Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan exhibits low-range performance in three of the categories of the Global State of Democracy framework: Representation, Rule of Law and Participation; it performs in the mid-range with regard to Rights. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the world with regard to several factors, especially related to Participation and Rights. Over the last five years, it has experienced virtually no shifts in its performance levels. An upper middle income country, the Kazakh economy is heavily reliant on the export of gas, oil, and other hydrocarbon products.
For centuries part of a nomadic empire populated by Turkic tribes, the area that is now Kazakhstan came under Russian Tsarist control in the early 19th century, and large scale Russian immigration and colonization began in earnest in the 1890s. After gaining independence in 1991, the political and economic landscape was long dominated by former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his extended family and allies as well as by his “economics first, politics later” approach. Nazarbayev’s rule was marked by increasing personalization until he stepped down in 2019 in favor of current President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev. Tokayev has since marginalized Nazarbayev, whose “the father of the nation” swiftly diminished and many of whose allies and relatives have been imprisoned or removed from positions of authority.
Political cleavages in Kazakhstan are mostly centered around financial-industrial groups, and the country’s closed stage-managed political environment means that much of this contestation remains behind the scenes. Ethnic Russians have long been the country’s largest minority, but have declined to 15 per cent of the population from a height of 42 per cent in the 1970s. The ethnic Russians who remain are increasingly bilingual and integrated into the ethnic Kazakh-dominated culture. While it has made more progress on gender equality than its Central Asian neighbors, significant gender gaps in government and in the workplace persist and gender-based violence remains widespread. The country is also highly unequal and plagued by grand corruption, with one 2019 study finding that 50 per cent of the country’s wealth was controlled by only 162 individuals.
Kazakhstan’s kleptocracy-fueled inequality has laid the ground for three mass protest movements triggered by social and economic grievances in 2011, 2016, and 2022. While the 2016 protests ended with an accommodating shift in government land policy, the 2011 and 2022 protests – both of which began in the western oil-producing town of Zhanaozen – were put down with deadly force. In both cases, the government denied any domestic roots for the protests and placed the blame on foreign provocateurs.
Following these events, President Tokayev oversaw a constitutional referendum ostensibly on decentralization and political reforms, but which in practice appear to be more focused on cementing his own power and permanently sidelining the Nazarbayev clan.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch the degree to which President Tokayev implements top-down democratic reforms, maintains the status quo, or pursues an even stricter authoritarian line. There are also concerns about the effects of an influx of hundreds of thousands of Russian draft dodgers, who do not share younger Kazakhstani Russians’ comfort with the dominant Kazakh culture, on the nation’s political and economic stability. It will also be important to watch how the government positions itself with regard to Russia, given the history of close ties. Since the war in Ukraine began, President Tokayev has carefully distanced his regime from Moscow.
Last updated: June 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
April 2024
Domestic violence criminalized
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed into law harsher punishments and prison time for domestic violence and related crimes. Domestic violence against women and children are now criminal offences and the responsibility for collecting evidence now lies with the police, rather than the victim. The law was lauded by local activists, United Nations officials and human rights organizations, but most also pointed out it does not go far enough: domestic violence is still not a crime in itself, there is no monitoring mechanism, and psychological and sexual violence are not covered. The law’s passage was powered by significant public support and a campaign of the family of Saltanant Nukenova, who was publicly beaten to death by her husband, former economy minister Kuandyk Bishimbayev, at an Astana restaurant in November 2023. Bishimbayev was sentenced to 24 years imprisonment on 13 May. The United Nations says about 400 Kazakh women die from domestic abuse annually.
Sources: Eurasianet, Human Rights Watch (1), Human Rights Watch (2)
January 2024
Draft bill targets foreign correspondents
Draft legislation introduced on 25 January would allow the Foreign Ministry to refuse foreign correspondents accreditation on undefined ‘national security’ grounds and introduce onerous registration requirements for online media. Online media will now have to maintain a physical office in the country and undergo mandatory registration, and unaccredited foreign media and correspondents will be banned from operating in the country. Of further concern is placing foreign accreditation solely under the purview of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, meaning refusals can be done without a court order or explanation and would not be subject to appeal. Domestic media and civil society and international press freedom watchdogs have urged parliament to reconsider.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, International Press Institute
November 2023
Familiar results in ‘pilot’ local elections
Three towns and 42 regional districts held gubernatorial elections for the first time in Kazakhstan’s history on 5 November. The “pilot” election process was the second and largest since the electoral code was changed to allow for direct elections in May 2021. The contested districts represent about eight per cent of the country’s population and turnout was officially 62.79 per cent. Local media and analysts reported that independent candidates were prevented from running and of numerous election and post-election irregularities. The ruling Amanat party won 37 of 45 races, and only two winners were not previously serving appointed officials. Ten of the 249 candidates were women, none of whom were elected.
Sources: Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting, The Diplomat, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Violent murder sparks national debate
The murder of a 31-year-old woman in a restaurant by her husband, the country’s former National Economy Minister, caused a national outcry over Kazakhstan’s long-standing issues with domestic violence. In addition to media attention and calls from human rights activists to criminalize domestic violence and abuse, a ruling Amanat party MP proposed criminalizing all forms of violence against women and children to be enforced by a specially-created agency, and President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev publicly instructed leading justice officials to give the case special attention. Official statistics show that about 400 women die annually from domestic violence, and cases are rarely investigated by law enforcement.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Human Rights Watch, Vlast.kz
October 2023
Mining giant subsidiary nationalized after deadly blast
At least 46 miners died in a botched safety test at a coal mine owned by international conglomerate ArcelorMittal in Karaganda, Kazakhstan on 28 October, leading the Kazakh government to finalize the nationalization of the scandal-ridden enterprise. More than 100 official deaths and constant accusations of disregard for worker safety and environmental degradation at ArcelorMittal facilities have been recorded over the past 15 years, with observers saying Kazakh authorities feared pressing the company would lead to the sorts of costly and drawn-out international lawsuits the country is engaged in over similar harms in its oil industry.
Sources: Eurasianet, Bloomberg News, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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