Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is an overall low performing country in the South Caucasus, scoring in the bottom 25 per cent globally across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. Over the past five years, it has experienced a significant decline in Social Group Equality. The country’s government and economy have largely been controlled by the family and close associates of Presidents Heydar (1993-2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003-present). A major player in the oil industry since the 19th century, Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on petrochemical exports and industries that allow elites to recycle petrodollars domestically, such as in construction. The country’s defining political issue, dating back to its time as a part of the Soviet Union, has been the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave over which Azerbaijan fought two wars with neighboring Armenia before driving out the Armenian population and reintegrating the region in late 2023.
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War arose out of a movement for Karabakh Armenian independence during perestroika, which escalated into intercommunal violence, pogroms, and attacks on civilians. The war ended in an Azerbaijani defeat, widespread ethnic cleansing and population transfers, tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of over one million Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and the formation of the unrecognized independent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. After years of failed negotiations and frequent exchanges of fire along the line of contact, Azerbaijan took back much of the disputed territory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, before ethnically cleansing the region’s Armenian population and bringing it under Azerbaijani control in 2023.
Although it historically hosted large Russian, Armenian, Talysh, Jewish, and other minorities, wartime population transfers, outmigration, and assimilation have created a modern Azerbaijan that is over 90 per cent ethnic Azerbaijani; though nearly entirely Muslim, religion has historically played little role in Azerbaijani politics, a trend strengthened by the arising of a distinct secular Azerbaijani identity in the early twentieth century and the intentional ‘de-Islamization’ of public life under the Soviet Union. After decades of personalized authoritarian rule, much of the population is depoliticized, although small, but heavily suppressed opposition parties such as the national-conservative Popular Front Party, the pan-Turkist Musavat, and Shi’a Islamist Muslim Unity Movement maintain committed followings.
GSoD Indices data show Azerbaijan’s performance on gender equality at mid-range for the past three decades. Although women have long been enfranchised (since 1918) and equal rights guaranteed by law, violence and gender inequalities that manifest in education, employment, and political participation continue to impact women. Furthermore, the increased visibility of feminist and LGBTQIA+ activists in recent years has been met with a violent backlash.
An influx of petrochemical wealth from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s following the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the discovery of the Shah Deniz gas field enabled the ruling elite to entrench complete political and economic control over the country. Political opposition movements, human rights activists, and independent journalists are frequently jailed and persecuted, and election outcomes are preordained. Numerous bribery, embezzlement, and grand corruption scandals continue to taint the regime.
The reversal of fortunes brought about by the Second Karabakh War hand the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh has not changed. Azerbaijan continues to extract concessions from Armenia and maintains an aggressive posture to distract from domestic issues and dwindling petrochemical reserves. Shifting regional politics may lessen pressure on Azerbaijan to pay lip service to democratic norms, and 2023 and 2024 saw the return of arbitrary prosecutions of journalists, civil society activists and opposition politicians.
Updated: September 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
December 2024
Arrest of journalists signals closing media environment
Azerbaijani police detained seven journalists on 8 December on charges of smuggling “illegal money” into the country, bringing the total number of journalists facing similar charges to 22. The arrests mark the first major crackdown on civil society since presidential elections in January 2024 and the COP climate conference in November. Those events, by attracting international attention, were believed to have precipitated previous rounds of arrests, and this latest round indicates the pressure on civil society and closing of the media space is set to become the new status quo. Six of the journalists are affiliated with high-profile independent media outlet Meydan TV. The new arrests, part of a year-long crackdown, were condemned by international right organizations and as with previous cases, the charges are widely believed to be fabricated.
Sources: Eurasianet, International IDEA, Meydan TV
September 2024
Snap elections return ruling party to power
The ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) of President Ilham Aliyev retained its dominant place in Parliament in a snap parliamentary election held on 1 September. YAP retained 68 of 125 seats, with the remainder going to loyal independent MPs or allied parties. The nominally opposition Republican Alternative Party retained its one seat in Parliament. The election was, like previous elections, boycotted by most opposition parties was and neither free nor fair. The election observation mission from the OSCE concluded the election was conducted “against the background of continued repression” and observed “serious irregularities” including 26 cases of ballot box stuffing. Official voting age population turnout was 63.52 per cent, up from 33.58 per cent in 2020, but official data on voter registration and population is of low credibility. The number of women in parliament increased to 26 from 21.
Sources: Eurasianet, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Republic of Azerbaijan Central Election Commission, IPU Parline
August 2024
Escalating crackdown on civil society
Human rights groups say that in recent months, Azerbaijan has launched the most thorough crackdown on civil society in a decade, in the run up to the 1 September parliamentary election and to host the United Nations Climate Change Conference in November. Activists and journalists have been detained on charges ranging from international currency smuggling to treason, including six journalists from the independent Abzas Media, election observation and rights activist Anar Mammadli, and Bahruz Samadov, a doctoral student at the Charles University in Czechia. The crackdown focuses on media and activists as previous waves of repression have largely eliminated organised independent civil society organisations. Even public figures who were long able to live in the country while criticizing the government, like Altay Goyushov, head of a prominent local non-profit think tank, have proactively left the country to avoid potential imprisonment. Azerbaijani human rights activists now count over 300 political prisoners for the first time since the early 2000s.
Sources: Amnesty International, International Federation of Journalists, Human Rights House, The Economist, Turan News Agency, International IDEA
February 2024
Presidential election less contested than usual
Snap presidential elections returned the usual results of a landslide win for President Ilham Aliyev on 7 February. The campaign was marked by a lack of voter engagement, even by Azerbaijani standards, documented ballot stuffing and other election-day irregularities, and token opposition candidates that publicly encouraged voters to choose Aliyev. President Aliyev did not himself campaign or take part in televised debates, and real opposition parties boycotted as usual but, in a novel development, were either unwilling or unable to mobilize public rallies or shows of discontent, as had typically been the case in previous elections.
Sources: OSCE, OC Media, Eurasianet
Azerbaijan holds snap presidential election
Azerbaijan held snap presidential elections on 7 February in which President Ilham Aliyev was elected to a fifth term in office. Aliyev, who took office in 2003, received 92.12 per cent of the vote with 76 per cent voter turnout, although neither number could be independently verified. No women were among the registered candidates. The European Parliament declined to observe or comment on the elections. The OSCE election observation mission said the election “took place in a restrictive environment, and while preparations were efficiently managed, it was marked by the stifling of critical voices and the absence of political alternatives.”
Sources: OC Media, Turan News Agency, David McAllister MEP
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
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