
Syrian Arab Republic

The Syrian Arab Republic exhibits low-range performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) conceptual framework. It falls among the world’s bottom 25 per cent of countries with regard to most factors. Compared to five years ago, it has experienced advances in Rule of Law, albeit from very low starting levels, as well as declines in Economic Equality. The country’s recent history has been marked by a civil war that began in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. The government’s violent suppression of those protests led to a civil war that has since ravaged the country. With GDP cut in half and access to main oil fields lost, the captagon trade worth an estimated $5 billion annually, has become a crucial economic lifeline for the regime. Some local businesses and informal markets endure the turmoil.
The GSoD Indices data only reflect events inside government-controlled territory.
Syria gained independence in 1946 after 26 years of French control. The country is home to a diverse population, with Sunni Muslims comprising the large majority, followed by Alawi Muslims, and Druze, Ismaili and Christian communities. Post-independence Syria saw recurrent coups, culminating in the 1963 coup by the socialist and Arab nationalist Baath Party. Baathist rule was consolidated in 1970 through Hafez al-Assad’s ‘Corrective Movement’ which relied heavily on the minority Alawi community to fill government positions, creating a system of patronage and politicizing sectarian divisions between Alawi and Sunni Muslims. The regime also involved Syria in the Arab-Israeli conflict and Lebanon's civil war to strengthen regional influence. President Bashar Al-Assad assumed power in 2000 after his father’s death, inheriting a legacy of centralization, sectarian co-optation, and violent crackdown of dissent.
The Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011 with protests against President Assad, swiftly escalated into a multifaceted conflict involving multiple actors. Key fronts of the war have included the battle against the Islamic State, which was largely defeated by an international coalition and US-backed Kurdish forces in 2018. These Kurdish forces seized the remaining IS territory in 2019, leading the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to maintain autonomy in those areas, although this has resulted in an uneasy détente with the regime. Additionally, there are ongoing government-opposition clashes and Turkish offensives against Kurdish forces.
The war has created the world’s largest refugee population with around 13 million people displaced. Syrian territory is now de facto partitioned. The Assad government, supported by Russia, controls approximately 70 per cent of the country but it continues to battle a coalition of Islamist militants in the northwest. In the northeast, the SDF often clash with local Arab tribes and face assaults from Turkey. Iran has also intervened in the war in various ways, including in majority-Druze areas like Suwayda.
Although elections take place in Assad-controlled territory, they serve to preserve the current regime. Syria lacks a formal gender quota system and in the 2022 parliamentary elections, women secured only 10.4% of the seats. At a broader level, women and girls have been particularly impacted by the war, representing 74 per cent of the six million Syrians requiring nutritional assistance.
In the coming years, the most pressing challenges are the unresolved fragmentation of the country, the humanitarian crisis and social grievances. Until these fundamental problems are resolved, addressing other democratic concerns will remain a distant goal.
Last Updated: June 2024
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May 2025
New transitional justice and missing persons commissions formed
On 17 May, two presidential decrees established the National Commission for Transitional Justice (NCTJ) and the National Commission for the Missing and Forcibly Disappeared (NCM). According to the transitional government, the commissions are intended to provide access to truth, accountability, and redress for victims of the civil war. The NCTJ will be mandated to investigate serious human rights violations committed during the conflict, with a scope limited to crimes attributed to the former Assad regime. The NCM will be responsible for documenting cases of enforced disappearance, developing a national database, and assisting families to locate missing relatives. Its mandate applies to all cases of missing and forcibly disappeared persons, regardless of the responsible party. Overall, observers described the creation of the commissions as a step forward in the establishment of national transitional justice mechanisms, while noting that their effectiveness will depend on implementation.
Sources: Syrian Arab News Agency, Syria TV, Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic (1), Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic (2), The International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism, Justice Info (1), Justice Info (2)
March 2025
President Al-Sharaa signs constitutional declaration for five-year transition
On 13 March, President Al-Sharaa signed a constitutional declaration for a five-year transitional period. The interim constitution requires the President to be Muslim and designates Islamic jurisprudence as the ‘main source’ of legislation. It grants the President full executive power, abolishing the role of Prime Minister. A new legislative assembly will be formed, with one-third of its members directly appointed by the President, and the rest chosen by a committee he also appoints. While judicial independence is nominally guaranteed, the President will appoint all seven members of the Higher Constitutional Court. The declaration includes language to protect women’s rights, press freedoms, and the “personal affairs” of religious minorities. However, provisions criminalizing the denial, justification, or glorification of Assad-era crimes and symbols have raised concerns that their broad language could be used to restrict freedom of expression. This declaration replaces the 2012 constitution, suspended in December 2024. Al-Sharaa assumed the presidency in January following a conference of armed groups.
