Ethiopia
Ethiopia performs in the low range in three categories of the Global State of Democracy framework (Representation, Rights and Rule of Law) and in the middle range in the fourth (Participation). Compared to 2018, it has experienced significant improvements in Credible Elections and Elected Government but significant declines in several indicators, including Effective Parliament, Access to Justice and Predictable Enforcement. Despite having one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, Ethiopia is a heavily indebted, low-income country and many of its citizens live below the poverty line.
Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country and, with exception of its brief occupation by Fascist Italy between 1936 and 1941, it is the only country on the continent to have successfully resisted European colonization. While its territorial extent has varied over its long history, Ethiopia’s current borders were first established in the late 19th century, following a series of conquests that expanded the then Ethiopian Empire. The polity that emerged from this expansionism was ethnically and religiously diverse. Ethiopia’s largest ethnic groups are the Amhara, Oromo, Somali and Tigray peoples and its most widely practiced religions are Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity, Islam and Protestantism. Religious affiliation is almost universal and despite the country being a constitutionally secular state, religion is increasingly part of political discourse.
Ethnic identity is also highly salient. During the modern imperial period (1855-1974) and the Marxist-Leninist Derg regime that followed (1974-1991), ethnically based sentiments were repressed by rulers who sought to impose allegiance to a single, multi-ethnic nation. This had the effect of fomenting ethnic nationalisms and conflicts that eventually brought down the Derg. In 1994, Ethiopia adopted a new constitution establishing a form of ethnic federalism that was intended to accommodate these nationalisms by devolving extensive authority to ethnic-based regions. The country’s new government also allowed Eritrea to secede in 1993, following a thirty year war of independence. Ethiopian-Eritrean relations since, however, have been marked by an enduring rivalry that, until a 2018 peace agreement between the countries, helped maintain a decades-long ‘no war no peace’ situation and that, since late 2022 in particular, has led to a re-escalation of tensions. Relations between ethnic groups within Ethiopia have also remained tense and marked by proliferating conflicts over land, power and resources. This is partly a consequence of Ethiopia’s federalism, which by establishing ethnic-based territorial boundaries has widened disparities and increased competition between ethnic groups. The most deadly of these ethnic conflicts, was the brutal two-year Tigray War (2020-22) fought between the Tigray region’s ruling party, Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the federal government and its allies, which included the Eritrean Defence Forces. It also served to fuel other conflicts, most notably the ongoing insurgencies in the Oromia and Amhara regional states.
The government has responded to these insurgencies by increasingly restricting civic space through states of emergency, internet shutdowns and by arresting journalists and critics, including opposition politicians and civil society activists. It is also alleged to have carried out extra-judicial killings, enforced disappearances and torture. Women’s rights have been severely impacted, with conflict-related sexual violence reported to be widespread (particularly in Tigray). More broadly, patriarchal norms mean that significant gender gaps exist in employment, political leadership and education.
Looking ahead, it will be important to continue to monitor the ongoing regional insurgencies, which are likely to continue to impact Ethiopia’s performance across a broad range of democratic indicators, including Civil Liberties, Political Equality, Personal Integrity and Security and Free Political Parties. The way in which past violations are addressed in the country’s transitional justice process will reflect the country’s commitment to Access to Justice.
Last updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
March 2025
Power struggle in Tigray raises risk of renewed conflict
On 10 March, a political and military rift within Tigray’s interim administration escalated into a power struggle, raising fears of renewed conflict. Tension intensified after interim president Getachew Reda suspended three senior Tigray Defence Force (TDF) commanders, accusing them of plotting a coup. A rival faction, backed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its chair Debretsion Gebremichael, responded by installing its own officials in provincial offices and taking over Mekelle’s mayoral office and regional radio station, sidelining Getachew. The crisis stems from divisions over the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the federal war in Tigray but left key disputes unresolved. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Tigray’s vice-president, warned that war could erupt ‘at any moment’. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confirmed Getachew’s removal, blamed the interim administration for failing to deliver peace or elections, and invited Tigrayan stakeholders to nominate a new leader.
Sources: Addis Standard (1), Addis Standard (2), Africa Confidential, The Guardian, International Crisis Group, British Broadcasting Corporation
October 2024
Mass media proclamation threatens civic freedoms
In October, Ethiopia's government introduced a draft amendment to Media Proclamation No. 1238-2021, currently under review by the Standing Committee on Democracy Affairs. The proposed changes would place the Media Authority under the direct control of the Prime Minister's Office, removing key safeguards such as parliamentary oversight in appointing the Director General of the Authority. It also eliminates transparency requirements for nominating board members and safeguards related to political independence. At the same time, it grants significant powers, including licensing and disciplinary actions, directly to the Authority. Civil society groups have warned that these amendments concentrate power and expose the regulatory body to political influence. The bill will now undergo further discussions and consultations before lawmakers decide whether to ratify it.
Sources: Association for Human Rights in Ethiopia, Proclamation No. 1238/2021, The Reporter, Addis Standard, African Press Agency, Human Rights Watch
July 2024
Restriction of civic space as over 1,500 civil society organisations have their licenses revoked
On 8 July, the Ethiopia’s Authority for Civil Society Organizations (ASCO) announced the closure of at least 1,504 civil society organisations (CSOs), citing non-compliance with annual reporting requirements. CSOs are reportedly struggling to meet ASCO reporting requirements due to underfunding and a lack of administrative capacity. According to the Observatory for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders, an NGO, the closures have created a climate of fear, isolation and stigmatization within Ethiopian civil society. It described the closures as ‘unprecedented’ and noted that it was part of a broader and ongoing crackdown on civic space, human rights organisations and independent media.
Sources: International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), The Reporter, Human Rights Watch
April 2024
Tens of thousands displaced by armed clashes in disputed territory
On 22 April, the UN reported that over 50,000 people had been displaced by armed clashes in northern Ethiopia, including the districts of Raya Alamata, Zata and Ofla. The report described the humanitarian situation of the displaced as ‘dire…with thousands of women and children in need of broad humanitarian support to survive.’ Media outlets were not able to identify the fighters but reported them as being from the rival Tigray and Amhara provinces. Since the end of the Tigray War in 2022, tensions between Tigrayans and Amhara in the area have been heightened by an unresolved territorial dispute over Raya Alamata, which both provinces claim.
Sources: United Nations, Addis Standard, The Africa Report (1), British Broadcasting Corporation, The Africa Report (2)
Prominent opposition politician shot dead in alleged extrajudicial killing
In April, a prominent politician from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) was shot dead and his body found by the side of a road, in what some have alleged was an extrajudicial killing by government security forces. Bate Urgessa, a senior political officer within the OLF, one of Ethiopia’s largest political parties, was an outspoken critic of the Ethiopian government and had been imprisoned on numerous occasions. In February, he had been detained for conspiring to incite unrest after being interviewed by a French journalist. Extra-judicial killings are common in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, where they are reported to have been carried out by government security forces and the separatist rebels, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), in their long running conflict. The OLF, OLA and Urgessa’s family have all suggested military involvement in his death, with the latter alleging that people who looked like government security forces had abducted him from his hotel room the morning before his body was found. Oromia’s regional government denied the charge, but condemned the killing and promised an investigation into it. On 12 April, it was reported that 13 unnamed suspects had been arrested.
Sources: Addis Standard, The Africa Report, British Broadcasting Corporation, Associated Press, Reuters, Human Rights Watch
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
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