Nigeria
Nigeria is a lower-middle income country in West Africa that performs in the mid-range with regard to Representation, Rights, and Participation and in the low range for the Rule of Law. It falls in the top 25 per cent of countries in the world in Civic Engagement but is in the bottom 25 per cent for several other factors related mainly to Rights and the Rule of Law. Over the past five years, the country saw declines in Credible Elections and Elected Government; there were no notable improvements during this period. Nigeria’s history of civilian governance has been chequered with periods of authoritarian military rule, and its 2023 elections were impacted by logistical issues and violence. The country has the largest population in Africa and the seventh largest globally. Its economy, which relies in part on oil production, is experiencing its worst crisis in decades, resulting in soaring inflation that has dramatically increased the cost of living.
Present-day Nigeria was long-dominated by powerful kingdoms, including the Hausa in the north and the Yoruba in the south. It came under British control in the late 19th century. Nigeria gained its independence from Britain in 1960, but lasting legacies from colonialism persist and shape the political landscape. Contemporary political issues play out along religious, ethnic, and gender lines, which are exacerbated by the legacy of colonial-era divide-and-rule policies.
Nigeria is about evenly divided between Christians and Muslims, and this schism characterises the political challenges facing the Nigerian state; it was one aspect of the Biafran Civil War (1967-1970). Since 2009, Nigeria has faced a protracted terrorist threat in the North by extremist Islamist groups, such as Boko Haram, which seek to establish an Islamic state. The country is also ethnically plural, with hundreds of different groups, of which the four main ones are the Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo, and Fulani. Nigerian women and girls face significant inequities, as well as violence at the hands of groups like Boko Haram and the country’s military. Finally, same-sex conduct is criminalised in Nigeria and LGBTQIA+ people suffer high levels of governmental and societal discrimination, including arbitrary arrest and detention, black mail, extortion and violence.
Additionally, Nigeria faces sectarian threats and organised crime in its central and northwest regions, where criminal gangs loot villages, kidnap for ransom, and engage in cattle raiding. Nigeria’s economic hub in the south, the oil-rich Niger Delta region, has endured intractable inter- and intra-communal violence and conflict due to competition to control oil resources (including violent resistance to foreign oil companies), poor governance, and grievances with the allegedly ethnically discriminatory development policy of the central government. Poverty is a significant issue and is spatially concentrated in the north of the country, which is one of several reasons for Boko Haram’s emergence. The insecurity caused by these conflicts, coupled with the presence of endemic corruption, continues to strain the Nigerian economy.
The democratic health of Nigeria depends on the commitment by office bearers to tackle the entrenched corruption in the public sector and ensure transparent election processes. As a result, the Absence of Corruption and Credible Elections factors are worth watching in the future. Rights should also be watched, especially in light of persistent security threats and unequal social development throughout the country. Nigeria faces great instability on many fronts – politically, economically, and socially – and its prospects for positive democratic and human rights growth will depend on a diligent and dedicated leadership that is able to tackle these myriad issues.
Last updated: July 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
September 2024
Government failures blamed for deaths in flooding disaster
In early September, devastating floods in Nigeria’s Maiduguri region claimed hundreds of lives and displaced nearly half a million people, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region. Heavy rainfall overwhelmed the city’s drainage systems, and the collapse of a dam exacerbated the disaster. Engineers and residents criticized government failures, highlighting inadequate dam maintenance, poor urban planning, and lack of flood mitigation measures. Experts noted that climate change has made extreme weather events more frequent, but poor infrastructure and slow emergency response intensified the impact. The disaster has prompted urgent calls for investment in climate resilience and infrastructure improvements.
Sources: Punch (1), Punch (2), The Africa Report, New York Times
August 2024
Dozens killed as police crackdown on cost-of-living protests amid economic crisis
Dozens of people were killed and hundreds injured as security forces violently repressed protests against the soaring cost of living. The demonstrations were sparked by President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies that triggered inflation and surging prices, as inflation rose to a 30-year high of 34 per cent in June. Despite warnings from ruling party members, religious clerics and even opposition leaders, tens of thousands of mostly young protesters took to the streets, even in northern states where socio-economic protests are rare. The violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces led to the authorities imposing 24-hour curfews across several states to quell the protests. Journalists covering the events were also targeted, with several reportedly brutalized by security forces, while reports have also emerged of state-sponsored armed groups attacking protesters.
Sources: Africa Confidential, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, X, The Africa Report, International Federation of Journalists
December 2023
At least 85 civilians killed by Nigerian military drone strike
At least 85 (and perhaps as many as 127) civilians were killed in the village of Tudun Biri, in Kaduna state, on 3 December when an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operated by the Nigerian army mistakenly attacked the village. The Nigerian army was engaged in operations against terrorists in the area, and operators mistook a village gathering to celebrate the Muslim holiday Mawlid for the movements of a terrorist group. This was the worst incident of its kind since 2017. President Bola Tinubu ordered the incident to be investigated, and the Committee on Defence in the House of Representatives has promised to monitor the investigation. Protestors gathered outside the National Assembly on 6 December, demanding accountability.
Sources: The Guardian (1), The Guardian (2), The Guardian (3), Sahara Reporters, Financial Times
March 2023
State elections broadly peaceful, but challenges remain
Following the national elections held in February, Nigerians voted for the members of Houses of Assembly for the 36 states, and for governors of 28 states on 18 March. Following a number of complaints about the conduct of the national elections made by political parties, the state elections had been delayed by one week as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) sought to find solutions. Observers noted that the state elections experienced fewer logistical challenges than the national elections, and the technologies used for voter identification and results tabulation functioned well. Still there were reports of violence and vote buying, particularly in the states of Lagos, Lagos, Rivers, Enugu and Kano. Observers reported that 21 people were killed in election-related violence. Continuing the trend from the national election, turnout was reportedly low and few women were candidates.
Sources: Yiaga Africa, European Union Election Observation Mission, France24, Premium Times, Africa Report
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