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Russian Federation
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Russia performs in the low range across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. It falls in the bottom 25 per cent of the world with regard to several factors of Representation, Rights, Rule of Law and Participation. In the last five years, it has experienced notable declines in Effective Parliament, Civil Liberties, Freedom of Expression, Freedom of the Press, as well as Freedom of Movement and Freedom of Association and Assembly. Russia is an upper middle income country, heavily dependent on hydrocarbon and mineral exports. The early 2000s commodities boom funded the country’s recovery from the catastrophic post-Soviet transition to a market economy in the 1990s. The rapid economic growth of the early 2000s provided President Vladimir Putin with sufficient public legitimacy to entrench his hold on power, and his increasingly authoritarian rule has been marked by the concentration of powers in the executive branch, emasculation of institutions of representative democracy, electoral manipulation, and pressure on independent media.
In 2014, Russia responded to the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity by launching a proxy war in the country’s east and illegally annexing Crimea. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Western nations responded with wide-ranging sanctions that seriously damaged the Russian economy, and Russia responded by cracking down on any and all independent civil society activity, antiwar protest, and remaining media freedom.
Russia is the largest country on earth by land area and a complex multi-confessional and multi-ethnic society, composing roughly four broad socioeconomic groups: Westernized and wealthy urban centers, mid-sized towns and cities dependent on state or major industrial employment, isolated and economically precarious villages, and “ethnic republics” that are a mix of the previous two groupings. In President Putin’s two decades in power, these “four Russias” were controlled through what the Kremlin euphemistically referred to as “managed democracy,” which in turn produced an increasingly personalized leadership system and the progressive depoliticization of various parts of Russian society. The persistence of the current political system lies in its ability to provide sufficient economic spoils to loyal elites while alternatively rewarding and disciplining various parts of Russian society through the provision of adequate economic stability, the stoking of nationalist-conservative sentiment, the maintenance of an encompassing propaganda apparatus, and repressive and deadly violence. In recent years, the sticks of repression and more overt control and censorship of the media and internet have crowded out the carrots of economic growth and personal autonomy as the main tools of governance, culminating in the wide-ranging crackdown on activism and even mild dissent in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
While the GSoD Indices data show that Russia’s performance on gender quality has been static (at mid-range) for the past several decades, the increasing repression has likely impacted the state of equality. Despite equality guaranteed by law, studies indicate an increase in gender inequality in recent years due to lack of a clear state policy and propaganda that reinforces patriarchal attitudes, making women more vulnerable to violence, discrimination, and lack of political opportunities.
Russia’s political trajectory in the years to come will be determined by the progress of its war on Ukraine. The country is currently undertaking a defensive authoritarian consolidation, but potential elite fractures and the slowly increasing cost of international sanctions may lead to a chaotic breakdown of the current government system. However, the closing-off of public information spaces makes ascertaining the course of public opinion nearly impossible. All feasible outcomes point towards significant declines across measures of democracy as the country continues to depart further from the rule of law in order to maintain its war effort.
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
May 2024
Civil society crackdown spreads
Restrictions on civil liberties and harsher punishments for a wide variety of real and fictive infractions are growing in both scope and scale as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its third year. The list of 'terrorists and extremists' maintained by the state financial intelligence agency Rosfinmonitoring has been increasing by about 100 names every month and now includes more than 14,500 people and 550 organizations. Those on the list have heavily restricted access to all financial services, usually lose their jobs, and have their freedom of speech further legally restricted. On 6 May, the Duma passed a law that bars those on the separate “foreign agents” registry from running for any political office. Investigative journalists also found that compulsory psychiatric treatment as a punishment in political cases has increased by 500 per cent since the full-scale invasion began.
Sources: Meduza, The Moscow Times, Agentstvo
Gender-based violence and pressure against LGBTQIA+ community increase
Gender-based and domestic violence have become more prevalent since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and cases involving veterans have almost doubled since February 2022. Fifty-nine misdemeanour and 33 felony domestic violence cases were charged in 2020-2021, and 104 and 64 were charged in 2022-2023, respectively. The Rights advocates say official figures are undercounts as cases are rarely reported or investigated in Russia. Felony battery cases have also risen significantly, from 3,750 in 2019 to 13,241 in 2023. Judges usually assign the weakest punishment allowed by law (a fine of RUB 5,000 RUB, or USD 55), and veteran status is frequently cited as a mitigating factor for punishment.
