Egypt
Egypt performs at the low level across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of the world’s countries with regard to the majority of factors of democratic performance. Over the last five years, Egypt has maintained relative stability, suffering notable declines only in Elected Government. Egypt’s economy depends on tourism, construction, some manufacturing, agriculture, and foreign aid, and these sectors, especially tourism, have struggled with the economic effects of instability post-2011 and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Since the fall of the British-aligned monarchy in 1952, and apart from a brief period from 2012 to 2013, Egypt has been ruled by its military. The Tahrir Square protests of 2011 brought about the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, followed by a short-lived democratic experiment. This ended in 2013, when Abdelfattah Al-Sisi took power via a military coup. There is no real opposition, and political parties are weakened and co-opted by state security. A new constitution promulgated in 2019 allows President Al-Sisi to continue to seek re-election until 2034. Continued detention of activists and journalists has paralyzed civic life, while economic instability has led to widespread poverty, with huge gaps in the social safety net.
Egypt’s population is 90 per cent Sunni Muslim and 10 per cent Christian (mainly Coptic). Conflict over the role of religion in the country dates back at least to the Arab Enlightenment of the late 19th century. Since the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had been the largest, most cohesive opposition group, two trends have overtaken Egyptian politics. The first is the eruption of extremist violence both in the Sinai Peninsula and in religiously motivated attacks across the country, especially targeting Christians. The second is a top-down war on any form of civic organization outside the auspices of the government, whether that is by nonprofits, media, or labor. Egyptian society, for its part, has fought back, but only as small groups, struggling in isolation from one another. As more nonprofit organizations and activists are forced to leave the country or face arrest, they look to continue their work abroad. As the government (and especially the military) undertakes more and more ambitious construction projects, it is resisted by tenants of unregistered buildings. Remaining independent media outlets attempt to defend their journalists from arbitrary arrest. Nascent organizing by LGBTQIA+ advocates is brutally crushed and subjected to targeted harassment by regime-affiliated media.
Egypt is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent with regard to performance on Gender Equality. Nevertheless, the country has seen important progress in the last two decades, including the dramatic rise in women’s political participation between 2011 – before the Arab Spring – and 2022, attributable to constitutional amendments introducing a 25 per cent gender quota in parliament. Yet, gender equality continues to be challenged by disparities, notably in the labour market and in wages, while gender-based violence is prevalent.
Looking ahead, recent instability in world food markets has drawn attention to the precarity of Egypt’s food security, endangering the regime’s tacit contract of curtailed freedoms for economic stability. The Social Rights and Equality factor will track how well the regime holds to its end of the bargain, and could show either a reduction in the pressure on the regime or an early warning that popular frustration will boil over.
Monthly Event Reports
December 2023 | President el-Sissi secures a third term in office amid landslide victory
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected for a third term in office, winning 89.6 per cent of the vote in presidential elections held between 10 and 12 December. According to Egypt's National Election Authority, the electoral process was marked by a record turnout of 66.8 per cent. There were no female candidates. International observers noted the smooth execution of the voting process and praised Egypt's efforts in conducting the election. El-Sisi’s win solidifies his position as the country's leader for another six years, starting from April 2024, after already being in power for a decade. As per the Egyptian Constitution, it is anticipated that this will be his last term. However, the landslide victory raises questions about the state of democracy in the country, particularly considering the absence of robust opposition as el-Sisi's authority remains unchallenged and the space for democratic discourse appears to be shrinking.
October 2023 | Controversy Surrounds el-Sisi's Bid for Third Presidential Term
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi announced on 2 October 2 his intention to run for a third term in the upcoming presidential elections in December. However, his candidacy has not been met without controversy. Ahmed Tantawi, a prominent opposition figure and presidential candidate, announced on 13 October 13 his withdrawal from the race due to alleged harassment and intimidation by authorities. Tantawi stated he failed to secure the 25,000 individual endorsements required to participate in the election, citing a series of obstacles imposed by the authorities, including intimidation tactics, arrests, and even phone hacking. Following Tantawi's exit, only four candidates remain in the presidential race, including President el-Sisi. These incidents have sparked concerns over the transparency and fairness of Egypt's electoral process. Critics suggest that the current regime may be leveraging its power to stifle opposition and restrict competition, casting doubts on Egypt's adherence to democratic norms.
September 2023 | Rights groups report dozens of arrests in lead up to December election
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is the leading candidate in the election, running for what would be his third term. Within days of the announcement of the upcoming election, rights groups in Egypt began to report that dozens of opposition party supporters had been arrested in different parts of the country, often on charges of spreading false news, or joining a terrorist group. Such arrests are not uncommon in Egypt (where some sources estimate there are as many as 60,000 political prisoners), but they appear to be increasing in number in the lead up to the election. The timing of these arrests makes them even more important as they are likely to severely impair the fairness of the electoral process.
May 2023 | National dialogue initiated amidst opposition crackdown
On 3 May, the Egyptian government launched a national dialogue that had been announced by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in April 2022, aimed at addressing the country's economic and political challenges. The dialogue is seen as a key opportunity for policy reforms and political changes that reflect the aspirations of the Egyptian people, and should provide a platform to address and reconcile conflicting perspectives, promote inclusivity, and foster a sense of national unity. However, the process has been overshadowed by a crackdown on dissent, with numerous arrests of opposition politicians and activists. This has raised concerns about freedom of expression and the inclusivity of the dialogue. The arrests have undermined the potential for genuine consensus and reconciliation, drawing international condemnation. Critics argue that the dialogue lacks meaningful participation from opposition groups and is one-sided in favour of the government. The lack of inclusivity and the government's credibility issues have cast doubts on the dialogue's effectiveness in bringing about meaningful change in Egypt.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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