Venezuela
Venezuela exhibits low performance across all four categories of democracy. Over the past five years, Venezuela has experienced significant decline in the Economic Equality factor. It is a lower-middle income country, with a low GDP in comparison to others in the region. Although it possesses the largest oil reserves in the world and has figured among the top oil producers in the past, misuse of revenues has led to a decline in oil output. Additionally, dependence on oil has left the country vulnerable to oscillations in commodity prices.
In the 1980s, social discontent followed the adoption of IMF-recommended liberalizing policies, which resulted in the 100 per cent increase in the price of fuel and considerable hikes in the price of public transportation. Instability culminated in two coup attempts in the early 1990s and launched Hugo Chavez into power in 1998. His “Bolivarian Revolution” prioritized nationalism and social welfare over liberalism. Chavez also led the drafting of a new constitution, which allowed him to rule by decree, end term limits, restrict the work of independent media outlets, and virtually take control of the Supreme Court. Chavez died in 2013.
In 2014, a drop in the international price of oil led to Venezuela’s economic collapse with devastating social impacts. Social unrest descended into mass protests in 2014 and 2017, which were met with violent crackdown by the government. Meanwhile, the contested (and fraudulent) elections of 2018 divided the country, as the opposition-controlled National Assembly declared the leader of the legislature, to be president. Between 2019 and 2021, Nicolas Maduro’s government took violent measures to repress adversaries, which international experts have described as crimes against humanity. Despite negotiations between the government and opposition in the lead up to the 2024 elections to establish conditions for credible elections, the opposition faced multiple hurdles to nominate a candidate. The Venezuelan diaspora faced restrictions as well. The 28 July elections lacked transparency, with election officials withholding electoral records, and observers and voters facing intimidation. The Maduro-friendly electoral body proclaimed him winner, sparking massive protests that have been violently repressed. The opposition’s Unitary Platform claimed victory, recognized by several actors, and its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez was forced to flee after an arrest warrant was issued against him.
The prevalence of gender-based violence and trafficking of women and girls are significant challenges, as are women’s access to sexual and reproductive health. Abortion is criminalized in all cases except when the mother’s health is at risk, and severe restrictions impede access to adequate care.
According to 2011 government data, most of the population self identifies as either Brown-skinned (“moreno”) or white. There are small minorities of Black and Indigenous communities. The constitution and other legal provisions recognize the multiethnic and multicultural character of the nation; however, racial minorities have been particularly impacted by poverty and setbacks to social and economic rights. Extractive activity and lack of legal recognition to ancestral land rights have resulted in the internal displacement and migration of thousands of Indigenous persons to neighboring countries, many applying for asylum.
Going forward, it will be important to watch performance in Rights, particularly Civil Liberties, as restrictions on protests against the government have increased. As Venezuela grows increasingly isolated, the impact of potential economic sanctions on Economic Equality should be followed as well. Whether the government will engage in dialogue with the opposition, will continue to impact Representation scores, as Rule of Law continues its downward trajectory.
Last Updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
August 2024
Repression of anti-Maduro protests and opposition intensifies
At least 24 people have been killed, many injured and thousands arrested in the context of protests against the unsubstantiated claims that Nicolas Maduro was reelected in the 28 July election. Some of those detained have been charged with crimes of terrorism and inciting hatred. Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia was forced to flee Venezuela in early September after an arrest warrant was issued against him. Other prominent opposition politicians have also been arrested. In this context, the government suspended the operation of social media platform X for ten days. Reprisals against members of the press and dissidents have been such, that groups of journalists have opted to disseminate the news through AI-created avatars.
Vote tallies collected by opposition observers appear to support the Unitary Front’s assertion of an opposition victory. However, the regime-friendly Supreme Court has sided with Maduro and confirmed his re-election claims.
