Global Patterns

In 2022, GSoD data show that countries with net declines in democratic performance again outnumbered those with net advances, as has now been the case for six consecutive years, with 2021 the worst year on record.[2] This six-year pattern of decline is the longest of this kind since our records began in 1975. Half of the countries have suffered a decline in at least one indicator of democratic performance. More broadly, the intensity of democratic gains that had seemed so promising around the turn of the century has dulled over the past two decades. While the current trend is alarming, the monumental gains made from the mid-1970s to the early 2010s have not been erased by the recent decline and the world remains almost as democratic today as it ever has been. The issue is how to contain and reverse the recent declines.

This shift is illustrated in Figure 1.1, with vertical bars showing that global net improvements have not been seen since 2016.

Figure 1.2 shows the countries that experienced the greatest number of declines over the last five years (those with declines in more than five factors). These are:

• in Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mauritius and Tunisia;
• in Europe: Belarus;
• in the Americas: El Salvador and Nicaragua; and
• in Asia and the Pacific: Afghanistan and Myanmar.

Figure 1.3 shows the countries that experienced the greatest number of advances (those with advances in more than five factors). These are:

• in Africa: Ethiopia;
• in Europe: Armenia and Moldova;
• in Asia and the Pacific: Malaysia and Maldives.

Notably, however, some of these advances have taken place amid a challenging broader context.

These broad declines, found in every region of the world, have been largely driven by the significant weakening of formal CIs, notably elections, legislatures and judiciaries. The deterioration in these institutions is a blow to the heart of democracy. It limits, respectively, people’s ability to ‘throw the rascals out’, elected representatives’ power to ensure that the executive does not step out of bounds, and judges’ duty to uphold the law in fair and equal ways.

Over the same period from 2017, respect for core democratic rights has weakened, with declines noted in Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Assembly and Association, and Personal Integrity and Security. Figure 1.5 illustrates these changes over the last five years.

This particular combination of factors in decline is worrying, portending a bleak outlook of restrictive environments in which people do not have the freedom to gather, interact, debate and discuss with each other. Over time, such circumstances could wear down the ties that bind people together, potentially having a greater impact on levels of civic engagement in the future, as people are less willing to risk their security to be active members of their societies. Ultimately, such an environment could harm the innovation that is borne of deliberation, exchange and diversity.

This weakened democratic foundation, however, has not been left to crumble. In many cases, other CIs have stepped in. For example, courts and fourth-branch institutions—EMBs, anti-corruption agencies, ombuds offices, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and national human rights institutions—have both checked the concentration of power and helped ensure that the people remain in control of the metaphorical bike handles, despite the uneven terrain.

The work done by CIs has prompted limited improvement in some countries under the Absence of Corruption factor, where the number of significant advances was double the number of significant declines at the country level. Africa leads with the largest number of country-level advances in this area, followed closely by Asia and the Pacific, and Europe.

These limited gains do not diminish the continuing challenges involved in combating the global scourge of corruption, nor are they a promise of a more systematic and long-term trend of improvement. In many cases, positive change was observed in countries where the overall level of corruption continued to be high when compared with high-performing countries. It is important to note that the gains in this area must be understood as limited—initial signals of positive change that will need substantial support to maintain. In some cases, they may point to an opportunity to identify and act on new lessons learned.

Finally, public participation remains the brightest hope for the future of democracy. Despite no new aggregate advances in the category Participation, there is a continued resilience in people’s commitment to making their voices heard, even in the face of physical danger and serious political instability.

Movement in this regard is a testament to democracy’s unique capacity for change. Combined with the growing relevance of informal and fourth-branch institutions around the world, the centre of gravity for democracy, which has always been in the balance of powers between the three main branches of government, may be shifting slightly towards a locus of activity in the courts and independent and regulatory bodies.

Going forward, this particular combination of institutions could become a new core set of democratic institutions.

Representation is an aggregate measure of the credibility of electoral processes, the effectiveness of legislatures and the quality of local democratic representation.

In the GSoD Indices, Representation is an aggregate measure of the credibility of electoral processes (including elections that are free from irregularities, political parties that are free to operate, the inclusiveness of the right to vote and the extent to which national offices are filled by elected individuals), the effectiveness of legislatures and the quality of local democratic representation.

