Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is an overall low performing country in the South Caucasus, scoring in the bottom 25 per cent globally across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. Over the past five years, it has experienced a significant decline in Social Group Equality. The country’s government and economy have largely been controlled by the family and close associates of Presidents Heydar (1993-2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003-present). A major player in the oil industry since the 19th century, Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on petrochemical exports and industries that allow elites to recycle petrodollars domestically, such as in construction. The country’s defining political issue, dating back to its time as a part of the Soviet Union, has been the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave over which Azerbaijan fought two wars with neighboring Armenia before driving out the Armenian population and reintegrating the region in late 2023.
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War arose out of a movement for Karabakh Armenian independence during perestroika, which escalated into intercommunal violence, pogroms, and attacks on civilians. The war ended in an Azerbaijani defeat, widespread ethnic cleansing and population transfers, tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of over one million Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and the formation of the unrecognized independent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. After years of failed negotiations and frequent exchanges of fire along the line of contact, Azerbaijan took back much of the disputed territory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, before ethnically cleansing the region’s Armenian population and bringing it under Azerbaijani control in 2023.
Although it historically hosted large Russian, Armenian, Talysh, Jewish, and other minorities, wartime population transfers, outmigration, and assimilation have created a modern Azerbaijan that is over 90 per cent ethnic Azerbaijani; though nearly entirely Muslim, religion has historically played little role in Azerbaijani politics, a trend strengthened by the arising of a distinct secular Azerbaijani identity in the early twentieth century and the intentional ‘de-Islamization’ of public life under the Soviet Union. After decades of personalized authoritarian rule, much of the population is depoliticized, although small, but heavily suppressed opposition parties such as the national-conservative Popular Front Party, the pan-Turkist Musavat, and Shi’a Islamist Muslim Unity Movement maintain committed followings.
GSoD Indices data show Azerbaijan’s performance on gender equality at mid-range for the past three decades. Although women have long been enfranchised (since 1918) and equal rights guaranteed by law, violence and gender inequalities that manifest in education, employment, and political participation continue to impact women. Furthermore, the increased visibility of feminist and LGBTQIA+ activists in recent years has been met with a violent backlash.
An influx of petrochemical wealth from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s following the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the discovery of the Shah Deniz gas field enabled the ruling elite to entrench complete political and economic control over the country. Political opposition movements, human rights activists, and independent journalists are frequently jailed and persecuted, and election outcomes are preordained. Numerous bribery, embezzlement, and grand corruption scandals continue to taint the regime.
The reversal of fortunes brought about by the Second Karabakh War hand the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh has not changed. Azerbaijan continues to extract concessions from Armenia and maintains an aggressive posture to distract from domestic issues and dwindling petrochemical reserves. Shifting regional politics may lessen pressure on Azerbaijan to pay lip service to democratic norms, and 2023 and 2024 saw the return of arbitrary prosecutions of journalists, civil society activists and opposition politicians.
Updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
February 2025
End of an era as Azerbaijan shuts out foreign media
The Azerbaijani government cancelled the accreditation of journalists working at four international media outlets in February: Bloomberg News, Voice of America, BBC Azerbaijan and Russia’s state media outlet Sputnik. Following a year of escalating attacks on independent Azerbaijani media, the moves leave the country essentially without accredited independent Azerbaijani or international journalists. The BBC and Sputnik, which also cover local and international news for an Azerbaijani audience, announced they had closed their offices after being ordered verbally to suspend operations. Turan News Agency, the country’s only news agency not under state control, also announced its closure on 14 February, citing a “political order” to cease operations.
Turan had operated since 1990, and the BBC Azerbaijani Service since 1994. The status of the Voice of America’s operations was unclear in February as the US-government backed agency did not return a media request for comment.
Sources: Turan News Agency, OC Media, Eurasianet
January 2025
Authorities crack down on protesters in southern village
Protests broke out in the southern Azerbaijani village of Yalavaj on 19 January after a speeding police car swerved to avoid another vehicle and hit four children walking on the sidewalk, killing three. Authorities responded by locking down the city with internal troops, detaining over 100 people, shutting off the internet and mobile services in the area, and reportedly torturing those who took part in the protest or posted comments critical of the police on social media. A total of 14 people were arrested and sentenced to three months imprisonment on charges of disorderly conduct. The Ministry of Internal Affairs published a manipulated dashcam video of the accident to hide that police were speeding and were responsible for the accident, which also showed the other vehicle making a routine turn. No police have been punished.
December 2024
Arrest of journalists signals closing media environment
Azerbaijani police detained seven journalists on 8 December on charges of smuggling “illegal money” into the country, bringing the total number of journalists facing similar charges to 22. The arrests mark the first major crackdown on civil society since presidential elections in January 2024 and the COP climate conference in November. Those events, by attracting international attention, were believed to have precipitated previous rounds of arrests, and this latest round indicates the pressure on civil society and closing of the media space is set to become the new status quo. Six of the journalists are affiliated with high-profile independent media outlet Meydan TV. The new arrests, part of a year-long crackdown, were condemned by international right organizations and as with previous cases, the charges are widely believed to be fabricated.
Sources: Eurasianet, International IDEA, Meydan TV
September 2024
Snap elections return ruling party to power
The ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) of President Ilham Aliyev retained its dominant place in Parliament in a snap parliamentary election held on 1 September. YAP retained 68 of 125 seats, with the remainder going to loyal independent MPs or allied parties. The nominally opposition Republican Alternative Party retained its one seat in Parliament. The election was, like previous elections, boycotted by most opposition parties was and neither free nor fair. The election observation mission from the OSCE concluded the election was conducted “against the background of continued repression” and observed “serious irregularities” including 26 cases of ballot box stuffing. Official voting age population turnout was 63.52 per cent, up from 33.58 per cent in 2020, but official data on voter registration and population is of low credibility. The number of women in parliament increased to 26 from 21.
Sources: Eurasianet, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Republic of Azerbaijan Central Election Commission, IPU Parline
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