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Palestine
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Palestine exhibits low-range performance in two categories (Representation and Rule of Law) of the Global State of Democracy framework and mid-range performance in Rights and Participation. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries in a majority of factors of the framework. Over the last five years, Palestine has suffered notable declines in multiple factors of Rights and Rule of Law.
Palestine is comprised of two geographically separated areas of land, the West Bank and Gaza Strip; the GSoD Indices data cover only the former. It has never existed as a fully realized nation-state, as foreign powers have for centuries been the dominant sovereign authority. In 1948, though Arab states rejected it, UN General Assembly Resolution 181 created the Israeli state on 77 per cent of Palestinian land. Palestinians faced mass expulsion and ethnic cleansing (Nakba). Several subsequent Arab-Israeli wars resulted in millions of Palestinian refugees, and a majority (60 per cent) of Palestinian areas remain under full Israeli control and are particularly subject to constant military presence, arrest and detention, frequent acts of violence, restrictions on movement, and the destruction of property.
The ongoing occupation affects every aspect of Palestinian life, and both Israeli and Palestinian leaders face condemnation for severe human rights violations. A long-halted peace process with Israel, internal discord between Palestinian factions and the current war between Hamas and Israel have undermined the development of democratic institutions and have prevented Palestine’s ability to exercise self-determination. The country hosts a highly aid-dependent, captive economy with high poverty and unemployment rates.
The quest for independent statehood and resolution of historical injustices absorb much of Palestinian politics, and acts of violence continue to take place in connection to it. Yet, the state on offer to Palestine has been in rapid decline following the conflict and the expansion of Israel’s colonial settlement project. Internal strife between the two most dominant Palestinian political factions - the secular organization Fatah in the West Bank and the Islamic movement Hamas in Gaza - also divides the country. Coordination around domestic and Israeli occupation related issues, in turn, have been marred by the increasingly authoritarian character of the Palestinian National Authority – the Palestinian domestic body with authority to exercise partial control.
Before the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, political stagnation due to corruption, the indefinite postponement of presidential elections, an increasingly strong executive, and a vast security apparatus that can effectively repress its critics characterized the context. However, the main issues have now shifted to reversing the profound impacts of the war, including destroyed infrastructure, food insecurity, disease and the forceful displacement of almost the entire population of Gaza.
Despite ratifying relevant international treaties, Palestine ranks low in gender equality due to entrenched patriarchal socio-cultural norms, exacerbated by Israeli occupation and Gaza’s war. Women’s participation in the labour market and in politics are low. As the current war continues, men are unable to perform traditional roles. Education has also been severely disrupted.
Going forward, democratic progress will depend on the cessation of the current war with Israel. The conduct of this war is the subject of legal proceedings at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. In a post-conflict context, it will be important to watch developments related to the resumption of national elections, any openings related to sovereign statehood, and the design of mechanisms to govern such a state. Barring statehood, the shape of post-war reconstruction and the right of return of Palestinian refugees will determine the degree to which democratization can progress.
Last Updated: November 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
January 2025
Gaza ceasefire reached between Israel and Hamas
On 19 January, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, potentially ending 15 months of war in Gaza. The first phase of the agreement, planned to last 42 days, is to involve the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for 1,900 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons. Israel has also started to withdraw its military forces from populated areas and the Netzarim Corridor in Gaza, allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their homes and facilitating the entry and delivery of humanitarian aid. If successful, a second phase would involve an additional exchange of hostages and prisoners and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops. The third phase would focus on Gaza's reconstruction. The agreement, mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, showed initial progress by the end of January, but concerns about its stability remain. Details of the second and third phases of the ceasefire are yet to be negotiated.
Sources: Financial Times, WAFA, Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sada News
40,000 forcibly displaced by Israeli offensive in northern West Bank
On 21 January, Israel launched "Iron Wall," a large-scale military operation in the northern West Bank, which initially targeted Jenin Camp before quickly expanding to the refugee camps of Tulkarm, Nur Shams, and Faraa. In early February, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees reported that the violence has rendered these camps uninhabitable, displacing over 40,000 people (more than half the population of these camps). At least 29 Palestinians were killed, and many more were injured, with homes and civilian infrastructure severely destroyed by airstrikes. Further military raids were also reported in Hebron, Bethlehem, and East Jerusalem. The escalation also saw an increase in attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian villages, following a decision by the United States to lift sanctions on violent settlers.