Sources: DW, Infobae, El Universo, The Guardian,
July 2024
Maduro-allied election officials proclaim him winner of presidential election
On 28 July, Venezuela held presidential elections. According to the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE), a Maduro-allied body, incumbent Nicolas Maduro was re-elected with 51 per cent of votes, with the Unitary Platform’s candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, obtaining 44 per cent of votes. Voter turnout was 59 per cent. The CNE did not substantiate the results and did not make electoral records public. All ten candidates running in the election were men. Maria Corina Machado, who had received overwhelming support during last year’s primary elections, had been banned from running for the opposition’s Unitary Platform. The opposition claimed fraud and stated their electoral records showed the Unitary Platform candidate had won the election. Electoral observers, leaders within the region and other analysts have cast doubt on the results, as these have not been made public.
Sources: Transparencia Electoral, Deutche Welle, InfoBae (1), International IDEA, Infobae (2)
Venezuela election marred with irregularities
The 28 July presidential election was marred with irregularities, and opposition leaders have claimed there was fraud. Numerous hurdles to the participation of opposition candidates included a ban against the winner of the opposition primaries, Maria Corina Machado, as well as Corina Yoris. Members of the Venezuelan diaspora further faced obstacles to register to vote from abroad, as officials demanded requirements not established in law. The National Electoral Council (CNE), a Maduro-friendly body, claimed the incumbent had been re-elected, despite showing no electoral records to substantiate the results. Thousands of people have taken to the streets to protest the results, decrying fraud. According to the top Prosecutor’s office, at least 1,000 people were detained in the context of protests, for allegedly turning to violence.
Sources: France 24, Infobae, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), Deutsche Welle
April 2024
Registration to vote from abroad marred by irregularities and delays
Members of the Venezuelan diaspora have encountered significant issues when trying to register for the first time or change their information to cast their vote for the 28 July election. The National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral-CNE) announced that citizens would be able to register from abroad between 18 March to 16 April, yet many have faced numerous hurdles. These issues have been particularly evident in Argentina, a country with a large Venezuelan diaspora. There, the electoral registration began two weeks after the set time and was only announced through informal channels. Similar accounts of delays and irregularities have been seen throughout Latin America. Other prerequisites to vote, not foreseen in Venezuela's electoral framework, have also been added by Maduro's government, making registration from abroad more costly and timely. Thus, even though Venezuelan citizens might be registered, some cannot afford to go through the process of voting from abroad.
Sources: Caracas Chronicles, Radio France Internationale, The Associated Press
New anti-fascism bill receives preliminary approval
A bill known as the ‘Law against Fascism, Neofascism and Similar Expressions’ received preliminary approval from the legislature on 2 April. The bill establishes a broad and ambiguous definition of fascism, in contravention of human rights standards. Critics have expressed their concern over this bill, as it would increase criminalization of President Nicolas Maduro's political opponents and dissent. Its provisions include potential restrictions to free speech and freedom of assembly and association as a consequence of prohibitions on organizations and demonstrations that ‘glorify fascism’. Incitement to or ‘carrying out violent actions as a means or way to exercise political rights’ may carry a sentence of eight to twelve years imprisonment and ineligibility to hold public office.
Sources: El País, Amnesty International
March 2024
Opposition’s aspiring candidate unable to register candidacy
Venezuela’s opposition is facing fragmentation as Corina Yoris, Maria Corina Machado’s preferred choice to run in her place in the upcoming elections, was unable to register as presidential candidate in the National Electoral Council’s portal. Machado, who had won the opposition’s October primaries by a landslide, had rallied opposition parties behind Yoris before her candidacy was rejected in a measure deemed as arbitrary by national and international experts. The governor of Zulia, Manuel Rosales, who has been a part of the Unitary Platform, the opposition’s alliance, was able to register his candidacy, but not without criticism within the opposition, due to the lack of internal agreement. Social Democrat leader Enrique Marquez, and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the Platform’s preferred choice to serve as temporary candidate, were also able to register while negotiations with the government continue.
Sources: El Pais, Infobae, Voz de America
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