1. Introduction

In an age of radical uncertainty—marked by climate change, migration flows, increasing conflict and transformations driven by artificial intelligence (AI)—democracy’s fate seems somewhat aptly, though sadly, indeterminate (Casas-Zamora 2024). Ongoing conflicts in places such as Gaza, Myanmar, Sudan and Ukraine have already had immense human cost and add uncertainty to assessments of near-term developments in their regions. While climate change long seemed like a problem for the future, it has already had impacts on democracy, including through the heat-related deaths of dozens of poll workers in India’s 2024 election (Mitra 2024). More broadly, subnational or national elections in at least 23 countries were affected by natural hazards between January 2019 and June 2024 (International IDEA 2024j).

In an age of radical uncertainty democracy’s fate seems somewhat aptly, though sadly, indeterminate.

The 2024 elections super-cycle year falls fittingly into this era of uncertainty, with candidates and political parties using potentially transformational policy agendas to court nearly 3 billion voters. In most cases, the inherent (and healthy) uncertainty of elections sparks the kind of debate that drives democracy forward. In other contexts, however, it can motivate more hostile disputes and unrest. Unsurprisingly, unrest and violence related to elections can decrease turnout (van Baalen 2023), a trend that is apparent at the global level (see Figure 1.1) and is worrying for the future of democracy. In 2023 the average level of electoral participation (measured in terms of the percentage of the voting-age population that voted) had declined to 55.7 per cent (from 67.9 per cent in 1975), while the percentage of elections that were followed by riots or protests had risen to 27.6 per cent (from 3.8 per cent in 1975). The ways in which electoral disputes impact public perceptions of the integrity of elections are explored in Part 2 of this report.

In 2023 only 42 countries (of the 173 our data cover) demonstrated a net positive change—the number of factors of democratic performance¹ that showed a significant improvement exceeded the number of factors that showed a decline—a figure that pales in comparison with the 79 countries that suffered more declines than advances (net negative change). Put another way, about one in four countries is making progress, while four out of every nine are worse off. As Figure 1.2 illustrates, the balance of countries making progress versus those falling back has been negative for several years, with the pandemic-affected declines in 2021 standing out as a notably severe point (see the country status in 2023 in the map found in Figure 2.6). This is the eighth consecutive year where the number of countries declining exceeded the number advancing, the longest such stretch in the GSoD data set.

The contexts that showed the sharpest declines—Afghanistan, Belarus, Burkina Faso and Haiti—are unsurprising, as most are marked by severe insecurity or have experienced coups d’état. It is not, however, only countries with already weak institutions that have suffered. In times of radical uncertainty, marked by age-old challenges, such as crime and war, as well as new problems that threaten both our shared reality and our very existence, such as climate change and generative AI, even established democracies are struggling to uphold freedoms. Even so, growing uncertainty has not extinguished hope.

The political world is a complex place, and individual countries can advance in one area while declining in another. Equally, the very democratic institutions that are suffering in some places have become stronger elsewhere. At the global level, Participation and Rights remain relatively stable, even though progress in these areas has been minimal. At the factor level, across the 173 countries, advances have been most common in the categories of Rule of Law, Rights and Representation, especially in factors such as Absence of Corruption, Freedom of Expression, Economic Equality and Access to Justice—though there have been movements in both directions across all these measures in different countries.

In a time of uncertainty, it is these mechanisms of democracy that facilitate the participation and innovation that are key to mitigating the threats of our age.

This year’s report begins with a broad overview of trends at the global level, shining a light on the aspects of democracy that have experienced the most change—positive and negative—in the recent past. Specifically, Part 1 of the report provides a description of what has changed within each category of democratic performance: Representation, Rights, Rule of Law and Participation. It uses country cases to draw out illustrative examples and highlight important patterns. In most cases, we illustrate advances and declines by referencing statistically significant changes that have occurred in comparison with five years earlier. When that is not the case, we provide the interval we are using.

In response to the breadth of change in measures of Credible Elections and the heightened frequency with which elites and the public cast doubt on the accuracy and legitimacy of electoral processes, Part 2 of the report focuses on the question of what matters for electoral integrity in the eyes of the public and how that differs from expert views. This section of the report, which is organized as a policy paper, also introduces a new data set on disputed elections and uses it to explain some of the factors that people and their representatives (such as political parties and civil society) prioritize with regard to credible elections. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations.

This new approach to the flagship publication is International IDEA’s response to the ways in which the 2024 elections super-cycle year has refocused attention on the institutions of representative democracy. Given growing pushback against the democratic model, this analysis provides new information and initial suggestions to renew public trust in electoral processes.

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