Iraq
Iraq exhibits low-range performance in two categories of the Global State of Democracy framework: Rights and Rule of Law, and it performs in the mid-range in Representation and Participation. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries for most factors in the framework. Over the last five years, Iraq has experienced advances in Personal Integrity and Security and has declined in Effective Parliament. The Iraqi economy is highly reliant on oil revenues, accounting for 42 per cent of its GDP and 85 per cent of the government’s budget. Socio-economic development has been hampered by a precarious and unreliable state budget that is vulnerable to volatility in global oil prices.
Competitive elections have taken place since 2005, following the 2003 US-led invasion that resulted in the fall of Saddam Hussein’s authoritarian regime. Despite the promulgation of a new constitution and governance mechanisms after the invasion, a polarized and unstable political system and fragile democratic institutions remain.
Iraq is a multi-ethnic country, characterized by politicized sectarian divisions, and its vast natural resources have fueled several local and international conflicts. Its population is largely Arab, although it is also home to numerous ethnic and religious minorities that have historically suffered from discrimination, persecution and displacement. Iraq’s muhasasa taifia consociational political system has led to ethnic-based patronage, enabling the division of public resources among ruling elites and their networks. Since 2005, Iraq has been governed by successive Shia-led administrations that have consistently isolated the Sunni community. The salience of ethnicity in politics has been entrenched by the power-sharing arrangement, designed to accommodate various groups and political identities in allocating key governance positions to the main ethno-sectarian groups. This has allowed little space for the emergence of alternative forms of democratic governance and political identification outside this framework.
Iraq is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent with regard to performance on Gender Equality. While the number of women parliamentarians has never been higher, women and adolescent girls are at serious risk of gender-based violence. Women’s increased political activism has also provoked patriarchal violence as well as more liberation for women. LGBTQIA+ rights continue to be threatened, including through increasingly repressive bills.
The fragility of the economy is aggravated by rampant politically sanctioned corruption that prevents public sector reform or service delivery, contributing to widespread poverty and economic stagnation. The lack of economic and social progress since the US-led invasion has generated widespread discontent and distrust in the ruling elites and the state. The ethno-sectarian dynamics of the state coupled with weak institutional capacity have contributed to the fragmentation of Iraq’s security sector, breeding complex interactions with hybrid non-state security actors; high levels of violence continue to undermine citizens’ safety. Iraq has been gripped by popular protests demanding reform, most notably the 2019 October Revolution, many of which have been met with state violence.
Given the context, Iraq’s democratic achievements have been limited to holding elections. Looking ahead, governance problems and poverty threaten the sustainability of the state. Popular discontent remains high, and the government’s violent response to citizen dissatisfaction highlights the fragility of its democratic transition. Civil liberties are violated daily and the general human rights situation remains a matter of concern to the international community.
Monthly Event Reports
December 2023 | Iraq holds first local elections in a decade
On 18 December, Iraq conducted its first set of provincial elections since 2013. The Independent High Electoral Commission announced the preliminary results, with a turnout of 41 per cent despite a boycott by influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The ruling Shia Coordination Framework emerged as a major victor, securing 101 out of the 285 available seats. In terms of regional participation, Kirkuk had the highest participation at 66 per cent, where Kurdish candidates won the majority seats. In Baghdad, the coalition led by former Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi secured the most votes, followed by a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties. Despite minor incidents including the detonation of a stun grenade at a polling station in Najaf and a helicopter crash near Kirkuk (causing one fatality and one injury), the elections were largely peaceful. Women constituted 28 per cent of the candidates and secured 75 seats in the provincial council elections.
November 2023 | Iraqi Court suspends parliament speaker amid controversy
On 14 November, the Supreme Court suspended parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, following accusations of forgery. The ruling also removed lawmaker Laith Al Dulaimi, a member of al-Halbousi's Taqqadum party, who had accused al-Halbousi of forging his signature on a resignation letter. Al Halbousi, a prominent Sunni political leader, expressed surprise at the decision and suggested it undermined national stability and violated the constitution. Taqadum Party called the ruling a ‘flagrant violation’ of the constitution and the ministers of culture, planning, and industry resigned in protest. Moreover, Taqadum legislators have initiated a parliamentary boycott in response to the legal action against al-Halbousi. It is anticipated that Sunni parties will appoint a new speaker prior to the provincial elections in December. The Court maintains that its decision, grounded in the Iraqi constitution, is final and unappealable. The court's decision is likely to impact Iraq's political landscape ahead of next month's provincial elections. As one of Iraq’s most influential Sunni politicians, al-Halbousi’s removal could stir sectarian tensions in the country.
August 2023 | Repressive anti-LGBTQIA+ legislation introduced
On 15 August, the government proposed a law criminalizing homosexuality, penalizing transgender women and anyone perceived as ‘imitating women’ in public. The legislation, which labels same-sex relationships as ‘sexual perversion’, threatens up to seven years in prison and fines of 15 million dinars (11,500 USD) for promoting homosexuality, although it fails to define what this entails. On 9 August, Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission (CMC) directed all media outlets to replace the term ‘homosexuality’ with ‘sexual deviance’ in their published and broadcast language. In addition, the use of the term ‘gender’ was banned as the CMC claimed this language is incompatible with Iraqi society. This move, condemned by international NGOs, has intensified the marginalization of the LGBTQIA+ community, promoting hostility and discrimination. Against this backdrop, anti-LGBTQIA+ rhetoric from Iraqi officials and clampdowns on human rights groups has intensified in recent months. Reports of violent attacks on LGBTQIA+ individuals, often unpunished, are increasing, pointing to a lack of legal protection.
March 2023 | Parliament approves electoral law amendments sparking controversies
On 27 March, the Parliament of Iraq passed amendments to the electoral law proposed last month, with 275 of 329 legislators voting in favour. The amendments will restore the electoral law of 2018, which provided for one electoral district for each of Iraq’s 18 provinces – a significant reduction from the current 83 electoral districts. The vote was met with outrage from Iraqi opposition and independent lawmakers, who warned that this could spark a new wave of unrest. The current electoral system was adopted in response to the Tishreen mass protests of 2019 and considered one of the major gains from the movement, favouring the emergence of independent candidates and smaller political forces. Iraq’s first provincial council elections in a decade are expected to take place on 6 November, and the new electoral law will be applied during the vote. This has raised concerns as Iraq’s established and ruling parties, widely criticized for rampant corruption, will likely further entrench their hold on power.
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