2003 assassination of Zoran Đinđić – Serbia’s reformist Prime Minister – at the hands of mobsters with ties to a special forces unit from the previous era. Ultimately, economic stagnation after the global financial crisis (by one measure, real incomes in 2013 were no greater than incomes in 1971) drove dissatisfaction and swept the nationalist opposition to power in 2012.
In the decade since, Aleksandar Vučić has consolidated power and established his party (the SNS – Srpska Napredna Stranka) as the only game in town. However, the pro-West parties and the nationalists who have governed since 2012 take similar positions on the issues which define these main cleavages. The pro-West parties steadfastly oppose recognizing Kosovar independence, along with the nationalists, and the nationalists are now pro-EU (a position previously held only by the pro-West reformers). Vučić is widely understood to run the country as President, even though the Constitution establishes the Prime Minister (currently Ana Brnabić) as chief executive. Pro-government media dominates the landscape, and independent outlets are often subject to outright intimidation. Elections are generally representative, but voting has been marred by irregularities, including physical intimidation. In the judicial arena, practices have been aligned with EU requirements, but the system continues to be subject to political pressure.
GSoD Indices data show that Serbia is a mid-range performer on gender equality, recording steady advances over the past twenty years. Nevertheless, structural inequality – exhibited in discrimination against women in the labour market and violence against women – persist.
Looking ahead, Serbian politics is liable to be shaped by its relations with Kosovo, EU accession, and the emergence (or not) of a credible challenge to the incumbents. In the first two areas, there has been little sign of movement. The Brussels Agreement – designed to normalize relations with Kosovo – remains to be fully implemented. Additionally, Serbia has continued to be Russia’s ally despite the war in Ukraine, and for the first time, a majority of Serbs now oppose joining the EU. In the domestic arena, concerns over environmental, quality of life, and corruption issues have increasingly driven political opposition and mass-mobilization. It will be important to watch whether these sentiments will translate to meaningful and consistent gains for opposition parties.
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
January 2024
Secret service arrests and tortures opposition politician
Opposition politician Nikola Sandulović was taken by the Serbian Security Information Agency (BIA) on 3 January and was arrested on 4 January on suspicion of “inciting racial, national and religious hatred” after publishing a video in which he apologized for war crimes committed by Serbs in Kosovo. Sandulović claims that while in BIA custody, he was beaten and tortured by a group of men, including Milan Radoičić and three others who had been involved in the EU-labeled terrorist attack in Banjska, Kosovo in September. Radoičić has been taking refuge in Serbia despite an Interpol arrest warrant. Sandulović reportedly suffered severe injuries and was paralysed on one side of his body. Aleksandar Vulin, the US-sanctioned former intelligence chief of Serbia, confirmed that he ordered the detention but said that no violence was used. On 15 January, Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe’s (PACE) rapporteur on political prisoners, called on Serbian authorities to carry out an independent investigation of the allegations. Shortly after, Sandulović was released.
Sources: PACE, Euractiv (1), Euractiv (2), The Guardian, bne IntelliNews, Radio Television of Serbia, Politika, Balkan Insight
December 2023
Country holds early elections
Early parliamentary, local and Vojvodina provincial elections were held on 17 December. Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Must Not Stop electoral list led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won nearly 47 per cent of the vote, while opposition parties under the Serbia Against Violence (SPN) won nearly 24 per cent. Although President Vučić did not participate as a candidate, he campaigned alongside Serbia Must Not Stop, pledging new roads, hospitals, one-time cash bonuses, and that Kosovo will be part of Serbia. SPN claims it won the elections, especially in Belgrade, and called for annulment. The electoral process was marred by reports of irregularities and led to weeks of protests and international condemnation. The electoral commission decided to have a rerun in 30 polling stations (0.38 percent of the polling stations). International observers said that voters had political alternatives but that elections were undermined by the involvement of the President, the overwhelming ruling party advantage, vote buying and ballot box stuffing. Women will hold 38 per cent of parliament seats, up from the previous 35 per cent. Voter turnout stood at 58 per cent.
Sources: The Government of the Republic of Serbia, The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), B92, Deutsche Welle, Euractiv, Euronews, OSCE ODHIR, Inter-Parliamentary Union, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2)
Electoral fraud reports trigger protests and international condemnation
Following reports of electoral fraud in the 17 December elections, tens of thousands protested, opposition figures went on hunger strike, and student organizations staged blockades. Police violence and arrests ensued when supporters of the opposition, Serbia Against Violence, tried to break into Belgrade’s city hall by smashing windows. The opposition suspects the involvement of agents provocateurs in the incident. President Vučić and Russian authorities attributed the turmoil to foreign interference, while Prime Minister Ana Brnabić thanked the Russian secret service for information on the opposition. EU election observers reported organized voters from Republika Srpska (RS) and cases of intimidation. Authorities claim only citizens voted. Of the alleged 40,000 voters from RS, Brnabić says 20,360 crossed the border on voting day, with only about 15,000 voting. Germany deemed accusations of electoral misconduct for an EU candidate country unacceptable. MEPs along with 24 senior European foreign affairs politicians, called for an independent investigation. During a European Parliament plenary session, most speakers criticized the elections.
Sources: N1, Euractiv (1), Euractiv (2), Euractiv (3), European Western Balkans, British Broadcasting Corporation, Politico (1), Politico (2), The Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, OSCE ODHIR, International IDEA
November 2023
Rights organisations confirm use of advanced spyware against government’s critics
Research by Amnesty International and civil society organizations confirmed that two pro-democracy activists and critics of the government were subjected to spyware ahead of the December elections. There is no confirmation that this is a government-perpetrated attack. Test results also signalled that the attacks are coherent with the Israeli cyber-intelligence NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware. The confirmation comes following notifications two civil society representatives received from Apple, indicating they were probable targets of state-sponsored spyware.
Sources: Euractiv, The Guardian, Beta, Amnesty International, Balkan Insight
October 2023
Parliaments adopts two controversial media laws
The Serbian parliament has voted in favour of the Law on Public Information and Media, along with amendments to the Law on Electronic Media. Under the new legislation, the government gains the ability to own media outlets through Telekom Serbia, a telecommunications company partly owned by the state. Currently, Telekom's operations include cable television, internet services, the telephone operator Supernova, and more than 20 media platforms. The Independent Journalists Association of Serbia is concerned the legislation will result in extended influence of Telekom. Opposition parties, journalist associations, civil society, and media freedom watchdogs, including Reporters Without Borders and Article-19, said that the new legislation could increase state control over the media. The government and MPs from the ruling party contend that the legislation adheres to the constitution, the Media Strategy, and the EU Audiovisual Directive.
Sources: Balkan Insight, Euractiv, European Western Balkans, N1, Koalicija Za Slobodu Medij, Reporters Without Borders, Article 19
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GSoD Indices Data 2014-2023
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