Burundi
Burundi exhibits low-range performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework, falling among the world’s bottom 25 per cent of countries in the majority of factors of democratic performance. Over the last five years, it has experienced advances in Access to Justice, Freedom of the Press, Absence of Corruption, and Predictable Enforcement. Burundi is a low-income, poorly diversified economy, with 80 per cent of the population employed in agriculture.
In 1890, Burundi and Rwanda were incorporated into the German Protectorate of East Africa, which was conceded to Belgium following World War I. Colonial rule favoured the Tutsi ethnic group, which created politicized cleavages between the Hutus and Tutsis. Since its independence in 1962, Burundi has been ruled by the National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) – a rebel-movement (during the 1993-2005 Burundian Civil War) turned political party.
Ethnically-based conflict over access to resources has included 12 years of civil war (1993-2005) and four violent massacres (in 1965, 1977, 1988, and 1993). In 2005, power-sharing between political parties and ethnic groups was enshrined in the Arusha agreement and a new constitution. Though ethnic violence has decreased, state-perpetrated violence and human rights violations mar the political landscape. Today, party affiliation is the main political fault line, though CNDD–FDD remains firmly in control, having almost entirely co-opted the country’s institutions. This co-optation has resulted in serious limits to power-sharing and executive accountability, and in 2015 allowed the then-President Pierre Nkurunziza to run for a third term despite a two-term constitutional limit; a move that prompted a coup attempt and widespread unrest. The regime’s violent response to these events led to international isolation and sanctions. In recent years, the CNDD-FDD system has made some concessions with regards to civil liberties, but the political climate remains highly intolerant of dissent, and much of the opposition is in exile. In 2023, the main opposition party, the National Freedom Council (CNL), was suspended. The government faces armed opposition from a number of rebel groups, most notably the RED-Tabara, which is based in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in recent years has stepped up its attacks in Burundi.
Burundi is composed of three main ethnic groups: the Hutus (85 per cent), Tutsis (14 per cent) and Twa (Batwa) (1 per cent). The Twa, descended from the original forest-dwelling inhabitants of Burundi, are mostly landless and economically marginalized. Reserved parliamentary seats exist for the Twa. Though a constitutional gender quota has helped bolster women’s political representation and legal protections from sexual violence and exploitation of women and girls exist, discriminatory laws and traditional practices persist. Women also lack control over economic resources. Same-sex sexual activity has been criminalised since 2009, with a recent case of a court charging 24 people under the LGBTQIA+ law.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch indicators of Rights, considering the loosening of some restrictions on the civic space, including the lifting of media bans. It will also be important to watch the developments towards eliminating ethnic quotas, which may mark the end of the last vestiges of the Arusha Agreement. It will be critical to monitor the divisions within the CNDD-FDD, which are reported to have deepened in response to the reform agenda, highlighting the country’s continued political fragility, as the country prepares to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in 2025.
(Last updated July 2024)
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
December 2024
Opposition candidates blocked from upcoming elections
On 31 December, Burundi’s electoral commission disqualified all candidates from the main opposition party, National Freedom Council (Congrès national pour la liberté, CNL), and the only political coalition – Burundi Bwa Bose (Burundi for All) – set to contest the June 2025 legislative elections. The Burundi for All coalition, officially recognized by the interior ministry on 17 December, was barred because three of its four candidates are current CNL lawmakers, violating electoral laws which prohibit candidates from representing a suspended party. Political analysts believe the decision specifically targets the most competitive opposition figures, including Agathon Rwasa, the former CNL leader and presidential runner-up. Opposition groups condemned the decision as an attempt to eliminate competition, ahead of the elections.
Sources: SOS Médias Burundi, New Vision, News Central, Barron’s, Le Monde
November 2024
Mass clemency reduces prison overcrowding
On 20 November, Burundi initiated the release of 4,000 prisoners, constituting roughly 40 per cent of the country’s prison population, as part of President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s clemency decree aimed at alleviating chronic overcrowding. Prison facilities, operating at over 300 per cent capacity, have long been criticized for harsh conditions, including severe overcrowding that compromises prisoner safety, sanitation, and access to basic necessities like food and healthcare. The clemency prioritized those convicted of minor offenses and nearing the end of their sentences. However, opposition groups criticized the measure for excluding political prisoners, who number between 4,000 and 5,000, many of whom are reportedly members of opposition political parties. Local monitors have welcomed the move as a necessary step but stressed the need for broader reforms to address systemic issues in the penal system.
Sources: SOS Media Burundi, Voice of America – Africa (1), Voice of America – Africa (2), Independent Online
December 2023
Rebel group RED-Tabara kills civilians in attack near border
The RED-Tabara (Resistance for the Rule of Law in Burundi), rebel group launched two attacks on Burundian soil in December: one an engagement with the Burundian military and the other an attack on a village near the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (where the group is based). In the latter attack, 20 people were reportedly killed, 19 of whom were civilians, including 12 children. These were the first attacks by the group in Burundi since 2021. RED-Tabara opposes the government of Évariste Ndayishimiye, and is alleged to be connected to the opposition party Movement for Solidarity and Development (MSD). The attacks also increased the level of tensions between Burundi and neighbouring Rwanda, after Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye directly accused Rwanda of materially supporting the RED-Tabara group.
Sources: Africa News, Associated Press, Voice of America
June 2023
Burundi’s main opposition party suspended
On 6 June, Burundi’s Minister of Interior, Martin Niteretse announced that his office had suspended the country’s main opposition party, the National Freedom Council (CNL). In a letter communicating the decision to the CNL, the Minister cited ‘irregularities’ during two recent party congresses, in which several CNL members were ousted from the party over their opposition to its President. In May, Niteretse had challenged the decisions taken during the congresses, on the grounds that they had not been conducted in compliance with the party’s statutes and had demanded that the CNL’s president unite with its ousted members. The CNL, however, alleged the suspension was an unconstitutional interference in its affairs and an attempt to destabilise the party ahead of the 2025 legislative elections. Shortly after the suspension was announced, at least 16 CNL activists were reported to have been arbitrarily arrested and detained on spurious charges of holding an illegal meeting. The ruling party has long used Burundi’s police force to repress opposition party activists, but civil society monitors said the situation had deteriorated since the CNL’s suspension.
Sources: Voice of America, Africa News, Radio France Internationale, SOS - Torture/Burundi, Human Rights Watch
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