Sources: Constitution Net, Human Rights Watch, Enab Baladi, Syria Justice and Accountability Centre
President Al-Sharaa appoints new transitional government
On 29 March, President Ahmed al-Sharaa appointed a new caretaker government, replacing the initial transitional cabinet formed after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. The newly established 23-member cabinet comprises technocrats, former opposition figures, and individuals with links to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) —a former armed group led by al-Sharaa that previously governed Idlib in northwest Syria. The cabinet reflects the country’s ethnic and religious diversity, with a Sunni majority alongside representatives from minority communities, including a Christian, a Kurd, a Druze, and an Alawite. However, Hind Kabawat, the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs, is the only woman in the cabinet. Former Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir now heads the Ministry of Energy, following the abolition of the prime minister's office under the newly adopted interim constitution.
Sources: Middle East Eye, Syria TV, The New Arab, Al Quds Al Arabi
Over 1,000 killed as sectarian violence escalates in coastal regions
Sectarian violence surged in coastal regions between 6 and 17 March, with the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) documenting 1,084 deaths. The wave of violence began on 6 March in Jableh, Latakia, when former regime loyalists attacked Syrian security forces and reportedly started forest fires, killing at least 16 people. This triggered clashes and reprisals from government forces and allied militias. During the clashes, General Ibrahim Huweija, former head of Assad’s air force intelligence and who is accused of crimes under Hafez al-Assad’s rule, was arrested. During the period of rising violence, over 600 civilians, mostly Alawites, were killed in Latakia, Tartous, and Hama, amid reports of excessive force, arbitrary killings, and forced disappearances. In response to reports of massacres, President Al-Sharaa pledged accountability and, on 10 March, formed an independent investigation committee with a 30-day deadline to report its findings.
Sources: Middle East Eye, Enab Baladi, Syrian Arab News Agency, Syrian Network for Human Rights, The New Arab, Middle East Monitor, Al Arabiya, Amnesty International
December 2024
Armed opposition forces overthrow al-Assad and form interim government
On 8 December, President Bashar al-Assad’s government was overthrown by armed opposition forces, ending 54 years of Assad family rule. The offensive, launched on 27 November and led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) alongside Turkish-backed factions, quickly seized control of key cities, including Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus. Assad fled to Moscow and the Baath Party announced the suspension of its activities. Thousands of people gathered in the streets in cities across the country to celebrate the fall of the regime. Approximately 2,000 prisoners were released from the Sednaya prison, a military facility infamous for reports of detention, torture, and executions during the civil war. HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has since emerged as Syria's de facto head of state, forming an interim government led by Prime Minister Mohamed al-Bashir and former ministers from the Syrian Salvation Government in Idlib. The new authorities have suspended the constitution and parliament, declaring a transition period until 1 March 2025.
Sources: Reuters, Reuters (2), Al Arabiya, The New Arab, The New York Times, Enab Baladi
September 2024
100,000 refugees flee to Syria amid airstrikes in Lebanon
Since Israel intensified its airstrikes on Lebanon on 23 September, approximately 100,000 people fled to Syria within just one week, seeking to escape the escalating conflict. Of those fleeing, 60 per cent are returning Syrian refugees, while the remaining 40 per cent are newly displaced Lebanese nationals, according to the UN refugee agency. Most of those fleeing, according to the UNHCR, were children under the age of eighteen, making up 60 per cent of the total arrivals, along with women and people with disabilities. On 29 September, the Syrian government waived the USD 100 entry fee for Syrian nationals. Some shelters were also reportedly set up for a limited number of Lebanese nationals. However, Syria remains insecure and returning refugees risk persecution by government forces and/or armed groups, as well as difficulties accessing basic services, housing, and employment.
Sources: UNHCR, UNFPA, Al Jazeera, Ministry of Finance of the Syrian Arab Republic, Syrian Network for Human Rights, International IDEA
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