Lebanon
Lebanon exhibits mid-level performance in the Representation, Rights and Participation categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. It performs in the low range with regard to Rule of Law. Over the last five years, GSoD data show significant declines in Economic Equality. Since 2019, a combination of factors, including government inaction on reforms and the lack of a fully functioning executive, have plunged the country into one of the worst economic crises in recent history. Consequently, the Lebanese pound has lost 98 per cent of its value, domestic prices have increased by more than 170 per cent, and poverty has surged affecting 44 per cent of the population.
Lebanon gained independence in 1943 after 23 years of French colonial rule. The country, known for its ethno-sectarian diversity— including sects of Shia and Sunni Muslims and Christians — has a complex political landscape shaped by a devastating civil war from 1975 to 1990. The 1989 Taif Agreement brought an end to the war by instituting power-sharing principles for its key executive and parliamentary positions, yet it failed to address the underlying conflicts, particularly concerning religious identity and refugees. The aftermath of the war solidified sectarian divisions in Lebanon's political sphere and facilitated the rise of influential militias and gave rise to hybrid security governance. Foreign involvement, notably the prolonged presence of Syrian military forces until 2005, significantly shaped the country's post-war dynamics. The assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri that year led to the political forces splitting into two main political blocs: the pro-Syrian March 8 alliance (including Hezbollah and Amal) and the anti-Syrian March 14 alliance (led by the Future Movement). Although the influence of these blocs has diminished, their legacies continue to impact current political discourse, particularly regarding Syrian refugees and Hezbollah's political and military role, contributing to endemic political instability in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s struggles today go beyond sectarian divisions, as the country struggles with governmental failures, from the lack of an inquiry into the 2020 Beirut port explosion to various economic crises and widespread corruption. These have exacerbated the existing socio-economic inequities. Women, disadvantaged by one of the world’s widest gender gaps and discriminatory legislation, have also disproportionately been affected by food insecurity and suffer from inequalities in labor market participation. The poor provision of basic public services has led to some healthcare and educational centers affiliated with communal groups, allowing for the social consolidation of Hezbollah. While in 2022, the Hezbollah-led bloc lost its majority in parliament, its involvement in politics has become a key state legitimacy challenge. This was evident in the repressive response to the massive 2019-2020 protests calling for constitutional and electoral reforms, which emerged from a public exhausted by economic meltdown, sectarianism, and corruption. Other salient issues have been the straining presence of over 1.5 million refugees, a presidential vacuum, and social welfare issues.
In this context, recent survey data show that a large majority of Lebanese citizens do not have confidence in their institutions, with particularly low numbers expressing confidence in access to justice and satisfaction with governance. A significant majority feel they are worse off than their parents.
Looking ahead, resolution of the current socioeconomic crisis is paramount. Democratization in Lebanon is dependent on the introduction of broad-reaching economic reforms and access to social protections as starting points for broader democratic progress.
Last Updated: June 2024
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January 2025
Parliament elects Joseph Aoun as president ending deadlock
On 9 January, the Lebanese parliament elected Joseph Aoun as president, ending a political deadlock of two years in which the country had been without a president. On 13 January, Aoun appointed Nawaf Salam, then President of the International Court of Justice, as prime minister, with 84 out of 128 MPs approving the designation. This development ends over two years of political impasse that stalled the presidential and prime ministerial elections and left Lebanon under a caretaker government with limited powers. PM Salam now faces the challenge of forming a new cabinet amid reports of persisting political fragmentation and external pressure over key ministerial appointments. The next parliamentary elections are expected to take place in 2026.
Sources: L’Orient Le Jour, Al Arabiya, Reuters, Al Jazeera, LBCI
November 2024
60-day ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel
A ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on 27 November. In September and October 2024, Israel had carried out a ground invasion of South Lebanon and intensified airstrikes across the country. Since October 2023, nearly 4,000 people have been killed and 1.2 million displaced. The 60-day ceasefire requires Hezbollah forces to retreat to the north of the Litani River, under the supervision of the Lebanese Armed Forces and the United Nations, and Israeli forces are to withdraw from South Lebanon. If maintained, the ceasefire could significantly reduce the level of violence and displacement. As part of a reported side deal to the ceasefire, the Lebanese Parliament will also convene on 9 January 2025 to elect a president, a position vacant since October 2022 due to political deadlock. Under the country's power-sharing system, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian.
Update: The ceasefire deal between Lebanon and Israel, initially set to expire on 28 January 2025, has been extended until 18 February.
Sources: National News Agency, L’Orient Today, Reuters, Associated Press, The National, Reuters (2)
September 2024
Israel heavily intensifies deadly attacks across Lebanon
Israel attacked Lebanon in September, causing major casualties, extensive destruction of civilian infrastructure, and mass displacement. On 17 and 18 September, coordinated explosions of manipulated handheld pagers and walkie-talkies distributed to alleged Hezbollah affiliates (including civilians), killed 32 people and injured over 3,250 others. UN experts condemned these attacks as ‘indiscriminate’ and potential war crimes. Israeli airstrikes intensified across the country, with the deadliest attack on 23 September killing 558 people and injuring 1,835 others, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. High-profile political assassinations took place, including the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, along with other senior members of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). However, most of the casualties were unarmed civilians, as reported by Lebanon’s Health Ministry. By the end of the month, 100,000 people had fled to Syria.
Sources: OHCHR, Al Jazeera, The New Arab, Lebanese Ministry of Health, UNFPA, UNHCR, Annahar
April 2024
Surge in anti-Syrian attacks after senior politician abducted and killed
The abduction and killing of politician Pascal Sleiman on 9 April, allegedly at the hands of several Syrians, has triggered a surge in attacks on Syrians living in Lebanon. Media have reported Syrians being assaulted on the street and the UN’s Refugee Agency, UNHCR, received reports from several towns of ‘local residents…issuing threats of mass evictions against Syrians, creating an environment of fear and intimidation.’ Anti-Syrian sentiment is widespread in Lebanon, with many Lebanese, including politicians, blaming the estimated two million Syrians living there for exacerbating the country’s socio-economic problems. Sleiman’s party, the Lebanese Forces, stated that it believed he had been assassinated, implying the involvement of their political rivals, Hezbollah. The allegation, which is denied by Hezbollah, raised fears of sectarian violence. At the end of April, six Syrians were charged with Sleiman’s abduction and murder and the Public Prosecutor said they had been motivated by a desire for a ransom payment.
Sources: The National, The Guardian, Reuters, France 24, Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International
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