In March, the United Nations (UN) reported that at least 70,000 people fleeing conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo had crossed into Burundi since the start of the year, marking the country’s largest refugee influx in decades. The majority of new arrivals are women, children, and the elderly. Many are living in overcrowded transit camps, schools, churches, and stadiums, with some sleeping in open fields. The UN described conditions in the camps as ‘extremely dire.’ The crisis is worsening food insecurity across Burundi, where over 70 per cent of the population already struggles to meet basic needs and nearly 56 per cent of children under five suffer from stunting (impaired growth due to malnutrition), further complicating humanitarian support efforts. The World Food Programme is providing hot meals to new arrivals but cut rations for existing refugees in March–from 75 per cent to 50 per cent of the full food entitlement–due to limited resources.

Sources: News Central, United Nations, The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, World Food Programme, Associated Press, Reuters

On 31 December, Burundi’s electoral commission disqualified all candidates from the main opposition party, National Freedom Council (Congrès national pour la liberté, CNL), and the only political coalition – Burundi Bwa Bose (Burundi for All) – set to contest the June 2025 legislative elections. The Burundi for All coalition, officially recognized by the interior ministry on 17 December, was barred because three of its four candidates are current CNL lawmakers, violating electoral laws which prohibit candidates from representing a suspended party. Political analysts believe the decision specifically targets the most competitive opposition figures, including Agathon Rwasa, the former CNL leader and presidential runner-up. Opposition groups condemned the decision as an attempt to eliminate competition, ahead of the elections.

Sources: SOS Médias Burundi, New Vision, News Central, Barron’s, Le Monde

On 20 November, Burundi initiated the release of 4,000 prisoners, constituting roughly 40 per cent of the country’s prison population, as part of President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s clemency decree aimed at alleviating chronic overcrowding. Prison facilities, operating at over 300 per cent capacity, have long been criticized for harsh conditions, including severe overcrowding that compromises prisoner safety, sanitation, and access to basic necessities like food and healthcare. The clemency prioritized those convicted of minor offenses and nearing the end of their sentences. However, opposition groups criticized the measure for excluding political prisoners, who number between 4,000 and 5,000, many of whom are reportedly members of opposition political parties. Local monitors have welcomed the move as a necessary step but stressed the need for broader reforms to address systemic issues in the penal system.

Sources: SOS Media Burundi, Voice of America – Africa (1), Voice of America – Africa (2), Independent Online

The RED-Tabara (Resistance for the Rule of Law in Burundi), rebel group launched two attacks on Burundian soil in December: one an engagement with the Burundian military and the other an attack on a village near the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (where the group is based). In the latter attack, 20 people were reportedly killed, 19 of whom were civilians, including 12 children. These were the first attacks by the group in Burundi since 2021. RED-Tabara opposes the government of Évariste Ndayishimiye, and is alleged to be connected to the opposition party Movement for Solidarity and Development (MSD). The attacks also increased the level of tensions between Burundi and neighbouring Rwanda, after Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye directly accused Rwanda of materially supporting the RED-Tabara group.

Sources: Africa News, Associated Press, Voice of America