Asia and the Pacific

July - December 2024

The second half of 2024 in Asia and the Pacific saw four national elections, historic shifts of government in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and political contestation over the role and authority of the judiciary in several countries. Most events coded in the Democracy Tracker took place in South and Southeast Asia. New Zealand and Japan were the most represented countries outside these sub-regions.

Emerging patterns

What are some important thematic trends that have emerged over the last 6 months?

Representation

During the latter half of 2024, the primary trends in Representation were political upheaval and electoral reform in contexts like Bangladesh, Nepal and Indonesia, as well as restricted space for opposition political parties in Thailand and Pakistan. While public pressure and judicial intervention halted controversial electoral law changes in Indonesia that threatened opposition parties, the dissolution of the main opposition Move Forward Party in Thailand reflects a broader trend of lawfare being used to silence dissent. In Pakistan, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party continued to endure legal challenges brought on by the ruling coalition government.

In Bangladesh, a student-led uprising abruptly ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, paving the way for an interim government overseeing state institution reforms and organizing new elections. Nepal saw its fourth change in the ruling coalition since the 2022 general election, with the new alliance foreshadowing its plans to amend the constitution and electoral system.

Yet even stable democracies faced turbulence in late 2024, with South Korea’s President briefly declaring martial law, which was swiftly overturned by parliament.

Elections

Four national elections took place in Asia and the Pacific in the second half of the election Supercycle year: three parliamentary (Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, Japan) and one presidential (Sri Lanka). Voting age population turnout across the parliamentary elections averaged 62.8 per cent, down from an average of 63.9 per cent in the previous elections. Among those three elections, female representation increased from 16.9 to 21.1 per cent. Only in Sri Lanka did elections result in real incumbent turnover, where left-leaning candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake swept both presidential and snap parliamentary polls. Following political funding scandals, Japan’s snap parliamentary election delivered a rebuke to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which lost its majority but retained its position as the largest party in the House of Representatives.

Rights

Most events in this six-month period concerned Rights. Restrictions on Civil Liberties were marked by the repression of protests in contexts like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which in the latter case led up to Hasina’s departure. In Malaysia and Pakistan, efforts to regulate online content are increasingly being used as tools to restrict Freedom of Expression and control an open Internet. In contrast, Bangladesh took a positive step by deciding to repeal the controversial Cybersecurity Act.

The region also saw significant progress in accountability and reconciliation efforts; Nepal passed its long-awaited transitional justice law in August, while Thailand took the historic step to end statelessness and grant citizenship to nearly 500,000 people.

Women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights saw a mix of progress and setbacks. Afghanistan continued its crackdown on women’s autonomy in the public and private sphere, while Vanuatu banned same-sex marriage and announced its plans to draft a national policy banning LGBTQIA+ advocacy as well. To the contrary, Indonesia narrowly expanded abortion rights, New Zealand passed a divorce law protecting domestic abuse victims, and parliamentary elections in Japan and Sri Lanka boosted women’s representation in the legislature.

Rule of Law

Events coded as Rule of Law reflected both major political upheavals, primarily in South and Southeast Asia, and contestation over the authority of the judiciary. In Pakistan, the Supreme Court acted to ensure that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party could take its allotment of reserved parliamentary seats and thus deny the government a supermajority, and later reinstated highly contested anti-corruption laws. In response, the nation’s parliament moved to exert more direct control over the Court, passing legislation allowing it to choose the next Chief Justice.

Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court was also active in ruling to compel the government to hold much-delayed local elections (despite the Court’s intervention, local elections remain indefinitely delayed as of December 2024). Elsewhere, popular mobilization was necessary to ensure the judiciary and the legislature adhered to the rule of law – in Indonesia, a significant bottom-up movement against changes to the electoral system seen as unduly benefitting the ruling coalition and the family of outgoing President Joko Widodo led the parliament to swiftly backtrack.

Participation

As with the first half of the year, very few events were coded under Participation in the region. Those that were, however, reflected milestone events in the ability of mass civic participation to alter the course of national politics. In Bangladesh, the uprising which saw the end of Sheikh Hasina’s fifteen year rule spoke to the strength of local civil society and popular resilience despite years of democratic backsliding and police repression. As noted above under Rule of Law, Indonesia’s August nationwide protests showcased the ability of organized civil society and mass protests to prevent a government from straying too far outside of the agreed-upon limits to its discretion. Even in authoritarian Cambodia, simmering dissatisfaction on social media, dispersed local networks, and the Cambodian diaspora pressured the government into reversing an unpopular decades-old regional economic agreement.

What is important to watch over the next 6 months?

While much of the 2024 was relatively stable in Asia and the Pacific, its closing months were marked by sudden political changes that could foretell major democratic changes throughout the region. Historic new governments in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will have to handle high expectations, major reform agendas, and shore up their nation’s economies under adverse international financial conditions. The former’s reform commissions are due to submit reports to the Interim Government on 31 December, after which it will deliberate and decide on next steps. The Philippines will hold a mid-term general election on 27 May 2025 and, given the turmoil caused by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt to declare martial law, it is reasonable to expect South Korea may hold snap elections as well. In New Zealand, a highly contentious debate over the proposed reinterpretation of Treaty of Waitangi is expected, which may bode ill for relations between the country’s ruling parties and the Maori community. Australia is also scheduled to hold a federal election before 18 May.

What we are reading

The Centre for Policy Alternatives report, The Intersectional Trends of Land Conflicts in Sri Lanka, (20 August 2024), examines decades of land disputes that have entrenched power imbalances, deterred reconciliation efforts, and marginalized minority communities. These issues persist fifteen years after the end of the civil war, particularly in the Northern and Eastern provinces, where private and state actors continue to inflame ethnic tensions and violate fundamental rights. The report recommends measures to counter state-sponsored colonization, address ethnic and religious divides, and impose safeguards of development projects. As tensions in the region rise, President Dissanayake’s newly elected administration – together with all stakeholders – will need to address minorities’ demands for justice, accountability and autonomy.

In post-Hasina Bangladesh, the International Crisis Group’s report, A New Era in Bangladesh? The First Hundred Days of Reform, (12 November 2024) provides an overview of the progress and challenges facing the interim government's ambitious political reform agenda. The report recommends sustaining public support and building political consensus among key groups, i.e. political parties, the military and student leaders. Some suggestions include resisting public pressure to ban the Awami League and expanding the cabinet to provide better support for overstretched advisers. Democracy assistance providers are also advised to provide financial and technical assistance to forthcoming reform processes.