Belarus
Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe, with low performance across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. It is in the bottom 25 per cent of performers across all categories, with significant declines in factors of Participation, Rights and Rule of Law over the last five years. Although an upper middle-income country, it largely maintained its centralized Soviet-era economic model, and is primarily dependent on agricultural and heavy industry exports to Russia. Belarus tried to stake out an independent middle ground between the European Union and Russia, but the sharp turn towards deepening autocracy following the 2020 election protests has led to increasing political dependence on Russia in recent years.
Through the dominance of state-owned enterprises and preservation of much of the Soviet-era economic architecture, Belarus mostly avoided the consequences of rapid privatization and the growth of economic inequality characteristic of most post-Soviet states. President Lukashenka has long dominated Belarusian politics and, currently in his sixth term, is the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenka gradually consolidated his personal power through socioeconomic co-optation and violent, and at times deadly, persecution of all political opponents. Constitutional referendums held in 1996, 2004, and 2022 led to further consolidation of power in the hands of the president. As a consequence of Belarus’ centralization, the primary political cleavage has long been between a bloc of passive support – or toleration – of Lukashenka’s regime and those who reject it on a variety of political or economic grounds. Nevertheless, Belarus saw significant public protest following the disputed 2006 and 2010 presidential elections and against socioeconomic policies in 2017.
The sole exception to Belarus’ tightly managed economic history was in its IT sector, which saw rapid growth and international success in the 2010s. That success fueled the growth of a largely Lukashenka-skeptic urban middle class, which, together with independent trade unions, proved to be one of the key drivers of the months-long nationwide protests demanding the resignation of Lukashenka following the 2020 presidential election. Prior to the election, Lukashenka arrested his key political opponents and rejected their attempts to register their candidacies. Public support concentrated around the candidacy of the wife of one of the arrested candidates, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who contested the official results. Protesters numbered in the hundreds of thousands, and state responded with an unprecedented crackdown involving tens of thousands arbitrary arrests, torture, and a mass surveillance regime. All major opposition politicians and civil society leaders were either jailed or forced out of the country and independent media blocked and arrested. There are thousands of internationally recognized political prisoners in Belarus and tens of thousands of activists and citizens have fled the country since 2020. Neither the United States nor the European Union recognized the results, the latter imposing sanctions targeting responsible Belarusian individuals and companies. Globally, Belarus ranks high on gender equality, though gender gaps continue to exist in education, labour market and wage. GSoD Indices data show declines in gender equality performance over the past five years. Yet women’s roles in the resistance against Lukashenka has been vital, and women activists (in exile) continue to be key drivers in pro-democracy movements despite the challenging environment.
As a result of the protests and crackdown, Belarus is now diplomatically isolated from every country in the region, save Russia, and is becoming increasingly implicated in that country’s full-scale war on Ukraine. Given its near-total dependence on Russia, Belarus’s political future is tied up with the unpredictable outcome of Russia’s war on Ukraine. In the absence of a sea change in regional politics, the ongoing declines in Participation, Rights and Rule of Law are likely to continue as the Lukashenka regime continues to expand the scope and scale of its repression to maintain control over the public.
Updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
February 2024
Elections reach new low in Belarus
Belarus parliamentary and local elections held on 25 February were the first contest since the massive crackdown on all forms of political expression and activism that followed the 2020 elections. Only parties loyal to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka were permitted to participate and local activists reported that public employees were being forced to take part. Nobel laureate Viasna Human Rights Centre said elections were held under “conditions of incessant repression; in the virtual absence of freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association; in a climate of total fear and political purge.” No election in independent Belarus has ever been judged free or fair, and for the first time the country refused to permit international observers to attend.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Associated Press, Viasna, Belta, Belarusian Election Commission (Telegram)
Belarus holds parliamentary and local elections
Belarus held parliamentary elections on 25 February for 110 seats in the lower house and 12,000 seats on local councils. The opposition boycotted or was refused registration, meaning all 110 MPs are members of parties loyal to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. 36 of 110 MPs in the incoming parliament are women, down from 44 in the previous parliament. The Election Commission reported 73 per cent turnout, which could not be independently verified. No independent election observers were present.
Sources: Deutsche Welle, Associated Press
November 2023
Belarusians must receive permission to move abroad
New regulations published on 20 November say that Belarusians who plan to leave the country to take up permanent residence elsewhere must now receive permission from the Citizenship and Migration Department before departing. Citizens were previously asked to register at a consulate. Applicants must now also file a wide range of personal documentation, including relatives’ contact details, and officials will check if the applicant is barred from leaving the country for any reason.
October 2023
Last democratic opposition party deregistered
On 29 September the Supreme Court of Belarus upheld the deregistration by the Ministry of Justice of the last political party opposing President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in the country, Belarusian Left Party "A Just World." The party had split from the former Belarusian Communist Party in the 1990s and had supported liberal opposition parties and the popular protest movement in recent years.
Sources: Zerkalo, Nasha Niva
September 2023
No new passports for Belarusians abroad
Belarus will no longer renew or issue new passports to its citizens abroad, according to a decree signed by President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. An estimated 200,000 to 1 million Belarusian citizens live outside the country, and human rights advocates condemned the explicit limits on freedom of movement as well as the implicit threat to journalists, activists and political opposition who have moved outside the country to avoid harassment by security services as well as the risk of torture and imprisonment. Lithuania, which is home to an estimated 58,000 Belarusian citizens, has announced plans to begin issuing “foreign passports” to Belarusians who did not want to comply. The US State Department condemned the Belarusian government’s move and said it was in “close consultation” with European countries to find ways to support Belarusian expatriates.
Sources: Meduza, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, International Federation for Human Rights
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
Basic Information
Human Rights Treaties
State party
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Performance by category over the last 6 months
Representation
Rights
Rule of law
Participation
Global State of Democracy Indices
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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