Kosovo
Kosovo performs in the mid-range across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. It falls among the top 25 per cent of countries in the world in Local Democracy. Over the past five years, Kosovo has experienced advances in Credible Elections, Freedom of Association and Assembly and Personal Integrity and Security. It is an upper-middle-income country. Though international aid is still significant, reduced dependency on foreign aid inflows have resulted from growth in consumption and domestic investment in infrastructure as well as diaspora inflows.
Kosovo declared independence in February 2008, following the Kosovo conflict between ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs between 1998 and 1999. This conflict was marked by NATO’s armed intervention, aimed at halting Serbian forces’ atrocities and ethnic cleansing of the Kosovo Albanians. Although the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Kosovo’s independence is not in violation of international law and a majority of UN member states recognize Kosovo, many do not.
As a post-conflict society, the ethnic division between Kosovo Albanians (92.9 per cent) and Kosovo Serbs (around 5 per cent), represents one of the most important political fault lines in Kosovo. Serbia’s refusal to recognize Kosovo’s independence, the Belgrade-backed parallel/illegal structures in Serb municipalities, and unresolved issues such as war crimes, missing persons and technical matters (i.e. recognition of license plates), are the main factors fueling this division. For many years, supporters of a peaceful approach and supporters of an armed insurgency with relation to the conflict with Serbia were bitterly divided. In 2021, however, the political parties that represented these opposing views were both relegated to “old guard” status, as the Vetëvendosje party of Albin Kurti (currently serving as Prime Minister) and Vjosa Osmani (currently serving as President) swept to power.
Apart from Serbs, other smaller minorities include Roma, Ashkali, Egyptians, Bosniaks, Turks, and Gorani. 20 out of 120 parliamentary seats are guaranteed for minorities (10 specifically allotted for ethnic Serbs). Still, minority groups’ exclusion continues to be a problem. Of specific concern are the high unemployment rate and low school enrolment among the Roma. Women hold 41 out of 120 parliamentary seats, exceeding the 30 per cent quota. Despite significant progress, women encounter discrimination in politics, labour, and property inheritance, and are prone to domestic violence. Stronger legislation has recently been introduced, but full enforcement remains a challenge.
Rule of Law is one of the main drivers of politics in the country, with the ruling party having secured over 50 per cent of the vote on a platform that promised to address corruption, nepotism, and state capture. Additionally, the EU-facilitated dialogue with Serbia, and the establishment of the rule of law in Serb-dominated municipalities is a major issue, often impacting Personal Integrity and Security, and causing disagreements between the government, the opposition and the international community.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch the dialogue with Serbia, which will impact Kosovo’s international recognition and support, membership in international organisations, EU integration, and the overall stability of the Western Balkans. This dialogue is also crucial in addressing the genuine integration of the Kosovo Serbs and the dispute around North Mitrovica, an instrumentalized and divided city on the border with Serbia, which has been a source of continuous ethnic tension, and a threat to security and territorial integrity. In view of the added burden of the economic and political effects of the pandemic and Russia's aggression on Ukraine, it will be critical to monitor Absence of Corruption, Personal Integrity and Security, Access to Justice, Judicial Independence, and Basic Welfare in the years ahead.
Monthly Event Reports
September 2023 | Police officer killed as Serb gunmen storm Kosovo
Serb gunmen dressed in military uniforms stormed Banjska, a Serb-dominated village, and barricaded in its monastery after having battled the Kosovo Police and killed one of its officers. Authorities reported that a minimum of five out of at least 30 attackers were killed. The European Commission labelled this a terrorist attack. No civilians were injured. The police discovered a significant cache of heavy weaponry, ammunition, and equipment. ID documents of Serbs were found, including the gun permit of Milan Radoičić, Vice President of Lista Srpska, a Kosovo Serb party supported by Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić. Radoičić confirmed his participation in the attack. Kosovo's leaders attributed the attack to Serbia, while Serbia’s President denied any involvement, asserting it emanated from local Kosovo Serbs who no longer wished to endure what he referred to as "Kurti's terror." After the attack, the US reported a significant Serbian military presence along the Kosovo border, and the Serbian President announced orders for their withdrawal. This unprecedented attack follows months of increased tensions between Kosovo and Serbia.
July 2023 | Ex-intelligence chief sentenced over deportations
The former head of the Kosovo Intelligence Agency (KIA), Driton Gashi, has been sentenced by the Pristina Basic Court to almost five years in prison after being found guilty of abuse of office. In 2018 he was involved in illegally deporting six Turkish nationals living in Kosovo to Türkiye, after the Turkish government accused them of being followers of Fethullah Gülen, who the Turkish authorities accuse of sponsoring terrorism. This is part of a larger transnational repression campaign by the Turkish authorities, which, as reported by Freedom House, took place in at least 31 other countries. The six deportees are serving hefty prison sentences in Türkiye with minimal or no contact with their families. A 2019 Kosovo parliamentary commission found that 31 laws and procedures were breached and that former president Hashim Thaçi, now on trial in the Hague for unrelated crimes, ordered the incident. The then Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, claimed he had no knowledge of the operation. Human Rights Watch has condemned the deportations as a “serious disregard of human rights and the rule of law”. Nonetheless, Gashi has announced that he will appeal the charges.
June 2023 | Government declares two Serb groups terrorist organisations
In an unprecedented move, the government declared two Serb groups that operate in Serb-dominated northern municipalities terrorist organisations. While the North Brigade is lesser known, the Civil Protection was one of the parallel structures not recognized by the Kosovo institutions, serving as a de-facto security force in the north. These illegal structures have challenged Kosovo authorities’ efforts to establish a unified system of governance and extend the rule of law in all its territory. Prime Minister Albin Kurti claims that the groups “pose a serious and direct threat for the constitutional order and security of Kosovo,” and that their members were trained at military bases in Serbia. The Interior Minister, Xhelal Sveçla, said the groups are responsible for a series of ongoing violent attacks, including those against NATO peacekeepers, the EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX), journalists, and the Municipal Election Commission this year. The Minister for Communities and Returns, Kosovo Serb Nenad Rašić, said that the move could negatively affect relations with the Serbian minority in the north.
May 2023 | Tensions escalate in Serb-dominated northern part of the country
Local elections were held in the north of Kosovo after Serb mayors of Belgrade-backed Srpska Lista party resigned in November 2022. The election saw 3.5 per cent turnout and the victory of Kosovo Albanian candidates and one Bosnian. Violent clashes ensued when Serbs tried to prevent the newly elected officials from entering their offices and police used tear gas to disperse the masses. Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vučić placed the army on combat alert, ordering them to move closer to Kosovo’s border. Serb protesters, including groups of masked men, attacked journalists as well as NATO peacekeepers, leaving 30 of them injured. Vehicles of journalists, NATO and the police were vandalized and sprayed with the “Z” symbol used by Russian forces invading Ukraine. NATO sent an additional 700 troops to Kosovo to address the violence. The Kosovo government insists it is trying to enforce the rule of law, while the EU and the US condemned Kosovo’s “forced access to municipal buildings” and called on authorities to ”de-escalate,” with the latter imposing penalties on the country despite recognizing the elections.
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