Guinea
Guinea, also known as Guinea-Conakry, exhibits low-range performance in three categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework (Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law) but is in the mid-range with regard to Participation. It is amongst the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the majority of factors of democratic performance. Over the last five years, it has experienced significant declines across multiple aspects of Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law. These stark declines have followed a 2021 coup that overthrewPresident Alpha Condé and installed a military regime. Economically, Guinea is a low-income country that remains heavily reliant on agriculture and mining bauxite, diamonds, gold, and iron ore.
Present-day Guinea was long inhabited by hunter-gatherer populations before the dawn of the Mali and Fulani empires. The Portuguese arrived in the 15th century and developed a slave trade; the country eventually became a French colony in the 19th century. A 1958 independence referendum made Guinea the first French colony in Africa to gain independence. The early years of independence were marked by the authoritarian rule of Presidents Sekou Touré and Lansana Conté. During this time, Guinea experienced coups, human rights abuses—including the use of concentration camps—and severe poverty. It was also impacted by the effects of civil wars in neighboring countries. While the 1990 constitution allowed multiparty elections to be held in 1993, the first democratic election did not occur until 2010, when Alpha Condé was elected president.
Throughout Guinea’s post-independence history, the polity has been significantly affected by ethnic cleavages. Ethnic and regional voting is widespread, as politicians exploit ethnic divides between the Fulani (approximately 40 per cent of the population) and the Malinké (approximately 30 per cent) to win power; these divisions have also resulted in ethnic violence and turmoil. Indeed, there is also a high degree of political polarization that exists between the government and the opposition. Other issues of identity continue to divide Guineans. The country has one of the highest rates of female genital mutilation at 95 per cent, gender-based violence affects nine in ten women and girls, and women’s political representation for women has remained weak despite the adoption of the Gender Parity Law in 2019. Guinea is also one of the few former French colonies that continues to criminalize same-sex relationships.
For many Guineans, democracy and development remain central political concerns—issues that also triggered the 2021 military coup. Former President Condé had controversially secured a third term in 2020 despite the widespread support for a two-term limit. Since the coup, protesters calling for a return to democracy have been met with excessive police force. Additionally, frustration over poor governance remains high, 88 per cent of young Guineans dissatisfied with the government's job creation efforts.
Looking ahead, the country’s performance in Representation and Rule of Law warrants close attention. The junta has suspended electoral democracy and parliament, and while it initially proposed a three-year transition, it missed the December 2024 deadline. A new constitutional referendum has now been scheduled for the second half of 2025, raising concerns that it could entrench military power rather than pave the way for credible elections. Political represession, the sidelining of opposition parties, and a delayed census cast further doubt on the credibility of the transition process.
Last updated: June 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
June 2025
Draft constitution proposes major institutional changes ahead of referendum
On 26 June, authorities in Guinea presented a draft constitution that will be submitted to a referendum on 21 September. The proposed text extends the presidential term from five to seven years, renewable once, introduces a bicameral legislature with a new Senate, and creates a special court to try high-ranking officials for crimes committed in office. It also elevates eight national languages (including Susa, Fulani, Malinke, and Kissi) to official status alongside French and mandates a minimum 30 per cent quota for women in elected and leadership roles. While the transition charter bars junta members from running in elections, it remains unclear whether transitional president Mamadi Doumbouya will stand. Critics accuse the junta of using the reform process to entrench power, pointing to the removal of provisions in the initial draft that explicitly barred lifetime presidencies and strictly limited constitutional revisions.
Sources: The Office of the President – Guinea, Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Barron’s, Constitution Net
Junta creates new elections authority ahead of referendum
On 14 June, Guinea’s transitional president Mamady Doumbouya issued a decree creating a new elections authority ahead of the 21 September constitutional referendum. The new Direction Générale des Élections (DGE), placed under the authority of the Minister responsible for Territorial Administration, will manage political votes, referendums, and the biometric voter roll, while also helping establish a special election security force. Its director will be appointed by presidential decree. Critics warn the body lacks independence and could facilitate executive control of the process. Former bar association president Mohamed Traoré described the move as consolidating a ‘partisan administration’ that acts as both ‘judge and party.’ Others warned it paves the way for Doumbouya’s possible candidacy despite prior pledges not to run. The decree represents a break from prior efforts since 2010 to separate electoral management from state oversight and has intensified concerns over the credibility of Guinea’s upcoming elections.
