Bolivia
Bolivia exhibits mid-range performance in all categories of democracy. It performs among the top 25 per cent of countries globally in Electoral Participation. Over the past five years, it experienced significant decline in Personal Integrity and Security and Civil Society. Bolivia remains one of the poorest countries in the Americas. Its economy depends on the export of gas and minerals, which has left it vulnerable to international shocks and drops in commodity prices.
Bolivia gained its independence from Spain in 1825, after which it experienced economic crisis and political instability, marked by military ‘coups’ and ‘countercoups’ and the influence of caudillos (local strongmen). The early 20th century brought a commodity boom fueled by tin production, but poverty and inequality remained, leading to the 1952 Revolution, which brought about universal suffrage, a major agrarian reform, nationalization of key industries, and prospects for economic growth and social justice. In 1964, another coup ended the revolutionary government, and instability followed (1964-1982), marked by an alternation between civil and military governments. Despite transitioning to democracy in 1982, historic problems of poverty, social inequality and the marginalization of Indigenous and Afro-Bolivian populations remained unresolved.
Estimates indicate that the majority of the population (68 per cent) self-identifies as Mestizo (mixed White and Amerindian), 20 per cent as Indigenous, and also includes Chola, Black and White minorities. The Indigenous population, the majority of whom are Quechua and Aymara, has faced structural discrimination. When Evo Morales took office as the first Indigenous president of Bolivia in 2006, he facilitated structural reforms that aimed at achieving racial equality, including a new constitution in 2009 that created a ‘plurinational state’, recognizing the country’s diversity and its 36 different Indigenous peoples. Still, some of Bolivia’s Indigenous peoples continue to be marginalized and particularly impacted by the exploitation of natural and mineral resources in the regions in which they live.
Under Morales, state control of the economy deepened (including the nationalization of energy and communications companies) and executive power was concentrated, undermining checks on presidential power. After serious irregularities during the 2019 elections, Morales resigned and left the country. A period of crisis followed, marked by protests for and against the government, leaving dozens killed and hundreds wounded. Despite a credible 2020 election, criminal proceedings against opposition members and restrictions on the media continue. Currently, division within the Movimiento al Socialismo Party (MAS) and confrontation between branches of government have dominated Bolivian politics. A Constitutional Court ruling that disqualified the former president from running in the 2025 elections sparked tensions within MAS, as well as with the legislature, which has approved a bill suspending members of the judiciary whose mandates were prolonged due to a delay in the holding of judicial elections. An apparent coup attempt in June 2024 has further compounded political instability.
Bolivia has made important progress in women’s participation, with the 2009 Constitution establishing equality between women and men, laws on violence against women and one of the highest rates of female representation in parliament globally. However, systemic issues, such as the unequal distribution of resources and economic participation, along with gender-based violence continue to exist.
The climate of polarization should be followed in the coming years. Polarization within MAS and with the fragmented opposition has increasingly featured in society, as has the open confrontation between the judiciary and legislature over the mandate of judges and judicial elections. As such, Representation, and Rule of Law, particularly Judicial Independence, should be closely monitored.
Last Updated: August 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
December 2024
After year of delay, judicial elections partially take place
On 15 December, judicial elections were held for members of the Constitutional Court, Supreme Court, Agro-Environmental Tribunal, and the Council of Magistrates. However, only 19 out of the 26 judgeships were on the ballots. The election of the remaining offices was postponed, after the Fourth Chamber of the Constitutional Court granted injunctions in the selection process of candidates for certain judicial offices in response to legal actions initiated by individuals who wished to stand as candidates. The magistrates of the Fourth Chamber were widely criticized, given that the injunctions resulted in the indefinite extension of their mandates, as their own offices were among those affected by the injunctions. Opposition politicians have also called this an attempt to retain power to favour the ruling party and persecute opponents. Participation was close to 70 per cent (voting is mandatory), with a high percentage of spoiled and blank ballots at 37 per cent. Out of a total of 19 elected judges, nine are women.
Sources: Órgano Electoral Plurinacional, Infobae, El Pais
November 2024
Tribunal gives control of MAS to ‘Arcista’ wing
On 14 November, a Chamber of the Constitutional Tribunal recognized Grover Garcia, an ally of President Luis Arce, as head of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. Division within MAS, stemming from a power struggle between former President Evo Morales and Arce, led the party to hold competing assemblies, one in which Morales was chosen as the party’s leader and a second in which ‘Arcistas’ gained leadership positions. The Chamber confirmed the validity of the assembly held by Arce loyalists, taking control of the party from its founder, Morales, despite previous rulings of the Electoral Tribunal that determined both factions had violated the party’s statutes. In a separate ruling it confirmed Morales’s ineligibility to run for president, vice-president or preside the legislature's chambers because he has exceeded the constitutional limit of 10 years as president. Demonstrations in support of Morales continued, with some reports of violence and with Morales temporarily going on hunger strike. Whether Morales continues to call for mobilizations and to seek elected office, remains to be seen.
Sources: Educación Radiofónica de Bolivia, La Razón, El Pais
October 2024
Evo Morales accuses government of assassination attempt
Former President Evo Morales has accused the government of attempting to assassinate him after his vehicle was attacked with gunfire in Cochabamba. Luis Arce’s government refuted this, contending that Morales’s vehicle evaded a checkpoint established in a police operation and ran over a police officer. Officials asserted that police at the checkpoint were shot first by someone in Morales’s vehicle. The mutual accusations take place in the context of heightened political and social conflict due to division within the MAS party. Both Morales and Arce have been accused of sexual misconduct and crimes; both deny the allegations and claim they are politically motivated. A prosecutor issued an arrest warrant against Morales after he did not comply with an order to give a statement in an investigation he faces for statutory rape and trafficking in persons. Morales’s supporters have carried out roadblocks and organized protests against his prosecution. Clashes between protesters and police have left dozens injured.
Sources: Infobae, Reuters, France 24, BBC, El Pais, The Guardian
August 2024
Date for judicial elections is set after year of delay
On 13 August, electoral authorities published the date for judicial elections. On 1 December, after a year of delay, voters will be choosing members of the Constitutional Court, Supreme Court, Agro-Environmental Tribunal, and members of the Council of Magistrates. This was facilitated on account of agreements between parliamentary groups, including opposition lawmakers who previously had objected to the election of judges by popular vote, but now are encouraging participation to end what they view as the arbitrary extension of terms of members of the judiciary. Lawmakers had been unable to decide on procedural issues related to the voting process and a list of candidates for all the judgeships that will be elected (26 in total), which required a two-thirds majority approval. The agreement also follows differences between the legislature and the judiciary over the legality of the extension of the terms of high court judges, and over the validity of the decisions taken by such judges after their original tenures expired.
Sources: Órgano Electoral Plurinacional, Hoy Bolivia, El Deber, El Pais, International IDEA
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