Cuba
Cuba, an island state in the Caribbean, exhibits low performance in all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework, especially Representation and Rights. It is ranked in the bottom 25 per cent of the world in the large majority of GSoD measures of democracy, as it does not hold multiparty competitive elections and limits civil liberties. Cuba has a small and centrally planned economy , whose main exports include commodities such as rolled tobacco, raw sugar, and hard liquor. It is largely dependent on tourism and health care services and imports 80 per cent of what it consumes. Historically, Cuba’s low democratic scores were contrasted with medium to high levels in the Human Development Index. However, in the last few years, the country’s life expectancy and welfare have decreased, while emigration is at a level not seen since the 1960s.
Since the triumph of the 1959 Revolution, during which Fidel Castro and his allies toppled the Fulgencio Batista dictatorship, Cuba has been ruled by the Communist Party. Widely supported during most of the Cold War, the one-party regime started to experience discontent in the 1990s when the Soviet Union -whose subsidies constituted 21.2 per cent of Cuba's GNP between 1986 and 1990- collapsed and ended its support to the island. A “special period” of severe economic crisis marked by food rationing, energy cuts, fuel shortages and mass migration followed. Opposition to the regime and independent civic movements began to grow as a result.
The majority of Cuba’s population self identifies as white and of European descent (64.1 per cent), and the country also has a significant mulatto (26.6 per cent) and black population (9.3 per cent). While most of the country’s original indigenous inhabitants (Taino) became virtually extinct after European settlement, research indicates that some fled into the mountains and intermarried. Evidence of the community’s continuing presence is still apparent, especially in the Oriente region of the country. After the Revolution, however, the Communist government instilled a singular mindset of ‘Cubanness,’ rejecting the idea of separate racial identities. More recently, economic crises and reforms have brought about increased inequality along clearly visible racial lines.
Cuba has been an early leader in recognizing gender equality, boasting high rates of women attaining higher education. Women’s rates of representation in parliament are also amongst the world’s best; Cuba also legalized abortion in 1965. High performance on gender equality is also reflected in GSoDI data. Nevertheless, systemic issues – the unequal distribution of economic activities and gender-based violence – continue to be problematic.
In the last decade, the government implemented economic reforms to diversify its strictly regulated economy, encourage private business and unify its dual currencies. Economic stagnation, rising inflation and a sharp drop in tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, sparked significant protests against scarcity and the lack of political rights in 2021. In response, the government violently crushed protests and introduced a new Constitution, which recognizes private property, promotes foreign investment as important for development, and forbids discrimination based on sexual orientation. Amendments did not extend to the political system, which continues to ban political parties and campaigning, and where voters are limited to selecting representatives from the only official party, the Communist Party. Looking ahead, it will be important to watch economic growth and basic welfare as indicators of public satisfaction with the regime.
Monthly Event Reports
May 2023 | Report reveals dire prison conditions amid violent protest crackdown
Protests erupted in eastern Cuba on 6 May against widespread fuel and food supply shortages and deteriorating living conditions. Conflicting narratives portraying the protests as both isolated incidents and significant uprisings emerged on social media, with videos that show dozens of demonstrators marching through the streets. The government’s repressive response has been criticized, with violent police crackdown resulting in injuries and arrests, accompanied by internet shutdowns to suppress freedom of expression and dissent. Economic hardship has sparked increased protests since July 2021, and many have been met with repression. A recent investigation by NGO Prisoners Defenders reveals widespread human rights violations in Cuban prisons, including overcrowded, unsanitary conditions, the use of solitary confinement, and denial of medical care. Political prisoners face physical and psychological torture. The UN emphasizes the urgent need for accountability and action. As of April 2023, 1,048 Cuban dissidents remain in jail.
March 2023 | Record low turnout as Cuba holds parliamentary elections without opposition
Cuba held parliamentary elections on 26 March to select 470 deputies of the National Assembly, with no participation of international observers. The electoral process has been condemned by Cubans, and internationally denounced as ‘undemocratic’. Official participation figures have raised doubts, and human rights groups have highlighted acts of repression with coercion tactics and repression against activists in the context of the election. All opposition was barred from access to power, with only 470 candidates contending for the same number of seats, of which 55.3 per cent will be held by women. In view of the severe political restrictions, opposition groups called on Cubans to abstain from voting, claiming elections in the country’s unchallenged one-party system are fraudulent, with no formal or international oversight. Official government reports claim voter turnout was 75.92 per cent, marking an increase from the 68.5 per cent participation registered in municipal elections last November. This was, however, a poor turnout by Cuban standards and the lowest seen for legislative elections since the 1959 Revolution. The trend of growing abstention over the last decade indicates an erosion of confidence in Cuba’s communist regime with increasing public discontent amid socio-economic hardships.
December 2022 | Cuba’s new criminal code sparks major concerns
A new Penal Code that activists and human rights organizations warn could further limit fundamental rights, entered into force in Cuba. The new criminal code replaces legislation dating back to 1987 and could be used by Cuban authorities to reprimand dissent more easily. It includes a provision that allows anyone who “endangers the constitutional order and normal functioning” of the government to be punished with prison sentences. It also prohibits the receipt and use of funds made to finance activities “against the Cuban state and its constitutional order,” which human rights groups say could be used against independent journalists and NGOs
November 2022 | Cuba holds local elections with lowest turnout in 40 years
On 27 November Cubans went to the polls to elect over 11,500 delegates to municipal assemblies. The elections took place at a critical moment for the country, which is facing a grave economic crisis and increasingly deteriorating living conditions. According to government figures, Cuba saw the highest abstention rate (31.5 per cent) in local elections since at least 1976. The sharp drop in voter turnout, in elections that are not competitive, with only one party on the ballot, followed calls from Cuba’s opposition to refrain from voting in protest of the administration of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
Basic Information
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Global State of Democracy Indices
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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