Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan exhibits low-range performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework and is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent of countries in a majority of factors of democratic performance. Since the death of Uzbekistan’s longtime dictator Islam Karimov in 2016, the country has seen advances in Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Religion, Judicial Independence, Predictable Enforcement and Rule of Law. His successor President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has overseen a period of gradual economic liberalization and a more ambiguous political opening. However, opportunities for employment remain weak, and remittances from the estimated 2 million Uzbeks who work abroad (mostly in Russia and Kazakhstan) account for 17 per cent of the country’s GDP.
Following its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan resisted structural reforms recommended by western economists and domestic liberalizers. It thus avoided the economic collapses and recessions that plagued most post-Soviet economies but was also shut off from international financial markets and lenders. A dismal human rights record further contributed to growing international and regional isolation, and the focus of government policy increasingly became regime stability. Karimov maintained control through violent repression and the maintenance of a cult of personality, while ministries and economic sectors were divided up among competing clans.
When the massacre of hundreds of peaceful protesters in the city of Andijan in 2005 was met with international criticism, President Karimov largely shut off the country from the outside world and imprisoned or forced into exile much of the country’s human rights community and political opposition. While President Mirziyoyev dismantled some of the old security architecture and economic openness has significantly increased, separating genuine reform efforts from behind-the-scenes elite competition remains challenging. A constitutional referendum in 2023 that was pitched as modernizing the state-society relationship instead largely served as vehicle to legalize Mirziyoyev’s ability to stay in power for decades to come. The liberalization-induced construction boom has led to frequent public social and political conflicts over demolitions, evictions, and the deprivation of housing rights.
The modern nation of Uzbekistan is the intellectual project of the nineteenth and early twentieth century modernizing Islamic movement, Jadidism. In additional to scientific and educational reforms, the Jadids helped to construct a common Uzbek identity tracing back through the region’s long history of powerful – and in noted contrast to Uzbekistan’s neighbors’ nomadic history – sedentary ‘Islamicate’ political entities. Ethnic Uzbeks make up the large majority of the population, and the state has long adopted an “out of sight, out of mind” approach towards minority populations – neither keeping reliable official statistics nor addressing discrimination that does occur. Uzbekistan has often struggled to balance regional autonomy and national control, as well as find space for transnational socioeconomic networks in a region where drawn borders were never intended to be international. This has led to repeated bouts of unrest between the central government and local populations over intertwined ethnic, religious, and economic concerns in the Ferghana Valley in the east and Karakalpakstan in the west.
Gender-based violence and restrictive patriarchal norms are widespread, although in April 2023 women’s rights activists successfully lobbied the country’s parliament to criminalize domestic violence.
Looking ahead, positive growth in Rights may be impacted as labor exploitation is shifted between economic sectors, as may Representation as the opposition political parties continue to struggle with basic processes such as registration. Potential short- and medium-term impacts of climate change on the region are not well-researched, but the state’s struggles to capably manage access to natural resources, as well as its inability to stop the disappearance of the Aral Sea, suggest that even moderate impacts could be destabilizing and apply downward pressure on Political Equality.
Last Updated: June 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
October 2024
Parliamentary elections held
Uzbekistan held elections for the Qonunchilik palatasi, the lower house of parliament, on 27 October. The ruling Uzbekistan Liberal Democratic Party increased its representation in the 150-seat chamber from 53 to 64. All five parties who participated in the election are loyal to the government of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said, “the political environment remained constrained, not providing voters with a genuine choice.” Voter turnout was 75.35 per cent, up from 67.80 per cent in 2019. This election was the first to take place with a gender quota requiring 40 per cent, rather than 30 per cent, of candidates to be women. The new parliament will have 57 women MPs, up from 47 in the previous sitting.
Sources: Gazeta.uz, OSCE, International Parliamentary Union
September 2024
Law allows government to ban ‘undesirable’ foreigners
The upper house of Uzbekistan’s parliament amended the ‘law on the legal status of foreign citizens’ on 20 September to empower the government to ban ‘undesirable’ foreign citizens from entering the country. Any non-citizen can be declared undesirable at the Uzbek government’s discretion if their words or actions are interpreted to somehow threaten the country’s sovereignty or insult its people. Analysts say the law was likely prompted by threats made to the country’s territorial integrity by right-wing Russian politicians in recent years. Critics and rights activists are concerned its broad application and lack of judicial oversight will be used to silence or dampen criticism of human rights abuses in the country. Successive Uzbek governments have refused visas or otherwise prevented human rights investigators and journalists from entering the countries, and experts worry the amended law will be used to entrench and expand this practice.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (1), Article 19, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (2), Kun.uz
September 2023
Government steps up pressure on Islam
The Uzbek government has taken progressive steps to limit the practice of Islam in 2023, raising fears the country is returning to the draconian restrictions under former president Islam Karimov, who died in 2016. Restrictions and interrogations of observant Muslims have increased in 2023, prison terms for sharing religious content on social media are more common, and the prime minister has reportedly instructed public servants to choose between government and religion. Furthermore, regular contact with the United Nations special rapporteur on religious freedom and the US Commission on International Religious Freedom have ceased.
Sources: The Diplomat, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Kun.uz
July 2023
Mirziyoyev re-elected
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was re-elected for a seven-year term on 9 July in a snap election called after a referendum rewrote the country’s constitution and extended presidential terms from five to seven years. The Central Election Commission reported Mirziyoyev received 87 per cent of the vote with over 80 per cent turnout in an election environment without any meaningful public participation or tangible opposition. Independent media reported a lackluster campaign with a foregone conclusion, and election observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe reported “serious irregularities … challenging the integrity of the [electoral] process.” As the recent constitutional changes also reset the incumbent’s number of terms in office to zero, Mirziyoyev, who is 65, is now poised to stay in power at least until 2037.
Sources: Eurasianet, OSCE
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