Modern-day Turkmenistan first came under Russian control in the 19th century, but nomadic Turkmen society persisted until the 1920s and 1930s, when Soviet indigenization and collectivization projects reorganized Turkmen society along Soviet lines. The country’s communist-era political elite did not significantly change upon independence in 1991, with First Secretary of the Turkmen Communist Party, Saparmurat Niyazov, becoming President and the Party becoming the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan. Niyazov also established the pattern of building a cult of personality, issuing idiosyncratic and autocratic decrees that have made it one of the most repressive nations on earth, such as his decisions to ban gold teeth and long hair, close all libraries outside the capital and rename the month of April after his mother.

Niyazov’s successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, relaxed some of the more extreme decrees and moved the country from a totalitarian to an authoritarian neopatrimonial model and recreated aspects of his predecessor’s cult of personality. He oversaw the introduction of theoretically multi-party and competitive parliamentary elections in 2008, but even the rubber-stamp parliament has frequently been subservient to an appointed Council of Elders. Although his son, Serdar has formally been president since 2022, Gurbanguly reportedly continues to hold power behind the scenes. The election that brought Serdar to power, like all previous ones, was neither free nor fair.

Reliable portrayals of everyday Turkmen socioeconomic life are difficult to produce, as independent research is risky and the Turkmen government habitually obscures and falsifies official data. Half of the population is estimated to be working abroad. Turkmenistan has a dismal human rights record, where civil and political rights are absent and public order is maintained through systematized extrajudicial violence and torture. In addition, the Turkmen government engages in transnational repression. Traditional gender roles are enforced through decrees and unwritten laws curtailing women’s personal freedom and access to reproductive care, and men are barred from growing beards or adopting behaviour that might be interpreted as too Islamic. The 1990s saw significant outmigration of ethnic minorities, and while official statistics are unreliable, Uzbeks are the largest ethnic minority group with roughly 300,000 members. Reports of discrimination and forced ‘Turkmenization’ of Uzbeks occasionally appear in independent media.

Turkmenistan’s longstanding economic crisis was exacerbated by the pandemic, but there is little prospect of reform as long as the ruling elite can depend on Chinese purchases of natural gas. The perpetual shortage of data hampers accurate modelling, but it will be important to watch Basic Welfare, since continued economic instability in Turkey and Russia, the main destination countries for Turkmen labor, could impact this factor. Finally, as a country dominated by arid deserts, even minor climatic variations in line with standard for the region could render much Turkmen agriculture unsustainable in the coming decades.

Last Updated: June 2024