3. Conclusion, Part 1

Uncertainty often evokes fear, which prompts leaders and the public to do more to exert control where they can. This pattern is seen in coups d’état in Africa, the severe curtailment of rights in the face of rising violence in Latin America and police brutality against student protesters in the USA. In Europe, an attempt to assassinate the Slovak prime minister rocked a sense of stability long taken for granted. But uncertainty can also give democratic institutions a chance to shine and demonstrate their unique ability to bring order, stability and security. In Senegal, it was those institutions that checked attempts to limit electoral competition, while in Brazil the courts were diligent in sanctioning former President Bolsonaro for his attempts to illegally maintain power.

Uncertainty can also give democratic institutions a chance to shine and demonstrate their unique ability to bring order, stability and security.

It is also democracy’s trademark openness and space for independent, innovative thinking that breeds new ideas and solutions, especially in the face of crisis. Thailand is a case in point. As growing restrictions threaten what had seemed like a democratic opening there, members of the former opposition Move Forward Party (and its successor, the People’s Party) are strategizing new ways to stay active and impactful. Elsewhere, in a landmark judgment, the European Court of Human Rights recently ruled in favour of a group of senior women in Switzerland who alleged that their government had violated their right to respect for private and family life by failing to protect them from climate change. This ruling marks the first time an international court has upheld a human rights–based claim to climate protection (International IDEA 2024h).

Elections, the hallmark of democratic systems, also stand as constant beacons of hope for change. Poland’s 2023 parliamentary elections exemplify this potential, having ushered in a sea change of reforms, especially with regard to the rule of law. Critically, however, the fundamental importance of elections also makes them prime targets for attack. As attempts to tarnish the legitimacy of even the most credible processes increase, it is important to investigate how to prevent, mitigate and address such challenges. It remains to be seen what the remainder of the 2024 elections super-cycle holds, but it is only democracy that offers a promise of new beginnings, even in the most uncertain of times.

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