Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan exhibits low-range performance in three of the categories of the Global State of Democracy framework: Representation, Rule of Law and Participation; it performs in the mid-range with regard to Rights. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the world with regard to several factors, especially related to Participation and Rights. Over the last five years, it has experienced virtually no shifts in its performance levels. An upper middle income country, the Kazakh economy is heavily reliant on the export of gas, oil, and other hydrocarbon products.
For centuries part of a nomadic empire populated by Turkic tribes, the area that is now Kazakhstan came under Russian Tsarist control in the early 19th century, and large scale Russian immigration and colonization began in earnest in the 1890s. After gaining independence in 1991, the political and economic landscape was long dominated by former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his extended family and allies as well as by his “economics first, politics later” approach. Nazarbayev’s rule was marked by increasing personalization until he stepped down in 2019 in favor of current President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev. Tokayev has since marginalized Nazarbayev, whose “the father of the nation” swiftly diminished and many of whose allies and relatives have been imprisoned or removed from positions of authority.
Political cleavages in Kazakhstan are mostly centered around financial-industrial groups, and the country’s closed stage-managed political environment means that much of this contestation remains behind the scenes. Ethnic Russians have long been the country’s largest minority, but have declined to 15 per cent of the population from a height of 42 per cent in the 1970s. The ethnic Russians who remain are increasingly bilingual and integrated into the ethnic Kazakh-dominated culture. While it has made more progress on gender equality than its Central Asian neighbors, significant gender gaps in government and in the workplace persist and gender-based violence remains widespread. The country is also highly unequal and plagued by grand corruption, with one 2019 study finding that 50 per cent of the country’s wealth was controlled by only 162 individuals.
Kazakhstan’s kleptocracy-fueled inequality has laid the ground for three mass protest movements triggered by social and economic grievances in 2011, 2016, and 2022. While the 2016 protests ended with an accommodating shift in government land policy, the 2011 and 2022 protests – both of which began in the western oil-producing town of Zhanaozen – were put down with deadly force. In both cases, the government denied any domestic roots for the protests and placed the blame on foreign provocateurs.
Following these events, President Tokayev oversaw a constitutional referendum ostensibly on decentralization and political reforms, but which in practice appear to be more focused on cementing his own power and permanently sidelining the Nazarbayev clan.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch the degree to which President Tokayev implements top-down democratic reforms, maintains the status quo, or pursues an even stricter authoritarian line. There are also concerns about the effects of an influx of hundreds of thousands of Russian draft dodgers, who do not share younger Kazakhstani Russians’ comfort with the dominant Kazakh culture, on the nation’s political and economic stability. It will also be important to watch how the government positions itself with regard to Russia, given the history of close ties. Since the war in Ukraine began, President Tokayev has carefully distanced his regime from Moscow.
Last updated: June 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
January 2025
Satirist’s arrest signals crackdown on speech
Police raided the Almaty home of humorist Temirlan Yensebek on 17 January, apparently as part of an investigation into a song published on his satirical Instagram channel, QazNews24, in April 2024. Yensebek is charged with inciting ethnic hatred and faces up to seven years in jail, and observers and rights activists suggest the spurious nature of the charges indicates the government is primarily interested in dissuading critical speech – Yensebek frequently makes light of the country’s political leaders. The song in question mocked a Russian TV presenter who made unfounded and widely ridiculed claims that Kazakhstan was oppressing Russian-speaking Kazakhs. Public support for Yensebek has also been strictly punished, with several activists holding separate, legal one-person protests arrested and sentenced to weeks of detention or fines. Yensebek is currently serving two months of pre-trial detention.
Sources: Eurasianet, Factcheck.kz, Havli
Constitutional court’s ruling yields a small win for freedom of association
A Constitutional Court ruling on 21 January provided a small expansion of the freedom of association while otherwise disappointing petitioners’ hopes of overturning a law which grants local authorities broad powers to refuse permits for peaceful assemblies. The Court held the law ”On the procedure for organizing and holding peaceful assemblies” to be constitutional, but that akimats (regional administrations) cannot refuse a permit without providing a proposal for an alternative time and location at which the assembly can be held. The ruling goes into immediate effect across the country.
Sources: Radio Azattyq, Kursiv
June 2024
New media law worries journalists, advocates
A new media bill signed into law on 19 June has been criticized by journalists and civil society for ambiguity and some restrictive provisions that they say will further restrict media freedom in the country. The law grants authorities the ability to conduct “mass media monitoring” in order to root out undefined kinds of “extremism” and reclassifies all online journalism and blogs as mass media and requires outlets to maintain a physical and accredited presence in the country. While the law has some potentially positive aspects such as granting journalists with a special legal status that could provide additional legal protections against threats and harassment, media and human rights experts argue the law will only further limit media freedom in the country and urge the government to amend or repeal it.
Update: the law went into force in August 2024 and two violations carry a penalty of a loss of accreditation for six months.
Sources: Human Rights Watch, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Voice of America
April 2024
Domestic violence criminalized
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed into law harsher punishments and prison time for domestic violence and related crimes. Domestic violence against women and children are now criminal offences and the responsibility for collecting evidence now lies with the police, rather than the victim. The law was lauded by local activists, United Nations officials and human rights organizations, but most also pointed out it does not go far enough: domestic violence is still not a crime in itself, there is no monitoring mechanism, and psychological and sexual violence are not covered. The law’s passage was powered by significant public support and a campaign of the family of Saltanant Nukenova, who was publicly beaten to death by her husband, former economy minister Kuandyk Bishimbayev, at an Astana restaurant in November 2023. Bishimbayev was sentenced to 24 years imprisonment on 13 May. The United Nations says about 400 Kazakh women die from domestic abuse annually.
Sources: Eurasianet, Human Rights Watch (1), Human Rights Watch (2)
January 2024
Draft bill targets foreign correspondents
Draft legislation introduced on 25 January would allow the Foreign Ministry to refuse foreign correspondents accreditation on undefined ‘national security’ grounds and introduce onerous registration requirements for online media. Online media will now have to maintain a physical office in the country and undergo mandatory registration, and unaccredited foreign media and correspondents will be banned from operating in the country. Of further concern is placing foreign accreditation solely under the purview of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, meaning refusals can be done without a court order or explanation and would not be subject to appeal. Domestic media and civil society and international press freedom watchdogs have urged parliament to reconsider.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, International Press Institute
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