Sources: Barron’s, Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Mohamed Traoré (Facebook)
April 2025
Guinea sets September date for constitutional referendum
On 1 April, Guinea’s military junta announced a constitutional referendum for 21 September 2025, framing it as a precursor to elections and a step toward ‘restoring constitutional order.’ The draft constitution is expected to address key issues such as presidential term limits, electoral frameworks, and whether junta members can run for office—a restriction currently imposed by Article 46 of the transition charter. The vote follows a missed December 2024 deadline to end military rule. The National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD), a coalition of parties and associations, called the announcement a ‘manoeuvre to perpetuate dictatorship.’ With two former ruling parties suspended, another under surveillance, rising repression, and a delayed electoral census, observers question the prospects for holding free and fair elections as scheduled.
Update: On 12 May, Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah announced that presidential and legislative elections would be held in December 2025.
Sources: Africa Confidential (1), International IDEA, Guinée News, Radio France Internationale, Jeune Afrique, Africa News, Africa Confidential (2)
March 2025
Guinea pardons ex-president convicted for 2009 stadium massacre
On 28 March, a presidential decree broadcast on national television announced that Guinea’s transitional leader, General Mamadi Doumbouya, had granted a pardon to former president Moussa Dadis Camara on health grounds. Camara’s lawyer confirmed the next day that he had been released from Conakry’s central prison on the evening of 28 March. The pardon came just days after the transitional government pledged to compensate victims of the 2009 Conakry stadium massacre from the national budget, despite a court ruling in July 2024 that Camara and others were personally responsible for reparations. The Guinean Organisation for the Defence of Human and Civil Rights (OGDH) and the Association of Victims, Relatives, and Friends of 28 September 2009 (AVIPA) condemned the decision, questioning the health justification and noting that medical care can be provided in detention. They called it a blow to judicial independence and victims’ pursuit of justice.
Sources: International IDEA, Guinee News, International Federation for Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Punch Nigeria, British Broadcasting Corporation
December 2024
Military junta extends transitional rule
On 31 December, Guinea’s ruling junta announced an extension of the country’s transition period but did not specify a new timeline for returning to civilian rule. The initial agreement with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), reached in 2022, had set a 24-month transition, meaning elections were expected by the end of 2024. However, the military government, led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, cited logistical and institutional challenges in justifying the extension. In his New Year’s address, Doumbouya reaffirmed his commitment to restoring constitutional order, stating that a constitutional referendum would be organized in early 2025, but did not clarify when elections would follow. Opposition groups condemned the move, declaring they would no longer recognize the transitional authorities after the missed deadline. The announcement is expected to heighten political tensions as the opposition pushes for a clear and binding electoral timeline.
Sources: Guinee News, Radio France Internationale, Africa News (1), Africa News (2)
Stampede at football match leaves dozens of fans dead
On 1 December, at least 56 people were killed in a stampede and clashes with security forces during a football match in Nzérékoré, Guinea. The violence erupted after fans stormed the pitch in protest against referee decisions, leading to chaos as security forces intervened. A collective of human rights groups in the Nzérékoré region later estimated the death toll had risen to 135, while adding that 50 people were still missing. One rights group, citing video analysis and witness accounts, reported that police fired tear gas into the stands and onto the field, triggering panic and a deadly rush toward the stadium’s main exit. Prime Minister Bah Oury condemned the incident and promised justice, while human rights groups called for an independent investigation into the role of security forces in the tragedy.
Sources: Guinee News, The New York Times, France 24, British Broadcasting Corporation, Amnesty International
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2024
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Performance by category over the last 6 months
Global State of Democracy Indices
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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