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Pakistan
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Pakistan performs at the mid-range level in two Global State of Democracy categories - Representation and Participation - and in the low range in Rights and the Rule of Law. It falls among the bottom 25 per cent of the world in several factors, including Basic Welfare, Gender Equality, Personal Integrity and Security, and Freedom of Religion, while in the top 25 per cent in Inclusive Suffrage. Over the past five years, Pakistan has experienced a significant decline in Free Political Parties. Pakistan’s lower middle-income economy relies mainly on services (wholesale and retail), agriculture, and industry, and suffers from high levels of government and external debt. Poor education and literacy rates as well as weak governance and corruption are also significant challenges.
Pakistan was borne out of a hastily drawn and violent partition from British India in 1947. The Muslim-majority state struggled with nation-building, and has experienced three spells of military dictatorship over three decades – the most recent of which ended in 2008. Even during democratic rule, which frequently alternated between family dynasties, the military has retained its presence. Further difficulties emanate from political instability, with no prime minister having ever served a full term.
Political leaders have exploited religious and ethnic cleavages, with Pakistan having one of the highest levels of social hostilities involving religion. Blasphemy laws, which predominantly affect Muslims, carry the death penalty and encourage vigilantism. These laws also impact the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community (deemed by the Constitution of Pakistan to be non-Muslims) and non-Muslim minorities. Ethnopolitical cleavages exist between the state and various ethnic groups, and between and within ethnic groups (Muhajirs, Pashtuns, Sindhis, and Baluchs). Nationalist insurgency from separatists in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province adds further complexity, which Pakistani authorities have reportedly responded to with enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. Moreover, the forced return of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees and undocumented migrants has drawn international criticism.
Relations with and perceived threats from India are consistent political issues. War has broken out between Pakistan and India four times, three of which were over the disputed Kashmir region, where tensions persist. Terrorism further complicates the security picture. The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended a ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government in 2022, with physical insecurity and tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan rising as the latter is accused of sheltering the TTP, and democratic progress hindering as a result.
Women and girls in Pakistan face multiple barriers, perpetuated by a highly patriarchal society, regressive social norms and gender stereotypes, impacting their right to health, education, employment and political participation. Particularly striking is the severe gender gap in voting and access to finance – the latter aggravating chronic poverty. Furthermore, despite the passing of the Transgender Rights Bill in 2018, the ruling by the Federal Shariah Court striking down provisions in the bill is seen as a major setback to LGBTQIA+ rights.
Climate change is an underlying political issue in Pakistan. Set to experience rates of warming ‘considerably above the global average’, climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing challenges, as seen in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and floods of 2010, 2011, 2022, and 2024.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Representation and Rights – considering the military’s continuing influence in Pakistani politics and increasing repression of protests, including through Internet shutdowns. Amid a deepening governance crisis, it is necessary to monitor the Rule of Law in Pakistan, as its increasingly assertive Supreme Court predominantly acts as a mediator of political conflict. Lastly, as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, it is necessary to watch how Pakistan responds to citizens’ concerns and mitigates its impacts – including its potential to inhibit improvements in Basic Welfare.
Last Updated: June 2024
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May 2024
Punjab government passes controversial defamation bill
On 20 May, the Punjab Provincial Assembly passed the Punjab Defamation Act of 2024, establishing special tribunals to handle fake news allegations with fines of up to 3 million Pakistani Rupees (approximately USD 10,750) without needing proof of damage or loss. The law permits tribunals to suspend or block the social media account or website on which the alleged defamatory content was posted – a move coinciding with Pakistan’s intermittent blocking of X (formerly Twitter) since February. Press freedom advocates and rights bodies have criticized the bill for its severe penalties and the potential for misuse against government critics, calling for its withdrawal and citing threats to press freedom. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has raised concern that the bill was passed in a rushed manner with no meaningful consultation with civil society and media stakeholders. The Act has been challenged in the Lahore High Court, with petitions filed mere hours after it was signed into law.
