The most recent Global State of Democracy Indices data reveal that several key phases of the electoral cycle are suffering from declines. Credible Elections scores (which measure EMB independence and capacity, competition, the occurrence of fraud, government intimidation and the fairness of the legal framework) are among the most broadly declining metrics around the world. These declines are compounded by significant downturns in other factors necessary for a strong and legitimate electoral cycle, including indicators of Free Political Parties and respect for Freedom of Expression and Freedom of the Press. Unsurprisingly, popular perceptions of electoral integrity are also suffering. International IDEA’s recent Perceptions of Democracy Survey revealed that in 11 of 19 countries surveyed, less than half of respondents expressed confidence in the previous election in their country (International IDEA 2024g). In the latest round of the World Values Survey, a strikingly low 12.6 per cent of respondents said that they have ‘a great deal’ of confidence in elections (Inglehart et al. 2022).
The most recent Global State of Democracy Indices data reveal that several key phases of the electoral cycle are suffering from declines.
Such mistrust has led to dire outcomes, including the outright rejection of credible results, extreme levels of toxic polarization, targeted attacks against EMBs and violent protests. Such attacks have occurred even without evidence of irregularities or malfeasance, highlighting just how important public perceptions are to electoral integrity, whether the alleged irregularities or malfeasance are real or not. After all, in many ways, public faith in elections and their outcomes is all about perceptions (Akinduro 2024).
Expert assessments of electoral integrity have raised issues such as campaign finance and fair media coverage, both of which have been consistently problematic over time. Popular perceptions of elections, however, are harder to understand, largely because they may be based in part on phenomena that are well outside the electoral sphere. Some new research indicates that people’s negative perceptions of electoral integrity are based in part on problems as broad as political polarization and a general mistrust of government (Kousser 2023).
While it is challenging for actors with decision-making authority (policymakers at the local, national and regional levels), donors and practitioners (EMBs and election assistance providers) to effectively address underlying grievances that are about factors that go well beyond elections, especially in the short term, it is critical to thoroughly understand all the possible drivers of public perceptions in order to design interventions around the issues over which each stakeholder has a degree of control. Such actions serve to build the electorate’s trust in objectively credible electoral processes, which is critical because it is the electorate that ultimately legitimizes an election.
In the long term, targeted responses can help shore up confidence in electoral processes and reinforce the centrality of elections to democratic systems.
This part of the report addresses the issue of popular perceptions of electoral integrity by focusing on the following research questions.
- What are the main drivers of popular perceptions of electoral integrity
- What can be done to prevent, mitigate and respond to threats that can negatively affect perceptions of electoral integrity?
While acknowledging that there are multiple drivers of public distrust of elections, including factors that are not directly related to the administration of electoral processes, this part of the report focuses narrowly on the specific ways in which EMBs (and election observers and electoral support organizations, to a lesser degree) may be able to promote public trust.
The literature review sets the stage, laying out what is known and what is less understood about how experts and the public assess electoral integrity. The following chapter describes a novel data set that contributes a new set of indicators relevant to the study of popular perceptions of electoral integrity. This data set categorizes three kinds of rejections of elections: opposition boycotts, the lack of concessions on the part of losing candidates and parties, and the filing of legal challenges. It then investigates legal challenges closely to lay out a typology of the threats to electoral integrity that actors most frequently raise as the most urgent across various phases of the electoral cycle. The part of the report closes with a set of targeted policy recommendations.