Ethiopia
Ethiopia exhibits low range performance in three categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework(Representation, Rights and Rule of Law) but is in the mid-range in Participation. Its performance is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries in several aspects of Rights, Rule of Law, Representation and Participation. Compared to five years prior, there have been significant advances in Elected Government and significant declines in several factors of Rights, Rule of Law and Representation. Despite having one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, Ethiopia is a heavily indebted, low-income country and many of its citizens live below the poverty line.
Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country and, with the exception of its brief occupation by Fascist Italy between 1936 and 1941, it is the only country on the continent to have successfully resisted European colonization. While its territory has varied over its long history, Ethiopia’s current borders were first established in the late 19th century, following a series of conquests that expanded the then Ethiopian Empire. The polity that emerged from this expansionism was ethnically and religiously diverse. Ethiopia’s largest ethnic groups are the Amhara, Oromo, Somali and Tigray peoples and its most widely practiced religions are Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity, Islam and Protestantism. Religious affiliation is almost universal and despite the country being a constitutionally secular state, religion is increasingly part of political discourse.
Ethnic identity remains highly salient. Under the modern imperial period (1855-1974) and the Marxist-Leninist Derg regime (1974-1991), ethnically based sentiments were repressed by rulers in favor of unified multi-ethnic identity, ultimately fueling the very ethnic tensions that contributed to the Derg’s collapse. The 1994 constitution introduced ethnic federalism that was intended to devolve extensive authority to ethnically-based regions in an attempt to manage these divisions. After a thirty year war, Eritrea seceded in 1993. Since then, Ethiopian-Eritrean relations have been marked by an enduring rivalry that sustained a decades-long ‘no war no peace’ stalemate until a 2018 peace agreement, but tensions have re-escalated since late 2022, including in 2025.
Tensions between Ethiopia’s ethnic groups continue to flare over land, power and resources—exacerbated by ethnic federalism’s territorial arrangements, which has sharpened competition and widened disparities. The 2020-2022 Tigray War—fought between the Tigray region’s ruling party, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government and its allies, which included the Eritrean Defence Forces—was the most devastating of these conflicts and triggered wider instability, including the ongoing insurgencies in the Oromia and Amhara regional states that remain ongoing as of 2025.
The government has responded to insurgencies by curbing civic space through states of emergency, internet shutdowns and arrests of journalists, opposition politicians and civil society activists. It is also been accused of extra-judicial killings, enforced disappearances, and torture. Women’s rights have been severely impacted, with conflict-related sexual violence reported to be widespread (particularly in Tigray), while patriarchal norms continue to drive significant gender gaps in Ethiopia across employment, political leadership, and education.
Looking ahead, if they remain unresolved, Ethiopia’s regional insurgencies will likely continue to impact performance across a broad range of democratic indicators, including Civil Liberties, Political Equality, Personal Integrity and Security, and Free Political Parties. The way in which past violations are addressed in the country’s transitional justice process will reflect the country’s commitment to democracy overall.
Last updated: June 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
May 2025
Election Commission revokes TPLF’s legal status, straining fragile peace
On 14 May, Ethiopia’s National Election Board banned the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) for failing to hold a general assembly. The TPLF, which led a coalition that ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until 2019, has remained the dominant political force in Tigray. The party denounced the decision and appealed to the African Union, warning it threatens the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray War. The electoral board’s move was followed on 26 May by the provisional registration of former TPLF official Getachew Reda’s new party, deepening mistrust between the federal government and the TPLF. The delisting raises further fears of a return to war in northern Ethiopia, given internal divisions in Tigray and widespread anger at the federal decision. Implementation of the peace deal has stalled amid unresolved territorial disputes, reported TPLF-Eritrea talks, protests in southern Tigray, and the emergence of new anti-TPLF groups allegedly backed by the federal government.
Sources: International IDEA, Barron’s, Africa Confidential, British Broadcasting Corporation, International Crisis Group,The Reporter - Ethiopia
April 2025
Parliament ratifies controversial amendments to media law
On 17 April, Ethiopia’s parliament passed amendments to Proclamation No. 1238-2021, which had been under review by the Standing Committee on Democracy Affairs since its referral by the House on 29 October 2024. The changes transfer key oversight powers from the Ethiopian Media Authority (EMA) board to the executive, including allowing the Prime Minister to nominate the EMA Director-General—a role previously reserved for the House. The amendment also removes requirements for public input and transparency in board appointments, as well as the ban on political party affiliation for board members, and eliminates mandatory representation from civil society and media groups. Media licensing and disciplinary powers have been consolidated under the EMA. Media professionals and civil society warn the law formalizes political influence over Ethiopia’s media landscape and undermines the regulator’s independence.
Sources: Proclamation No. 1238/2021 (unamended), International IDEA, AllAfrica, The Reporter – Ethiopia, Barron’s,International Press Institute
March 2025
Power struggle in Tigray raises risk of renewed conflict
On 10 March, a political and military rift within Tigray’s interim administration escalated into a power struggle, raising fears of renewed conflict. Tension intensified after interim president Getachew Reda suspended three senior Tigray Defence Force (TDF) commanders, accusing them of plotting a coup. A rival faction, backed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its chair Debretsion Gebremichael, responded by installing its own officials in provincial offices and taking over Mekelle’s mayoral office and regional radio station, sidelining Getachew. The crisis stems from divisions over the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the federal war in Tigray but left key disputes unresolved. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Tigray’s vice-president, warned that war could erupt ‘at any moment’. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confirmed Getachew’s removal, blamed the interim administration for failing to deliver peace or elections, and invited Tigrayan stakeholders to nominate a new leader.
Sources: Addis Standard (1), Addis Standard (2), Africa Confidential, The Guardian, International Crisis Group, British Broadcasting Corporation
October 2024
Mass media proclamation threatens civic freedoms
In October, Ethiopia's government introduced a draft amendment to Media Proclamation No. 1238-2021, currently under review by the Standing Committee on Democracy Affairs. The proposed changes would place the Media Authority under the direct control of the Prime Minister's Office, removing key safeguards such as parliamentary oversight in appointing the Director General of the Authority. It also eliminates transparency requirements for nominating board members and safeguards related to political independence. At the same time, it grants significant powers, including licensing and disciplinary actions, directly to the Authority. Civil society groups have warned that these amendments concentrate power and expose the regulatory body to political influence. The bill will now undergo further discussions and consultations before lawmakers decide whether to ratify it.
Sources: Association for Human Rights in Ethiopia, Proclamation No. 1238/2021, The Reporter, Addis Standard, African Press Agency, Human Rights Watch
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2024
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