Sources: Associated Press, Al Arabiya, Reuters, WAFA, UNRWA
December 2024
Palestinian Authority launches operation against militant groups in Jenin
In December, the Palestinian Authority (PA) launched a large-scale operation in the northern West Bank, targeting militant groups in the Jenin refugee camp. The PA stated that the operation aimed to reestablish control and disarm militias, while the militant groups accused the PA of collaborating with Israel to suppress resistance. As clashes intensified, the PA deployed snipers and opened fire on demonstrators supporting the militant groups, causing injuries. Analysts describe the situation as the most intense intra-Palestinian fighting since 2007, suggesting the PA is seeking to demonstrate to Israel, the US and other potential brokers that it could maintain security within the Gaza strip should it be allowed to govern there after the war. With declining domestic support for the PA, these developments may further inflame intra-Palestinian tensions and similar operations that lead to more violence in the West Bank.
Sources: Associated Press, Reuters, The New Arab, The Washington Post, Middle East Eye, Mada Masr
October 2024
Israel intensifies military operations in northern Gaza
In October, Israel intensified military operations in northern Gaza. Over 1,100 Palestinians were killed, making it the deadliest month in the North Gaza governorate this year. Israel ordered the evacuation of the approximately 400,000 residents and cut off essential supplies like food, water, fuel, and medicine. This compounds a context marked by the collapse of the healthcare, water and sanitations systems. 91 per cent of the population faces severe food insecurity and famine risk is rising as aid is restricted and 70 per cent of Gaza's agricultural resources have been destroyed. Over the past year, Israeli evacuation orders have impacted at least 84 per cent of Gaza's total area, forcing nearly 2 million people—the entire population—into repeated displacement.
Sources: Associated Press, OCHA, United Nations (1), United Nations (2), Relief Web, OtP Health Cluster, World Health Organization, United Nations (3), UNRWA, Forensic Architecture, World Food Programme, UNDP, International Labour Organisation, UNICEF
UNRWA service provision at risk following Israeli ban
On 28 October, the Israeli Knesset passed two bills that prohibit the operations in Israel of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The ban, set to take effect 90 days from its passage, is likely to severely impede the agency in carrying out its role as the principal provider of essential aid and services to Palestinians. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that there is currently no viable alternative to UNRWA and that, amidst the acute humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the ban will leave Palestinians there without the life-sustaining assistance they need, including healthcare, shelter and food aid. The ban will also impact the welfare of Palestinians in the West Bank who rely on UNRWA's clinics, schools, and social services.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post, United Nations (1), United Nations (2), Reuters, Amnesty International, UN Secretary General
September 2024
Israeli military shuts down Al Jazeera’s offices in Ramallah
On 22 September, Israeli forces raided Al Jazeera’s office in Ramallah, seizing equipment and issuing a renewable 45-day suspension order. Although Ramallah is under the Palestinian Authority’s control in Area A of the occupied West Bank, the raid was carried out under a military closure order reportedly authorized by the head of the Israeli Defence Forces’ Central Command. This follows a law passed in April that empowers Israeli ministers to close foreign news outlets considered a "national security threat." In May, Israel then ordered Al Jazeera to cease operations within its territory, including the closure of its East Jerusalem bureau. Al Jazeera is one of the few international media outlets reporting from Gaza amid the ongoing war and has faced significant challenges since Israel first contemplated plans to shut it down in 2017. This has included the killing, intimidation and arrest of its journalists by Israeli forces, which intensified with the onset of the 2023 war in Gaza. The network condemned the Ramallah office raid and stated it would continue its coverage of Gaza and the occupied territories.
Update: In early January 2025, the Palestinian Authority (PA) suspended Al Jazeera’s operations in the occupied West Bank, halting its TV broadcasts and blocking access to its websites for an initial period of four months. The decision followed tensions over the network’s coverage of the PA security forces’ operation against militant groups in Jenin in December 2024. Shortly after the PA’s announcement, Israeli authorities renewed the 45-day closure order on Al Jazeera’s offices in Ramallah.
Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera (1), Al Jazeera (2), Haaretz, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), WAFA, United Nations, Middle East Monitor, International IDEA (3)
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