Rights group Coming Out’s annual survey report on the state of LGBTQIA+ rights in Russia similarly found that repression of the community increased significantly from 2022 to 2023. Forty-four per cent of respondents reported experiencing violence or pressure in 2023, up from 30 per cent in 2022. Reports of threats and violence also increased year-on-year, and the percentage of hate crime victims who reported them to police fell to 14 from 20 per cent.
Sources: Verstka Media Coming Out, BBC Russian
March 2024
Vladimir Putin secures fifth term in office
Russia held presidential elections from 15 to 17 March in which President Vladimir Putin secured a fifth term in office against no meaningful opposition. According to the Central Election Commission, Putin secured 87.3 per cent of the vote on 77.44 per cent turnout, up from 77.5 per cent on 67.5 per cent turnout in 2018. There were no women on the ballot and no credible election observers. Boris Nadezhdin, the sole presidential hopeful to oppose Russia’s war on Ukraine, was not permitted to run. Elections were also held in occupied Ukraine, which was condemned by Ukraine, United Nations officials, other world leaders and International IDEA. No women were among the candidates.
Sources: Kommersant, Moscow Times, United Nations, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2)
Indiscriminate response to terror attack
Russian authorities have responded to the Crocus City Hall attack, where 145 people were killed in the worst terror attack in the country in a decade, with a wave of indiscriminate arrests, deportations, and harassment of Central Asian migrants. Police arrested and charged four Tajik nationals with carrying out the attack, and in an unusual move in Russia, released a video of police graphically torturing the men during interrogation on social media. Activists and Russian media have reported on hundreds of swift deportations and thousands of raids on work site and dormitories for Central Asian migrants throughout the country. Roughly four million Central Asian migrants live in Russia. Tajikistan’s state migration agency reported a “surge” of citizens returning to the country to escape persecution, and media reports of Central Asians in Russia hiding in their homes to escape potential violence, arrest or deportation.
Sources; Verstka Media, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, New York Times, Politico
February 2024
Alexei Navalny dies unexpectedly in prison at 47
Alexei Navalny, political prisoner and Russia’s highest profile and most effective political opponent of President Vladimir Putin, died on 16 February in a maximum security prison in the Russian Arctic. He was 47 years old and serving essentially a life sentence on numerous fabricated charges. The causes of Navalny’s death remain unclear, with Russian authorities maintaining he died of ‘natural causes’, but he had previously been hospitalized for malnourishment and former inmates at the same prison colony told Holod Media of systemic torture and an absence of basic medical care. Navalny’s family blamed Russian president Vladimir Putin for his death, as did numerous Western countries and international institutions, directly and indirectly.
Sources: Novaya Gazeta, Meduza, Holod Media
Crackdown on LGBTQIA+ movement spreads to private citizens
Independent Russian media outlets, Meduza and Mediazona, reported that local police around Russia have raided and shut down private parties, LGBTQIA+ bars and clubs, and private BDSM events to enforce the Russian Supreme Court’s ban of the “International LGBT Movement”, an organization that does not exist, on grounds of “extremism.” The reports confirm fears that the Court’s ruling would be used not just to shut down public LGBTQIA+ activism, but as a license to harass and remove LGBTQIA+ people from public life. Incidents have been reported from major cities like St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, as well as in the provincial city of Krasnoyarsk and a town in Karelia.
Sources: Mediazona, Meduza (1), Meduza (2), International IDEA
January 2024
Confiscation a new punishment for “fake news”
Russia’s lower house of parliament approved a law that would allow the state to confiscate the property of anyone convicted of disseminating “fake news” about the Russian army, making public calls for extremism or against the security of the state, calling for sanctions against Russia or Russian citizens, and several other offenses. While vague and broad, the bill is widely understood to be aimed at discouraging and punishing anti-war activism. Although Russian law only allows for nonpunitive confiscation of property that was obtained as a result of the underlying crime, experts say its application is likely to be broader, as the burden of proof in such cases is very low and courts routinely fail to hold police to procedural requirements. The bill was drafted by Russian law enforcement bodies, supported by all but one political faction, has the backing of the Cabinet, and is expected to progress quickly through the remaining procedural steps to become law.
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