President Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since 1992 and overseen an increasingly personalized and autocratic government. In 2022, one of its intermittent disputes with Kyrgyzstan over border demarcation and access to resources escalated into militarized conflict, with over 100 dead and thousands displaced.

The land that constitutes Tajikistan fell under direct and indirect Russian influence in the 19th century and its modern borders were established in 1929.  Tajikistan exited the USSR in the worst socioeconomic situation of any former republic, and immediately entered into a civil war between Russia and Uzbekistan-backed communist and pro-government forces on one side and democratic and Islamist forces on the other. A peace agreement was signed in 1997 after 60,000 to 100,000 were killed, 600,000 internally displaced and 80,000 fled.  By the late 1990s, Tajikistan was widely considered a failed state and most actual power was held by various regional warlords. The UN-brokered peace treaty guaranteed the Islamist opposition 30 per cent of government posts, but Rahmon steadily undermined democratic institutions, coopted or minimized competing power centers, and reneged on the treaty’s obligations before finally suppressing and banning the main opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan in 2015.

The country is over 80 per cent Tajik, 16 per cent Uzbek and is home to several smaller minorities. United Nations experts have criticized the government for discrimination against the Jughi (Roma) and Pamiri minorities. The latter comprises less than two per cent of the country’s population, but comprise the majority in the country’s large and remote Gorno-Badakhstan Autonomous Region (GBAO), which was a stronghold of the civil war opposition and has never been integrated with the rest of the country, remaining de facto outside central government control. In November 2021, the central government launched an ongoing violent crackdown on the majority-Pamiri region that has resulted in hundreds of secret arrests and trials and dozens of civilian deaths. The crackdown has been internationally condemned, and details are scarce due to government efforts to close off the already isolated region from the outside world.

Gender equality remains a serious concern: 69 per cent of working age women are not employed and gender-based violence is prevalent, often going unreported.

Looking ahead, it will be important to watch whether President Rahmon steps aside for his son, Rustam Emomali, before the scheduled 2027 presidential election. The ongoing militarized attempt to take more direct control over the GBAO and the likelihood of more violence on the Kyrgyz border could further erode Tajikistan’s Rights indicators. Finally, the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan could impact domestic counter-extremism measures domestically, as well as efforts to exploit Western fears of Islamic terrorism to further strengthen the Tajik military and security services.

Last Updated: June 2024