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Chad
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Chad demonstrates low levels of performance across all four categories in the Global State of Democracy’s (GSoD) framework. Due to a coup in 2021, the country’s Representation score is 0 in 2022. Over the last five years, Chad has experienced declines in all factors of Representation and in Access to Justice and Judicial Independence. Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world and relies heavily on oil exports for its revenue. The country is an important counter-terrorism actor. Domestically, it has fought Boko Haram insurgents. Regionally, Chad has contributed troops – not without controversy – to the G-5 Sahel Joint Force, France’s former Operation Barkhane, and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali. It entered into a recession in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounding long-standing debt management difficulties.
Chad was part of the Kanem-Bornu Empire until France imposed colonial rule between 1900 and 1960. France deployed soldiers to administer the Chadian colony, which was governed through violent force and which stoked inter-communal divisions. The country’s post-independence history has been coloured by protracted conflict, including violent contest for political power, enduring ethnic and religious tension, poverty, and spill-over conflict from its neighbouring countries. Political and insurrectionist dissent has been driven by the competition over oil revenues, corruption, ethnic politics, and state oppression.
Chad faces multiple challenges to democratization, the foremost of which is uncertainty regarding the current military regime’s intention to transition to democratic, civilian leadership. Major insurgent groups contest a peace agreement forged between Chad’s government and 30 rebel and opposition groups. Additionally, unresolved inter-ethnic conflict, fuelled by former President Déby’s preferential treatment of his own Zaghawa ethnic group, continues to be a problem. Climate change-related natural disasters have worsened resource-driven intercommunal conflict. The proliferation of arms throughout Chad and its insecure borders, some of which are sites of violent conflict in other countries, present a security challenge and contribute to local-level conflict. Chad’s northern, eastern, and southern borders are high-risk areas. Domestic and international conflict, especially in Sudan, Central African Republic, and Cameroon, have resulted in a large number of internally displaced persons and a refugee population. Furthermore, Boko Haram has established bases throughout the Lake Chad Basin area, resulting in violence between Chadian forces and the insurgents.
Chad is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent with regard to performance on Gender Equality. It has among the world’s highest rates of child marriage, and female genital mutilation is a widespread practice. Gender inequality in Chad can be attributed to challenges unique to the Sahel region, including climate change, food insecurity, poverty, political instability, violent extremism, and conflict. The recent creation of the Observatory for the Promotion of Gender Equality and Equity aimed at promoting gender equality in public policies, seen as a positive development, should be monitored.
Analysis of the GSoD Indices data suggest several areas to watch going forward. One is the likelihood of repressive responses to demands for democratic governance, which may impact Representation and Participation. Chad is vulnerable to conflict developments in its neighbouring countries. Therefore, the worsening of the Boko Haram conflict in Nigeria, clashes in Cameroon, and unrest in Sudan’s Darfur region may result in increased refugees, which could contribute to worsening intercommunal conflicts over limited resources.
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
May 2024
Incumbent Mahamat Déby wins Chad’s transitional presidential election
On 6 May, Chad held presidential elections that formally ended the three-year rule of the country’s transitional military government. Former interim president, Mahamat Déby, of the Patriotic Salvation Movement (Mouvement Patriotique du Salut, MPS) won the election in the first round, receiving 61.03 per cent of the vote, according to official results declared by Chad’s election agency, the Agence nationale de gestion des élections (ANGE) and confirmed by the Constitutional Council (le Conseil constitutionnel). Prime Minister Succès Masra, of Les Transformateurs came in second place with 18.54 per cent. The election was contested by ten candidates, only one of whom, Lydie Beassemda, is a woman. Voter turnout was reported to be 75.89 per cent of registered voters. The election results were unsuccessfully challenged in the Constitutional Council by Masra, who alleged irregularities, including ballot stuffing. Two thousand nine hundred civil society members trained by the European Union were denied accreditation to observe the election by the ANGE , but it was observed by international observers from the Economic Community of West African States and the Community of Sahel-Saharan States, which declared it to have been free and fair.
Sources: Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Voice of America, International IDEA, The Conversation, Tchad Infos
March 2024
Key opposition candidates barred from May presidential election
On 24 March, Chad’s Constitutional Council announced that 10 of the 20 candidates for the forthcoming presidential election in May had been barred due to ‘irregularities’ in their applications. Amongst the excluded candidates were two outspoken critics of the government, Nasour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, the former of which is reported to be the subject of a preliminary criminal investigation by the Constitutional Council for suspected forgery in relation to his application. According to ISS Africa, a research institute, the law applied by the Council to exclude Koursami and another candidate, Clément Bagaou, was obsolete. The candidates approved to compete in the election were regarded by analysts, diplomats and the political opposition as offering little serious challenge to incumbent, Interim President Mahamat Idriss Déby Into. The barring of opposition candidates follows the death in February 2024 of leading opposition figure, Yaya Dillo Djerou, during an army assault.
Sources: Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Al Jazeera, Voice of America, ISS Africa
February 2024
Opposition politician killed by security forces
On 28 February, leader of the Socialist Party without Borders (Parti Socialiste Sans Frontières, PSF), Yaya Dillo Djerou died after a series of violent confrontations between his party and security forces. First, on 19 February, the PSF was accused of plotting to assassinate the president of the Supreme Court. A senior official in the PSF, Abakar Torabi, was accused of instigating that plot and was arrested by the internal intelligence services (Agence nationale de sécurité de l’État, ANSE). PSF supporters are alleged to have attacked the ANSE headquarters on 27 February. Finally, on 28 February the security services attacked the PSF headquarters, taking control of the facility after an intense exchange of gunfire. The PSF headquarters were later demolished. The exact circumstances of Dillo’s death are unclear; he may have been mortally wounded in the attack on ANSE on 27 February or killed at the PSF headquarters on 28 February. He was viewed as one of the main challengers to interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno in the elections now scheduled for May.
Sources: Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Jeune Afrique (3), France24, The East African
January 2024
Opposition politician appointed prime minister
On 1 January, the transitional government announced that opposition politician Succès Masra was appointed Prime Minister. The appointment came after Masra returned from self-imposed exile in November 2023, having reached an agreement with the government of Mahamat Idriss Déby that allowed him to resume political activities in the country. Masra is the leader of the Transformers party (Les Transformateurs) Along with his support for the ratification of the new constitution in December, joining the government has caused concern among other opposition parties, and even within the Transformers party. Mr. Masra has stated that he will continue to push for elections to take place.
Sources: Africa News, France24, Voice of America, Al Jazeera
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GSoD Indices Data 2014-2023
Basic Information
Human Rights Treaties
Performance by category over the last 6 months
Election factsheets
Global State of Democracy Indices
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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