Armenia
Armenia exhibits mid-range performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework, with relatively higher scores in Rights and lower scores in Rule of Law. It is among the world’s top 25 per cent of countries with regard to Social Group Equality. Over the past five years, Armenia has experienced notable improvements across multiple factors of performance, but has suffered no declines. An upper-middle income country, Armenia has vibrant viticulture, manufacturing and mining industries. Armenia has been in a balancing act over economic integration with Russia and the West, and in 2013 opted to join the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union and eventually downsize the ambition of its agreement with the European Union.
Armenia held its first multiparty elections in 1995, and shifted from a semi-presidential to parliamentary system in 2015. The 2018 Velvet Revolution represented a significant democratic breakthrough for Armenia. Soon after, Nikol Pashinyan, one of the leaders of the revolution, and his reformist political coalition won elections on a platform of accountability for corrupt elites, a more independent judiciary and constitutional reform. This program was frustrated by Azerbaijan’s defeat of Armenia and the self-declared Republic of Artsakh in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Ethnic Armenian separatists in the then-Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic first declared their independence in 1988 (when both countries were part of the Soviet Union), and in 1994, when they defeated Azerbaijani forces in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (with Armenian support) to establish the self-declared state which remained militarily, economically, and diplomatically dependent on Armenia. Decades of failure to resolve the conflict diplomatically, and the 2020 defeat delivered a hard blow to Pashinyan’s government, soured public opinion, and set the stage for the self-declared Republic of Artsakh to surrender completely to Azerbaijan following a long blockade and renewed military offensive in September 2023. The surrender sparked an influx of ethnic Armenian refugees fleeing the former self-declared republic, while the lives of 120,000 living in the territory remained at stake at the time of writing.
The memory of the community’s suffering as a non-Muslim minority group in the Ottoman Empire, which Armenia and over twenty other countries classify as a genocide, permeates Armenian political life. Armenia itself is relatively homogenous - 98 per cent ethnic Armenian but also includes Russian, Kurdish, Yezidi minorities - and over 90 per cent of Armenians identify as members of the Armenian Apostolic church.
Women’s political participation is low in Armenia, traditional gender roles are strongly enforced, and the labour market is affected by both horizontal and vertical gender segregation. Maternal mortality is eight times the European Union average, and Armenian women are largely absent from peace talks and diplomatic discussions with Azerbaijan (as are Azerbaijani women).
It will be important to watch whether the momentum on judicial reform can be sustained and how the future of anti-corruption reforms will be affected. In this respect, the indicators on Judicial Independence and Absence of Corruption will merit particular attention. It also remains to be seen how Armenia will navigate its relationships with regional and international powers as a small state embedded in an increasingly multipolar global power balance; and in particular how Armenia evaluates its reliance on Russia, distracted and weakened from the full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched in 2022, for security and peacekeeping on its borders.
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
April 2024
Agreement to transfer villages prompts protests
Armenia formally agreed to transfer control of four abandoned villages to Azerbaijan on 19 April as part of ongoing peace negotiations between the two countries. The abandoned villages have been under Armenian military occupation since 1991 and neighbour populated Armenian villages, whose residents have raised concerns over security and the ability to maintain their livelihoods when the transfers go ahead. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has argued the unilateral handover is necessary to preserve Armenia’s security, but the announcement was met with significant opposition criticism and large public protests beginning on 25 April. Protesters hold that the unilateral handover has instead diminished national security, given Azerbaijan’s recent claims that much of Armenia is actually historical “western Azerbaijan.” Tens of thousands were reportedly protesting in the capital of Yerevan by 9 May, calling for Pashinyan’s resignation.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio Azatutyun, International IDEA, Jam News
March 2024
Plan to transfer villages to Azerbaijan raises tensions
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has suggested, under significant political pressure and threats of military action from Azerbaijan, that Armenia would hand over four abandoned Azerbaijani villages that have been under its control since the early 1990s. Pashinyan argues a handover is necessary to head off Azerbaijani military aggression, and domestic opposition argues the handover only weakens Armenia’s national security and heightens the risk of conflict. There is currently no specific timeline of when the handover of de jure Azerbaijani territory to Azerbaijan would occur.
Sources: OC Media, Eurasianet
Investigations put spotlight on ruling party finances
Two separate journalistic investigations found a pattern of large campaign donations from individuals who professed no knowledge of ever donating to the ruling Civil Contract Party. Many of the individuals also had insufficient financial means to make the payments or were connected to wealthy businessmen and senior government officials. Civil Contract reportedly raised AMD 506.5 million (USD 1.25 million) for last year’s municipal elections, and individual donors contacted by journalists frequently either refused to speak on the record or claimed to not have made a donation at all. Some who did acknowledge making a donation had given the party an amount several times greater than their annual incomes. Local NGOs and activists have demanded a criminal investigation, but the Office of the Prosecutor-General has responded that no unusual activity has taken place and said it will not file charges.
Sources: OCCRP, Radio Azatutyun
December 2023
Civil Contract accused of undermining local democracy
After abruptly leaving a municipal coalition agreement in the country’s second largest city of Gyumri and replacing a mayor in the town of Alaverdi on 5-6 December, the ruling Civil Contract party has been accused by domestic NGOs and media of undermining the functioning of local democratic institutions that it does not control. Police answerable to the national government have allegedly been used to pressure opposition public officials and interfere in local governments, Armenian rights organizations accused Civil Contract of using blackmail and behind-the-scenes pressure to force local officials to abandon governing coalitions and support its candidates, and the party’s representatives have boycotted proceedings and abandoned coalitions without explanation, paralyzing local governments. Civil Contract was previously accused by opponents and civil society organizations of carrying out similar campaigns in the capital Yerevan and in Vanadzor, the country’s third largest city.
Sources: OC Media, CivilNet, Azatutyun (1), Azatutyun (2), Hetq
October 2023
Armenia ratifies Rome Statute
The Armenian Parliament on 3 October adopted a bill ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The move comes after Armenia’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War and government frustration at the lack of support during and after the conflict from Russia, its historical security guarantor who operates two military bases in the country. Armenia has insisted the move was not anti-Russian but predicated on its own security interests, such as one day turning to the court to prosecute crimes committed by Azerbaijan during the two states’ decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Sources: Eurasianet, Deutsche Welle
Surprise and confusion as Karabakhis labelled refugees
The Armenian government approved on 26 October the extension of “temporary protected status” to the more than 100,000 Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh after the disputed territory returned to Azerbaijani control in September 2023. The announcement was met with surprise and anger, as nearly all Karabakhi Armenians also hold Armenian passports they believed also indicated they held Armenian citizenship. The status will be legal for one year. Karabakhi refugees are eligible to apply for Armenian citizenship in order to gain voting rights, pensions, and access to other social services.
Sources: Eurasianet, Civilnet
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GSoD Indices Data 2014-2023
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