Myanmar
Myanmar performs in the lowest quartile across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework, with a performance score of 0 in nearly all Representation indicators. Comparing 2019 to 2024, its performance has also declined in all four categories and multiple factors. Most deterioration has occurred since the February 2021 coup, ending a decade of tentative democratization and reflecting both the ongoing civil conflict and the capture of the central state institutions by an unlawful military regime. Myanmar’s economy has faced stagnated since the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 coup and the 2025 earthquake.
Myanmar has a long history of armed conflict in its peripheral regions, partly a result of unsuccessful attempts to impose a Buddhist-Bamar centric version of national identity on its 135 ethnic groups. The Bamar group accounts for 68 per cent of the population and has dominated the central government since independence from British rule in 1948, creating longstanding grievances among minority groups around the right to self-governance, limited resource sharing, and suppression of minority languages and cultures. The Rohingya in Rakhine State have faced institutionalized discrimination, including through an exclusionary citizenship law. The Rohingya were subjected to ethnic cleansing and alleged genocide in 2016/17.
Myanmar has been under military rule for most of its post-independence history. A cautious transition to democracy began in 2010 in response to dissatisfaction with the regime and the need to stabilize the economy with foreign investment. This political opening led to major electoral victories for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in 2015 and 2020. The military responded to the latter election with a widely-rejected coup in February 2021. The subsequent violent crackdown targeted elected representatives and pro-democracy actors with arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings and sexual violence.
In response, the NLD and allies in the democratically-elected parliament formed the National Unity Government (NUG), which is the country’s legitimate government, operating both abroad and in liberated areas, sometimes with organized ethnic groups. Since the coup, the military has been unable to consolidate power and civil conflict has surged; anti-junta armed groups control over half of Myanmar’s territory as of October 2025.
The civil conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and displaced over three million people. Combined with the March 2025 earthquake’s devastation, nearly half the population now lives in poverty. Despite the coup’s severe gendered impacts, it has also spurred momentum for change. Women and human rights defenders lead the resistance, and national unity institutions emphasize inclusion, diversity and equality in their processes and policies.
The years 2025 and 2026 are likely to be pivotal for the country’s future. The junta abandoned the unconstitutional pretext of governing under a ‘state of emergency’ in July 2025, rebranded itself as the ‘interim government’ and announced plans to hold an ‘election’ between December 2025 and January 2026 to legitimize its rule. These ‘elections’ have been dismissed as illegitimate domestically and internationally. In parallel, pro-democracy alliances have advanced a political roadmap towards a federal democratic union to address the longstanding grievances over centralized rule.
It remains critical to watch for a creeping normalisation of international relations with the junta and whether national unity institutions and ethnic armed groups can maintain political cohesion while advancing a political roadmap for a federal democratic future. Accountability for international law violations, particularly against the Rohingya, will have major impacts on Social Group Equality and remains central to resolving the crisis.
Last updated: December 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
November 2025
Sham election campaign heightens uncertainty and risk
The military junta’s sixty-day campaign period for its illegitimate election began on 28 October, ushering in a new period of uncertainty and restrictions of speech. On 31 October, the junta announced it had arrested 88 people for criticizing the election under a law passed in July 2025 granting it wide-reaching authority to punish ‘disruption’ of the electoral process. The specific grounds for most of the arrests were unclear but included in the junta’s count were two directors of a junta propaganda film who reportedly ‘liked’ a local media outlet’s social media post. Junta-aligned media also reported that at least one election candidate had been detained by an unnamed resistance organization.
Sources: The Irrawaddy, Article 19, Al Jazeera, International IDEA
Report shows boom in unregulated mining
A report based in satellite data has documented a surge of unregulated rare earth, gold, silver and other mines, predominantly in Myanmar. Unregulated mining has increased significantly since the 2021 military coup, which both decimated the country’s formal economy and fractured effective control and oversight of natural resources between the military junta, the legitimate democratic government and ethnic armed organizations. The mines appear to be leaching hazardous minerals and chemicals into rivers that provide water to much of Southeast Asia, and unsafe levels of arsenic have been found in rivers in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia. The work in unlicensed and unregulated mining operations is also hazardous for workers, who suffer from respiratory issues, the risk of collapse and flooding, and a lack of recourse when accidents or labour rights violations occur.
Sources: Stimson Center, Yale Environment 360
August 2025
Military junta announces date for ‘election’, end to state of emergency
Myanmar’s military junta announced it would hold a national election on 28 December 2025, the first since it seized power in a coup in February 2021. The move is part of the junta’s effort to legitimize its claim on power through what the United Nations, the National Unity Government, and other domestic and international observers agree is a sham election. Given the lack of international legitimacy and the limited control the junta exercises over the country, the impact on the country’s politics and security are highly unpredictable and potentially volatile. While the junta announced an end to the national state of emergency, which it had used to rule by emergency decree since the coup, it also announced 63 local states of emergency, and there are no public indications of a meaningful return to constitutional rule. An additional law passed on 30 July punishes any ‘disruption’ of the electoral process, broadly defined to include speech or distributing critical texts, with three to ten years imprisonment.
Sources: France24, The Diplomat (1), The Irrawaddy, British Broadcasting Corporation, The Diplomat (2), Associated Press, International IDEA
April 2025
Deadly earthquake compounds post-coup crisis
A 7.9 magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on 28 March, with an epicentre in the northern Sagaing region. At least 3,700 people died across the country and thousands more were injured. The total number of casualties remains uncertain, as the military junta has obstructed aid workers and humanitarian assistance from reaching areas not under its control and restricts the entry of international journalists to the country. The National Unity Government and some ethnic armed organizations announced humanitarian ceasefires on 29 March to ensure aid and relief efforts could reach those affected. The junta initially reciprocated on 2 April but began carrying out airstrikes and artillery attacks within 24 hours, killing dozens in the week following the earthquake.
Sources: British Broadcasting Corporation, The Guardian, The Irrawaddy, The Diplomat, International IDEA
January 2025
New cybersecurity bill takes effect
Myanmar’s military junta enacted a new cybersecurity law on 1 January, which ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights described as “draconian legislation [that] is a calculated attempt by the junta to suppress dissent, stifle free expression, and violate the privacy of Myanmar’s citizens.” The law includes a wide range of penalties for digital platforms and users who circulate “disinformation” or “rumours” and requires the former to keep the names and personal details of users on file for authorities. It allows the junta to shut down any internet services on the grounds of state security, mandates up to six months in prison for distributing “inappropriate” information or for installing or using an “unauthorized” virtual private network (VPN), and specifies that it applies to Myanmar citizens abroad.
Sources : The Diplomat, ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, The Irrawaddy
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