Sources: Dawn, International Federation of Journalists, The Diplomat
January 2024
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) experiences setbacks ahead of the general election
On 30 January, former Prime Minister Imran Khan received a 10-year jail sentence for revealing state secrets. The following day, an anti-graft court imposed a 14-year sentence on Khan for illegally selling state gifts. In another setback, the Supreme Court upheld the Election Commission’s decision to strip PTI of its signature cricket bat symbol, citing irregularities in recent intra-party elections. This move was criticized for denying voters the chance to identify the party in upcoming elections, particularly in a country with low literacy rates, and forcing PTI candidates to run as independents. PTI alleges that the government (possibly acting through the army) launched a crackdown on its members after the 9 May riots, resulting in the imprisonment and forced resignations of many of its members. Furthermore, the Supreme Court in January scrapped a lifetime ban on politicians with convictions from holding office, with disqualifications now limited to five-year terms. The ruling makes it possible for Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party to run for office, while Khan remains prohibited due to his five-year ban from a prior conviction. Human rights bodies have expressed concerns that recent developments undermine the fair competition and credibility of the upcoming election.
Sources: Reuters, The Express Tribune, United Nations, Council of Foreign Affairs, International IDEA
February 2024
General election delivers hung parliament
Pakistan held its general election on 8 February to elect representatives for the National Assembly and the prime minister. Preliminary election results show that independent candidates won 101 of the 336 National Assembly seats, the majority of which are affiliated with jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, came in second with 75 seats, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) secured 54 seats. With no single party securing an outright majority, the formation of a government remained uncertain, leaving the decision on the next prime minister in limbo. On 13 February, it was announced Sharif’s PML-N would form a coalition with PPP and other junior parties, allowing them to gain a simple majority - with Shehbaz Sharif nominated to resume the premiership. Voter turnout was 47.8 per cent, down from 51.9 per cent in 2018. Despite a record number of women registered to vote, the turnout for women voters remained low. A record 12 women secured seats in the National Assembly, up from 8 elected in the previous election. The election was marred by controversy and violence, including allegations of electoral fraud, poll rigging, internet disruptions, and mobile service suspensions due to two separate bomb blasts near election candidates’ offices on the eve of the election. The significant delay in announcing election results also fuelled suspicions of political engineering.
Sources: Election Commission of Pakistan, Al Jazeera, Dawn, FAFEN, Pakistan Today
December 2023
Crackdown on Baloch protesters
On 20 December, law enforcement resorted to using excessive force, including tear gas, batons, and water cannons, against peaceful demonstrators participating in the women-led "Baloch Long March." Protesters were demonstrating against the persistent repression and human rights violations in the province of Balochistan, specifically in relation to extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. Home to a two-decade long Baloch nationalist insurgency (a low-intensity conflict) and about 5 per cent of Pakistan’s population, the region accounts for 2,752 of the 10,078 enforced disappearances an independent commission has recorded nationwide since 2011. On 21 December 2023, authorities arrested more than 300 activists in Islamabad. The crackdown was widely criticized by human rights organizations, eventually leading to the detainees’ release. However, a significant number of activists remain in police custody with cases filed against them, according to Amnesty International and various rights groups.
Sources: Dawn, VOA News, The Express Tribune, Amnesty International
Supreme Court rules military courts can conditionally resume
On 13 December, the Supreme Court (SC) ruled that military trials for civilians can resume. This follows a prior ruling in October 2023, which had declared the civilian military trials null and void. The new order upheld a set of intra-court appeals (ICAs) filed by various government ministries, requesting a larger bench of judges to review the prior ruling. The defence ministry's counsel argued that that the previous ruling lacked clarity on which parts of the Constitution and Army Act were deemed unconstitutional, emphasizing the possibility of civilian military court trials for crimes pertaining to the military. At least 103 civilians are currently facing military trials under the Army Act, following the 9 May riots over former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s arrest. However, the Court clarified that military courts could not issue a final verdict without SC approval. Rights experts have previously condemned the use of such courts to try and persecute civilians, with the Lahore High Court Bar Association strongly condemning the SC’s latest decision.
Sources: The Express Tribune, International IDEA, Andalou Agency
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