Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is an overall low performing country in the South Caucasus, scoring in the bottom 25 per cent globally across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. Over the past five years, it has experienced a significant decline in Social Group Equality. The country’s government and economy have largely been controlled by the family and close associates of Presidents Heydar (1993-2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003-present). A major player in the oil industry since the 19th century, Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on petrochemical exports and industries that allow elites to recycle petrodollars domestically, such as in construction. The country’s defining political issue, dating back to its time as a part of the Soviet Union, has been the status of the self-declared independent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, an ethnic Armenian enclave over which it has fought two wars with neighboring Armenia (1988-1994 and September-November 2020).
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War arose out of a movement for Karabakh Armenian independence during perestroika, which escalated into intercommunal violence, pogroms, and attacks on civilians. The war ended in an Azerbaijani defeat, widespread ethnic cleansing and population transfers, tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of over one million Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and the formation of the unrecognized independent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. After years of failed negotiations and frequent exchanges of fire along the line of contact, Azerbaijan took back much of the disputed territory and extracted significant further political concessions from both Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. The government has come under domestic and international criticism for its failure to provide adequate support to the significant number of internally displaced persons who remain.
Although it historically hosted large Russian, Armenian, Talysh, Jewish, and other minorities, wartime population transfers, outmigration, and assimilation have created a modern Azerbaijan that is over 90 per cent ethnic Azerbaijani; though nearly entirely Muslim, religion has historically played little role in Azerbaijani politics, a trend strengthened by the arising of a distinct secular Azerbaijani identity in the early twentieth century and the intentional ‘de-Islamization’ of public life under the Soviet Union. After decades of personalized authoritarian rule, much of the population is depoliticized, although small, but heavily suppressed opposition parties such as the national-conservative Popular Front Party, the pan-Turkist Musavat, and Shi’a Islamist Muslim Unity Movement maintain committed followings.
GSoD Indices data show Azerbaijan’s performance on gender equality at mid-range for the past three decades. Although women have long been enfranchised (since 1918) and equal rights are guaranteed by law, violence and gender inequalities that manifest in education, employment, and political participation continue to impact women. Furthermore, the increased visibility of feminist and LGBTQIA+ activists in recent years has been met with a violent backlash.
An influx of petrochemical wealth from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s following the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the discovery of the Shah Deniz gas field enabled the ruling elite to entrench complete political and economic control over the country. Political opposition movements, human rights activists, and independent journalists are frequently jailed and persecuted, and election outcomes are preordained. Numerous bribery, embezzlement, and grand corruption scandals continue to taint the regime.
The reversal of fortunes brought about by the Second Karabakh War has not changed the volatile, decisive role the ongoing conflict has on Azerbaijan’s political trajectory. It remains unclear whether the government wishes to realize its long-stated goal of the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh and its ethnic Armenian population, or whether it seeks to maintain ongoing crisis to distract from domestic issues and dwindling petrochemical reserves. Shifting regional politics may lessen pressure on Azerbaijan to pay lip service to democratic norms, which could impact Fundamental Rights.
Monthly Event Reports
February 2024 | Presidential election less contested than usual
Snap presidential elections returned the usual results of a landslide win for President Ilham Aliyev on 7 February. The campaign was marked by a lack of voter engagement, even by Azerbaijani standards, documented ballot stuffing and other election-day irregularities, and token opposition candidates that publicly encouraged voters to choose Aliyev. President Aliyev did not himself campaign or take part in televised debates, and real opposition parties boycotted as usual but, in a novel development, were either unwilling or unable to mobilize public rallies or shows of discontent, as had typically been the case in previous elections.
January 2024 | Azerbaijan delegation withdraws from PACE
The Azerbaijani delegation withdrew from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on 24 January, leaving the country a member of the international rights body but without representation in its assembly. The withdrawal was announced several hours before PACE held a vote expelling the delegation for Azerbaijan’s failure to meet its commitments to hold free and fair elections, respect human rights, and other democratic principles. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on 1 February the country would pull out of the Council and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) if its voting rights were not reinstated. With Azerbaijan’s justice system considered neither impartial nor independent of the executive, applications to the ECtHR are essentially the only recourse for justice or redress in the country. Azerbaijan would be the third country to withdraw CoE since its founding in 1949 (Greece’s withdrew in 1969 but returned in 1974, and Russia withdrew in March 2022).
December 2023 | Azerbaijan calls snap elections, cracks down on opposition
On 7 December, President Ilham Aliyev signed a decree to hold snap elections in February 2024, a year ahead of schedule. No reason was given for the early elections, and no Azerbaijani election during Aliyev’s twenty years in power has been free or fair. Prominent opposition politician Tofig Yaqublu was arrested on fraud charges shortly after the announcement and faces seven to twelve years of imprisonment, which supporters argue to be a tool to keep him imprisoned during the election campaign. The country’s main opposition parties announced plans to boycott the election, citing the lack of a fair and equal playing field.
November 2023 | Renewed crackdown on independent media
Azerbaijani police arrested seven journalists in late November and early December, prompting outcries from international rights watchdogs and media about the worst crackdown on media freedom in years. Five journalists from the investigative media outlet Abzas Media are being held in pre-trial detention on charges of smuggling foreign currency into the country. The police claim to have found 40,000 USD in cash in Abzas Media’s offices during a raid on 20 November, and pro-government media have repeatedly accused the arrested of being spies of the United States government without providing evidence. Abzas Media and experts say the charges are retaliation for the outlet’s investigations into corruption and public officials. The founders of the online television channels Kanal 11 and Kanal 13 have also been arrested on unrelated charges that observers consider trumped-up.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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