
Venezuela

Venezuela exhibits low performance across all four categories of democracy. Over the past five years, Venezuela has experienced significant decline in the Economic Equality factor. It is a lower-middle income country, with a low GDP in comparison to others in the region. Although it possesses the largest oil reserves in the world and has figured among the top oil producers in the past, misuse of revenues has led to a decline in oil output. Additionally, dependence on oil has left the country vulnerable to oscillations in commodity prices.
In the 1980s, social discontent followed the adoption of IMF-recommended liberalizing policies, which resulted in the 100 per cent increase in the price of fuel and considerable hikes in the price of public transportation. Instability culminated in two coup attempts in the early 1990s and launched Hugo Chavez into power in 1998. His “Bolivarian Revolution” prioritized nationalism and social welfare over liberalism. Chavez also led the drafting of a new constitution, which allowed him to rule by decree, end term limits, restrict the work of independent media outlets, and virtually take control of the Supreme Court. Chavez died in 2013.
In 2014, a drop in the international price of oil led to Venezuela’s economic collapse with devastating social impacts. Social unrest descended into mass protests in 2014 and 2017, which were met with violent crackdown by the government. Meanwhile, the contested (and fraudulent) elections of 2018 divided the country, as the opposition-controlled National Assembly declared the leader of the legislature, to be president. Between 2019 and 2021, Nicolas Maduro’s government took violent measures to repress adversaries, which international experts have described as crimes against humanity. Despite negotiations between the government and opposition in the lead up to the 2024 elections to establish conditions for credible elections, the opposition faced multiple hurdles to nominate a candidate. The Venezuelan diaspora faced restrictions as well. The 28 July elections lacked transparency, with election officials withholding electoral records, and observers and voters facing intimidation. The Maduro-friendly electoral body proclaimed him winner, sparking massive protests that have been violently repressed. The opposition’s Unitary Platform claimed victory, recognized by several actors, and its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez was forced to flee after an arrest warrant was issued against him.
The prevalence of gender-based violence and trafficking of women and girls are significant challenges, as are women’s access to sexual and reproductive health. Abortion is criminalized in all cases except when the mother’s health is at risk, and severe restrictions impede access to adequate care.
According to 2011 government data, most of the population self identifies as either Brown-skinned (“moreno”) or white. There are small minorities of Black and Indigenous communities. The constitution and other legal provisions recognize the multiethnic and multicultural character of the nation; however, racial minorities have been particularly impacted by poverty and setbacks to social and economic rights. Extractive activity and lack of legal recognition to ancestral land rights have resulted in the internal displacement and migration of thousands of Indigenous persons to neighboring countries, many applying for asylum.
Going forward, it will be important to watch performance in Rights, particularly Civil Liberties, as restrictions on protests against the government have increased. As Venezuela grows increasingly isolated, the impact of potential economic sanctions on Economic Equality should be followed as well. Whether the government will engage in dialogue with the opposition, will continue to impact Representation scores, as Rule of Law continues its downward trajectory.
Last Updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
May 2025
Elections are held for legislature and regional governments
On 25 May, Venezuela held elections to choose National Assembly deputies, local lawmakers and regional governments. According to the National Electoral Council, the ruling party (Simon Bolivar Great Patriotic Pole) attained 82.6 per cent of votes for parliament, and 23 out of 24 governorships. Notably, ballots included options for the election of government in the Essequibo, an area over which Guyana and Venezuela have had disputes in recent years (and over which a majority in the international community recognize Guyanese sovereignty). The Electoral Council estimated voter turnout to be around 42.6 per cent (an increase from 30.5 per cent from the last parliamentary elections of 2020). The opposition disputes the data and claims absenteeism was around 85 per cent. Five of the elected governors were women; official data on the number of women winning seats in the legislature is pending. No independent international electoral observation missions were present for election.
Sources: BBC, The Guardian, France 24, El Pais
November 2024
National Assembly criminalizes support of international sanctions
The National Assembly unanimously approved legislation known as the Simón Bolívar Law, which will criminalize any support or calls for international sanctions against the government of Nicolás Maduro. It was promulgated on 29 November. People in any way involved with promoting international sanctions against Venezuela will face punishment of up to 30 years imprisonment and up to one million euros in fines. The legislation also classifies international sanctions as crimes against humanity and establishes a national registry of people who are alleged to have taken part in promoting sanctions, who could face other measures such as having their assets frozen or, in the case of foreigners, being expelled from the country. Earlier in November, prosecutors announced an investigation into Maria Corina Machado, leader of the opposition, for treason, for allegedly supporting new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela.
Sources: France 24, BBC, El Pais (1), El Pais (2), Asamblea Nacional
August 2024
Repression of anti-Maduro protests and opposition intensifies
At least 24 people have been killed, many injured and thousands arrested in the context of protests against the unsubstantiated claims that Nicolas Maduro was reelected in the 28 July election. Some of those detained have been charged with crimes of terrorism and inciting hatred. Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia was forced to flee Venezuela in early September after an arrest warrant was issued against him. Other prominent opposition politicians have also been arrested. In this context, the government suspended the operation of social media platform X for ten days. Reprisals against members of the press and dissidents have been such, that groups of journalists have opted to disseminate the news through AI-created avatars.
Vote tallies collected by opposition observers appear to support the Unitary Front’s assertion of an opposition victory. However, the regime-friendly Supreme Court has sided with Maduro and confirmed his re-election claims.
Sources: DW, Infobae, El Universo, The Guardian,
July 2024
Maduro-allied election officials proclaim him winner of presidential election
On 28 July, Venezuela held presidential elections. According to the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE), a Maduro-allied body, incumbent Nicolas Maduro was re-elected with 51 per cent of votes, with the Unitary Platform’s candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, obtaining 44 per cent of votes. Voter turnout was 59 per cent. The CNE did not substantiate the results and did not make electoral records public. All ten candidates running in the election were men. Maria Corina Machado, who had received overwhelming support during last year’s primary elections, had been banned from running for the opposition’s Unitary Platform. The opposition claimed fraud and stated their electoral records showed the Unitary Platform candidate had won the election. Electoral observers, leaders within the region and other analysts have cast doubt on the results, as these have not been made public.
Sources: Transparencia Electoral, Deutche Welle, InfoBae (1), International IDEA, Infobae (2)
Venezuela election marred with irregularities
The 28 July presidential election was marred with irregularities, and opposition leaders have claimed there was fraud. Numerous hurdles to the participation of opposition candidates included a ban against the winner of the opposition primaries, Maria Corina Machado, as well as Corina Yoris. Members of the Venezuelan diaspora further faced obstacles to register to vote from abroad, as officials demanded requirements not established in law. The National Electoral Council (CNE), a Maduro-friendly body, claimed the incumbent had been re-elected, despite showing no electoral records to substantiate the results. Thousands of people have taken to the streets to protest the results, decrying fraud. According to the top Prosecutor’s office, at least 1,000 people were detained in the context of protests, for allegedly turning to violence.
Sources: France 24, Infobae, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), Deutsche Welle
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