Murithi Mutiga on Africa’s elections supercycle: Countering coups, electoral credibility and developments to watch

2024 is the year of the global elections supercycle. Seventy-three national elections are scheduled to be held before the end of the year, with 18 of these taking place in African countries. They come at a challenging time for democracy in Africa, which has in recent years been buffeted by debt crises, coups d’état and declining institutional trust. To get a mid-point analysis of the impact of the supercycle on African democracy and expert advice on what to watch in the coming months, International IDEA’s David Towriss interviewed Murithi Mutiga, the International Crisis Group’s Program Director for Africa.   

1. We are mid-way through the 2024 election super cycle. What are the African elections this year likely to reveal about the state of democracy on the continent? 

The picture is quite mixed. It's a diverse continent with very different dynamics in its various countries and the upcoming elections will reflect that. The importance of the events in Senegal [the electoral defeat of incumbent president Macky Sall by Bassirou Diomaye Faye], for example, was to demonstrate that change can be achieved through the ballot box. When I was in Dakar just last week, coming from the airport, I was struck by the fact there was not a single poster of the winning presidential candidate [Faye]. It showed that this was a grassroots-driven campaign fuelled by a desire for change. Less positive was what we witnessed recently in Chad, which was an election in which the outcome was fore-ordained and was preceded by quite ugly developments, including the killing of an opposition leader [Yaya Dillo Djerou]. I think that in countries such as Ghana, where institutions remain strong, we will see meaningful elections, and what we have seen in Senegal is heartening, but in places like Chad we still see regression.

2. I'd like to pick up on what you said about Senegal. Could you tell me a little bit more about the significance of the election there?

One of the striking things about West Africa and the Sahel over the last couple of years is that we've witnessed this succession of coups, and that has led to a lot of debate about what underpins them. It's a mistake to think that it's a rejection of democracy. Yes, it's true that these coups have been quite popular. We see that, for example, the Malian military regime continues to enjoy significant popularity, particularly in urban areas. But the way we read it is that it has been a rejection of old elites rather than a rejection of democracy. We see still very strong support for democracy in recent surveys carried out by the Open Society Foundation and the UNDP. But there's been a wholesale rejection of elites that don't deliver. People want democracy to be meaningful and to deliver in terms of public services and especially in terms of economic development.

What we've seen in Senegal was a demonstration that you don't have to turn to the barracks to achieve change. We see a very young, virtually unknown president [Faye], who until recently was detained, benefit from this huge rejection of Macky Sall’s attempts to subvert democracy and stay in power. I think that it'll be an experiment that is watched carefully. Expectations run very high. When you're in Senegal, they keep talking about ‘the project’. The project of change, the project of tackling corruption, improving job creation and preserving Senegal's democracy. They're very proud of the fact that the country has resisted this type of coup [that has taken place elsewhere in the region] and that over the past two decades it has maintained this culture of not allowing presidents to serve for more than two terms. So [given] this huge expectation, it's very important that he gets all the support he needs to deliver. But it was a hugely positive and welcome development.

3. Do you know how Faye’s election has been received in coup affected countries within the region?

We haven't seen survey data yet, but we know what the leaders of the military juntas in some of the coup affected countries have said on this question. They talk about [the problem of] electoral authoritarianism in the rest of West Africa. They point out that [President] Alassane Ouattara is about to run for a fourth term in Côte d'Ivoire. They also played very heavily on Macky Sall’s attempts to subvert democracy [in Senegal]. And so, they tend to tout their decisions to seize power as reflecting a frustration with a failure of democracy and with elites that insist on remaining in office while delivering little. The coup in Gabon, for example, was basically prompted by a rigged election and the perception that the president [Ali Bongo] wanted to undemocratically stay in power.

The election in Senegal is really important because it demonstrates [to the region] that you can achieve meaningful change through the ballot box and that elections matter. I would imagine that this development will lead to Senegal playing a very important role as a bridge between the regional bloc [ECOWAS] and these coup leaders.

4. Since the election of President Faye, Mozambique’s ruling party, Frelimo, has selected 47-year-old Daniel Fancisco Chapo as its candidate for the country’s forthcoming presidential election. Do you think we are likely to see young leaders coming through in other parts of the continent?

I think one of the issues that has divided Africa's leaders from their people is the prevalence of gerontocracies. We have very old leaders when compared to the average age of their populations, which in some countries is as young as 16. And that creates a distance between the governed and their leaders. The trend [of younger leaders is one] that needs to be encouraged. It's a trend that is obviously positive, but what is more important is that elections need to be seen as fair and that the results reflect the will of the people. I think that Mozambique failed that test with their previous legislative elections, in which the ruling party swept the board. We saw that in Zimbabwe as well. Not many people, will consider those elections to have been free and fair. So, yes, we need that generational shift, but what is most important is that people need to see their choices reflected in elections that are meaningful.

5. What are the three most important democracy-related developments that Africa watchers should be monitoring over the next six months?

I will watch Ghana's general election with interest, because Ghana has proven itself to be one of the most stable democracies on the continent. It has experienced regular transfers of power between the two leading political parties [the New Patriotic Party and the National Democratic Congress], and elections in general tend to be fair and the outcomes accepted by the elites and the masses.

It will also be important to monitor the manner in which the Senegalese government consolidates. Whether it can deliver, whether it can meet the very high expectations of its people will be critical.

One overarching issue to watch is that of the continent’s fragile economy. The world has gone through a period of considerable tumult - the Covid pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and climatic stresses. It seems, however, that Africa is recovering more slowly than the rest of the world and it is an issue that is estranging leaders from their people. Inflation is more than double the global average and a lot of money is now going into the servicing of debt instead of public services. I think this will lead to brittleness and fragility. Addressing these massive economic challenges will be really important if Africa is to enjoy political stability in the long run.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.