Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) performs in the mid-range across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy, though its Rule of Law and Representation scores are on the lower end of mid-range. Between 2018-2023, BiH declined in Credible Elections and Elected Government, and has not seen any significant advances. There have been no significant changes compared to five years ago. BiH is an upper-middle-income country, with important services, manufacturing and agricultural industries.
Although Bosnia and Herzegovina was declared a kingdom in 1377, it lacked autonomy for much of its history, including over 400 years under Ottoman rule. It established its current borders in 1946 when it became a federal unit within Yugoslavia. In a 1992 referendum, Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Croats voted overwhelmingly for secession from Yugoslavia, while Serbs predominantly boycotted the vote, preferring to remain attached to a Serb-dominated Yugoslavia. After the vote, BiH declared its independence and received international recognition. Almost immediately, fighting broke out, resulting in the Bosnian War, one of the deadliest in Europe since the Second World War. The Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brokered by the United States in 1995 put an end to the war and enshrined Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs as the country’s three constituent peoples and establishing what some call the world’s most complicated governance system. The link between ethnicity and representation established by the DPA has led to the strengthening of ethnic political elites and the emergence of a system often characterized as an ethnocracy or as an ethnically-based kleptocracy. Over the years, Republika Srpska (RS) has favoured close ties with neighbouring Serbia and with Russia, and has undermined BiH’s accession to the European Union, negotiations for which have been ongoing since March 2024.
Constitutional discrimination against ethnic minorities of non-constituent peoples, including the Roma minority, remains a challenge. The grievances related to war atrocities, particularly the Srebrenica Massacre (ruled a genocide), continue to shape the country’s politics. In 2024, the United Nations General Assembly approved the Srebrenica Genocide Resolution, leading to intensified calls for secession from the RS leadership and exacerbating concerns about genocide denial. The country has struggled with economic stagnation, emigration and brain drain, and a loss of faith in government institutions. Another sticking point is elections, which continue to be marred by allegations of discrimination as well as biased media coverage and divisive rhetoric limiting public debate.
With regards to Gender Equality, GSoD Indices data show that BiH performs at the mid-range. Legislation, policies and institutional mechanisms related to gender equality and anti-discrimination are in place, yet implementation of policies is uneven. Discrimination at work, threats against women and LGBTQIA+ activists, gender-based violence and impediments to equal political participation persist.
Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor recent legislation passed in RS granting the entity exclusive authority over conducting elections and organising referendums in RS for impacts on Credible Elections and Predictable Enforcement. Rule of Law can also be affected by the EU integration process. Attention should be paid to specific efforts to counter terrorism and money laundering, and prevent potential conflicts of interest among public officials, including the adoption of the Anti-Corruption Strategy in 2024. It will also be important to watch Personal Integrity and Security, as memories of the war loom large, secessionist threats from the leadership of Republika Srpska escalate, and ongoing ethnic tensions strengthen. With the decreased trust in institutions, many voters remain apathetic, cynical, and risk-averse. As a result, Participation (particularly Civic Engagement) and Political Equality will be key to future progress.
Last Updated: August 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
July 2024
New laws create parallel electoral system in Republika Srpska
On 17 July, two new laws - the Election Law and the Civil Initiative Law - entered into force in Republika Srpska (RS), one of the two entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). These laws grant RS exclusive authority over conducting elections and organising referendums within the entity. The Election Law seeks to establish a Republic Election Commission, which would take over the responsibilities of BiH’s Central Electoral Commission for organizing elections within RS, including elections for the entity’s Parliament, President and Vice President, and local elections. However, on 24 July, the BiH Constitutional Court temporarily suspended the laws, with the Court’s final decision still pending. Representatives of the Peace Implementation Council’s Steering Board, created after the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, expressed concern in a joint statement that these laws could threaten the integrity of local elections scheduled for October.
Sources: International IDEA, Slobodna Evropa, Faktor, Office of the High Representative, Balkan Insight, RFE/RL
June 2024
Council of Ministers adopts anti-corruption strategy
On 18 June, the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) adopted a Strategy for the Fight against Corruption, covering 2024-2028, and an accompanying Action Plan for Implementation. The Strategy is consistent with the 14 key priorities needed for EU membership. The Strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of law enforcement agencies, tax authorities, judicial bodies, and other institutions involved in tackling corruption in BiH. It also seeks to boost information exchange and cooperation between institutions in BiH and across borders. BiH had been without an anti-corruption strategy at the state-level since 2019, when the previous strategy expired. A 2023 evaluation report from the Council of Europe’s corruption monitoring body GRECO noted a “legal vacuum” in state-level corruption prevention policy. The Strategy and Action Plan enter into force in July, and BiH’s national anti-corruption agency (APIK) will be responsible for monitoring their implementation.
Sources: Council of Ministers (1), Council of Ministers (2), OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina, European Western Balkans, Radio Sarajevo, GRECO, Official Gazette
March 2024
International overseer imposes technical changes to electoral process
On 26 March, the Office of the High Representative (OHR), an international body that oversees the 1995 peace agreement, used its “Bonn powers” to amend the law in the interests of improving electoral integrity This occurred in a context marked by the attempts from Republika Sprska’s (RS) Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) to block the legislation in December 2023. HDZ said reforms failed to resolve Croat representation, while SNSD insisted on replacing Central Election Commission members before the amendment. The amendments include the digitalisation of the electoral process, barring convicted war criminals from running for office, and enhancing campaign finance transparency to prevent voter manipulation. The OHR provided for a brief grace period for BiH parliamentarians to find a common solution before the legislation enters into force. The changes are planned to be rolled out in general elections scheduled for 2026, and as a pilot, subject to technological capacity, in local elections in October 2024.
Sources: Balkan Insight (1), Balkan Insight (2), Reuters, Office of the High Representative (1), Office of the High Representative (2), International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), European External Action Service, N1
EU agrees to launch accession negotiations
The European Commission recommended that the European Union open accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina on 12 March, and the members of the European Council agreed on 22 March. As a condition for future membership, the EU says Bosnia and Herzegovina must commit to a wide range of reforms, including to improve the functioning of the judiciary, counteract corruption and organized crime, strengthen border and migration management, and to promote reconciliation in light of the legacies of the war. In its decision, the European Commission pointed to recent progress, including legislation on the prevention of conflicts of interest passed by Parliament on 8 March, improving transparency on the assets and activities of public officials.
Sources: European Commission (1), European Commission (2), International IDEA, N1, European Western Balkans (1), European Western Balkans (2)
February 2024
Parliament passes reforms to counter terrorism and money laundering
On 16 February, Parliament adopted reforms aimed at preventing organized crime, corruption and terrorism. The law introduces additional reporting and identification requirements for cash transactions exceeding EUR 15,000 (for financial institutions, businesses and regular citizens engaged in certain financial activities). Additionally, the law requires enhanced checks for clients deemed at a risk of money laundering, financing terrorism, or spreading weapons of mass destruction according to specific conditions (such as geographic area, service, or transaction method). The law further broadens the kinds of institutions subject to anti-laundering regulations, and covers cryptocurrency service providers for the first time. It also promotes international cooperation as well as collaboration and information exchange between domestic authorities, including the establishment of a coordination body to oversee implementation of the law and fulfilment of international obligations. The law is a key step towards harmonization with EU regulations and towards opening accession negotiations with the EU, for which a decision from the European Commission is expected in March.
Sources: European External Action Service, OSCE, Al Jazeera, VOA, Radio Slobodna Evropa, OHCHR, European Western Balkans, Official Gazette of Bosnia and Herzegovina
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