Somalia
Somalia performs at a low level across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework. It is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent of countries across most factors. Even so, compared to 2018, Somalia has seen improvements in Access to Justice and Freedom of Expression. Somalia is classified as a “least developed country”, has low GDP growth, and its main sources of income comes from agriculture – including livestock raising, crops and fisheries – foreign aid and remittances. It is perceived to be one of the world’s most corrupt countries, and has struggled with both a high poverty rate, and food insecurity –both of which have been affected by recurrent drought, floods and internal instability.
Present-day Somalia has for centuries been an important place for trade and migration due to its position between sub-Saharan Africa and the countries of Arabia and southwestern Asia. Formerly an Italian colony and a British protectorate, Somalia gained independence in 1960. The country’s third president, Mohamed Siad Barre, exercised dictatorial power from 1969 until 1991 when he was overthrown, sparking a complex decades-long civil war. Since then, the country has operated without an effective state structure and has been considered one of the most fragile countries in the world. The northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland are notable exceptions to general instability, as the regions (while not recognized as independent by the international community) have pursued their own paths of political development. A new president, Hassan Mohamud, was elected indirectly in 2022 on pledges of reform, but progress has been slow. The constitutional reform process has included proposals that have been vigorously rejected by some political actors, including the government of Puntland.
Economic and territorial disputes between clan groups constitute Somalia’s primary cleavage, as the country has struggled to build a unified national political identity. Minority and marginalized communities, estimated to comprise 30 per cent of the population, have faced a long history of discrimination. The consolidation of the state is also impaired by militant group al-Shabaab’s effective control of significant portions of central and southern Somalia. A military campaign led by the African Union (AU), with the support from the United States and other Western partners, against al-Shabaab has yielded mixed results. More recently, increased fighting across several regions of Somalia has led to attacks on civilians and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, including to neighboring countries where Somali refugees often face discrimination.
Gender-based violence is extensive across the country. For instance, Somalia has the highest rate of female genital mutilation (FGM) in the world, with 98 per cent of girls between the ages of 5 and 11 having undergone the procedure. The country is also vulnerable to recurring climate-related hazards and the frequency of droughts and flash floods has increased in Somalia over the past decades. Finally, poor public health and healthcare, education, and infrastructure remains weak, disrupted by decades of conflict and inadequate investments in critical services.
Looking ahead, it will be important to particularly monitor developments that relate to the security situation and to constitutional reform. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is planned to be withdrawn by the end of 2024 and replaced with a smaller force. The changing security environment may have impacts on Personal Integrity and Security and Basic Welfare. The constitutional reform process has touched upon fundamental questions, with implications for national unity, the electoral system, and at a high level the vision of democracy that Somalia may follow. Indicators such as Inclusive Suffrage, Effective Parliament, and Elected Government should be monitored.
(Last updated September 2024)
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
March 2024
Constitutional amendments establish directly elected presidency
A package of constitutional amendments was approved by both chambers of the Somali parliament on 30 March. The amendments will significantly change the office of the president. Instead of the current indirect electoral system under which clans select the members of the parliament, which then elects the president, the president will be directly elected under a system of universal suffrage. The term of office will also be extended from four to five years, and the president will gain the power to dismiss the prime minister (previously a power held by the parliament). Another aspect of the amendments is the establishment of a multi-party system with three political parties. The amendments also address the rights of children, setting the ‘age of maturity’ at 15, which advocacy groups argue will maintain a high level of child marriage, particularly for girls. The constitutional amendments have been opposed by many influential actors in Somalia, including the governments of Puntland and Somaliland, and two former presidents. The previous system - with a divided executive - was intended to share power between clans, and these amendments may undermine that. Under the process agreed upon in January, the amendments will remain provisional until there is agreement with the regional government of Somaliland and a referendum is held.
Sources: The Standard, Africa News (1), Garowe Online (1), Africa News (2), Africa Confidential, Garowe Online (2)
December 2023
Puntland state reverses plan to establish universal suffrage
In December, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland abandoned a plan to move from a clan-based electoral system to one with universal suffrage. State President Said Abdullahi Deni’s original announcement of the move to universal suffrage in May was met with protests from opposition politicians and a brief period of violence in which at least 26 people died. Since the plan has been abandoned, the parliament remains selected by the leaders of clans across the state, while the state president is elected by the parliament. A new state parliament was sworn in on 1 January 2024, and President Deni was re-elected by the state parliament on 8 January 2024.
Sources: The East African, Reuters, Wardheer News, Garowe Online, United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia, International IDEA
August 2023
Somalia bans social media platforms TikTok and Telegram
On 20 August, Somalia’s government issued an order indefinitely banning popular social media platforms TikTok and Telegram, alongside an online betting app 1xBet. The order, which came into effect on 24 August, cited concerns about the use of the platforms by terrorists (the al-Shabab militant group regularly uses Telegram’s messaging service to publish its videos press releases) and ‘groups spreading immorality’. As part of its ‘total war’ against al-Shabab, the government has recently tightened restrictions on traditional media and was reported to have shut down dozens of social media accounts, but this is the first time it has cut off access to social media platforms. Rights groups have stated that total bans on social media platforms represent disproportionate restrictions on freedom of expression and breach international human rights standards.
Sources: Somali National Television News, Voice of America, The Africa Report, International IDEA Human Rights Watch, Access Now
June 2023
Fighting erupts in Puntland as parliament debates electoral changes
At least 26 people were reported to have died in fighting that erupted on 20 June in Somalia’s semi-autonomous state of Puntland, as its parliament debated constitutional changes intended to further the state’s ongoing transition to direct elections. Up until May 2023, when it held its first direct local elections, Puntland had used an indirect, clan-based electoral system. The fighting was between the state’s security forces and fighters loyal to the political opposition, who accuse Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi of using electoral reform to hold onto power. Such mistrust between the political elite has hindered the state’s long-delayed transition to universal suffrage, and analysts believe that it could impede progress towards holding direct elections for Puntland’s state parliament and presidency and for federal offices.
Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera, The Peace Research Institute Oslo, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
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