Myanmar
With its central state institutions captured by an unlawful military regime and in the midst of Southeast Asia’s biggest conflict in decades, Myanmar performs in the low range across all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework and is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries with regard to most indicators. Over the last five years, it has suffered notable declines across the large majority of GSoD indicators, with a performance score of 0 in almost all measures of Representation. Most of these declines have occurred since February 2021, when the military overthrew the elected civilian-led government, ending a decade of tentative democratization that began in 2011, marked by power-sharing between the military and elected leaders. Myanmar’s economy has faced major reversals since the COVID-19 pandemic and the coup.
Myanmar has a long history of armed conflict in its peripheral regions, partly a result of its significant ethno-linguistic diversity (135 ethnic groups) and unsuccessful attempts by the military to impose a Buddhist-Bamar centric version of national identity. The Bamar group accounts for about 68 per cent of the population and has dominated the central government since independence from British rule in 1948, creating longstanding grievances among minority groups around the right to self-governance, limited resource sharing, social discrimination, and suppression of minority languages and cultures. Geopolitical rivalries further fueled the longstanding armed conflict between ethnic armed organizations struggling for more autonomy and self-determination, and the military, which instrumentalized Bamar ethno-nationalism during decades of arbitrary military rule. The Muslim Rohingya in Rakhine State have faced institutionalized discrimination including through an exclusionary citizenship law and have been subject to ethnic cleansing, as well as alleged genocide and crimes against humanity in 2016/17.
The 2021 coup was rejected by the people of Myanmar. The military’s brutal attempt to enforce its illegitimate claim to rule has led to unprecedented, multiple levels of crises nationwide, with the junta carrying out arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings and sexual violence, and targeting elected representatives and pro-democracy actors. A large and coordinated resistance movement has prevented the junta from consolidating power. National unity institutions – including the National Unity Government (NUG) – have made some progress in the political roadmap towards building a federal democratic union, and resistance groups have gained further momentum through coordinated attacks and control of more than half of Myanmar’s territory. The NUG struggles to exert state authority due to lack of control over state resources and faced with the emerging challenge of increased fragmentation. The post-coup civil war has led to tens of thousands of people being killed and more than three million people displaced; almost half of the population live in poverty. In terms of gender equality, although the gendered impacts of the coup have been profound, the coup created some momentum for change, with women at the forefront of the resistance and national unity institutions placing inclusion, diversity and equality at the center of processes, structures and policies.
Looking ahead, the junta will struggle to prevail despite its pursuit of ‘elections’ in 2025 and further intensification of attacks against civilians. It will be important to watch how the national unity institutions and ethnic armed groups are able to counteract the junta through strengthened coordination and avoid fragmentation while advancing the political roadmap, including the process of developing a transitional constitution. Increased political coordination (and not merely military cooperation) between the unity institutions and ethnic armed groups, presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly from the angle of democratic legitimacy. Finally, accountability for violations of international law, including against the Rohingya, will remain central to resolving the crisis.
Last updated: July 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
September 2024
Report shows major increase in number of citizens killed by military junta
The Myanmar military killed 50 per cent more civilians between April 2023 and June 2024 than during the previous fifteen-month period, according to a report published by the United Nations Human Rights Council (OHCHR) on 4 September. Between April 2023 and June 2024, the report concludes the junta’s military killed at least 2,400 people, including over 500 women and 300 children. Most deaths occurred in the most recent nine months covered in the report, indicating the intensity of attacks on civilians is still increasing. An International Crisis Group report argued this rise in attacks on civilians is a consequence of the junta losing control of the country and its borders in the ongoing civil war. The OHCHR report also found that the junta’s retaliatory, intensified airstrikes and artillery attacks against the anti-military armed groups since October 2023, have caused the spike in civilian deaths. They have also left over three million people displaced, half the population below the poverty line, and over 18 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.
Sources: Human Rights Council, New York Times, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group
August 2024
Violence against Rohingya escalates
On 5 August, the armed group Arakan Army (AA) reportedly killed as many as two hundred members of the Muslim Rohingya minority near the border to Bangladesh that were fleeing there after an attack on Maungdaw, a town in western Myanmar with a majority Rohingya population. According to Fortify Rights, the AA attacked due to the presence of fighters from the Rohingya Salvation Army (RSA), who have been cooperating with the Myanmar junta to fight the AA in western Myanmar. The AA accuses the Myanmar military of the attack. This recent attack marks the most severe escalation of violence against the Rohingya since 2017.
Sources: Reuters, Myanmar NOW, The Diplomat, Fortify Rights, Deutsche Welle (DW)
May 2024
Junta blocks military-aged men from working abroad
Myanmar’s military junta announced on 3 May that it would no longer allow conscription-aged men (18-35) to travel abroad for work and will suspend all work exit visas currently in process. The media have previously reported that tens of thousands of Myanmar citizens left the country since the junta began enforcing conscription in February 2024. Junta forces have reportedly suffered significant losses in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war and it has been forced to resort to conscription to continue to fill the military’s ranks.
March 2024
Junta begins military conscription
Myanmar’s military junta began conscripting men and women into the armed forces in March 2024 under the never-before-used 2010 People’s Military Service Law. Junta officials had announced in February that the process would begin in April, but various media reported the process began across the country in March. The junta has turned to conscription in the face of increasing military setbacks against armed resistance groups as well as defections and desertions. Media reports say conscription aged people are fleeing the country and that resistance has led to the deaths of some officials and others resigning rather that facing the risks of enforcing the law.
Sources: The Diplomat (1), British Broadcasting Corporation, Channel News Asia, The Diplomat (2), The Irrawaddy
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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