As the wave of democracy that swept aside authoritarian regimes in the late 20th/early 21st century recedes, it leaves behind a worn and crumbling foundation. Over the last five years, the world has witnessed the most widespread, significant declines in two of the bedrocks of democratic governance: Credible Elections and Effective Parliaments (Figure 1.6).

In many contexts, electoral processes have been marked by unequal playing fields, the exclusion of marginalized groups, weakened EMBs, and voting and result-counting irregularities. These issues erode the power of elections to fulfil their primary role as a check on unpopular governments that are not responsive to their people’s needs. Such problems are compounded by weak parliaments that struggle to contain executive overreach and are therefore unable to effectively halt actions that dismantle democratic systems. Over the last five years, GSoD data have revealed declines in Representation in every region. Figure 1.7 shows related declines between 2021 and 2022.

Strong and publicly legitimate electoral processes do remain, however. In 2022, two European countries moved into the list of top 20 performers in Representation: Switzerland and Czechia (Figure 1.8).

Malaysia (ranked at 92), Latvia (44) and Kenya (89) experienced the largest upward movements in the Representation rankings, with Malaysia now in the top 100 and Latvia newly in the top 50. Figures 1.7 and 1.9 show countries that experienced the largest changes in Representation over the past year.

Declines and advances in Credible Elections

A diverse list of countries have been affected by declines, with the following five experiencing the largest falls in the Representation rankings over the past year: Burkina Faso (ranked at 157), Tunisia (88), Guinea-Bissau (113), Portugal (22) and Costa Rica (13). In Portugal, the late adoption of changes to the electoral law in 2021 and 2022 contributed to the deterioration of scores (Luis 2021; OSCE/ODIHR 2022). Portugal lost its position among the world’s top 10 in Representation (although it remains a high-performing country). In Costa Rica, which is also a high-performing country, analysts noted attacks on the media and limited access to information in the context of the 2022 election (Álvarez 2023). Allegations of illegal election financing by President Rodrigo Chaves’ campaign have led to an investigation by the country’s Congress (Reuters 2022).

In other countries, declines were due to more extreme circumstances. Two successful coups and an additional coup attempt in 2022 precipitated Burkina Faso’s steep slide in rankings (AfricaNews 2023). Similarly, the recent coups in Niger and Gabon will significantly lower their Representation scores in the next round of data.

There have also been worrying problems in countries that are ranked in the mid- range in Representation. Guinea-Bissau (113), Mauritius (72) and Tunisia (88) are among the mid-range performers that saw the greatest fall in ranking, but many others also experienced significant declines. In Tunisia, the 2022 parliamentary elections followed significant changes in the electoral system. The polls were characterized by bans on political parties, which were not permitted to field or fund candidates. Multiple opposition parties boycotted the election, and turnout in the first round was 11 per cent, the second-lowest in the world since 1945 (Grewal 2022; International IDEA n.d.; Al-Ali 2022). In a context marked by a lack of meaningful competition and without the participation of the majority of the country’s voters, the Tunisian election could not reflect people’s assessments of governmental performance. The 2024 elections, however, offer an opportunity for the return to some level of democratic equilibrium.

Mauritius also experienced declines over this period, especially in Credible Elections and Effective Parliament, with the decrease in the latter particularly large. Some of this decline can be traced to the 2019 elections, which some analysts have characterized as a turning point for the country, due to problems at and beyond the polling station (Darga and Peeraullee 2021). It is important to note, however, that the 2019 elections represent an outlier in a long history of credible democratic elections in Mauritius and the country remains mid-range performing in Representation. The 2019 elections also sparked an interest in electoral reforms and there is at least one reform bill under consideration, although approval remains controversial (Mauritius National Assembly). Given that people’s confidence in democratic institutions and support for democracy remains strong, the 2024 elections offer an opportunity for a rebound (Stuurman and Peeraullee 2021).

Declines and advances in Effective Parliament

Beyond elections, representative democracy also depends in fundamental ways on legislatures. They are, in many contexts, the first line of defence against executive overreach. It is here where elected political parties and representatives can, if the need arises, investigate and sanction the executive branch. The legislative branch is also where elected representatives work to reflect people’s needs in laws and system design.

Over the last five years, a number of parliaments have struggled to exercise their oversight functions, and significant declines have been seen in Effective Parliament in countries across the political spectrum. Among those that experienced the largest declines in ranking, three countries were marked by coups or coup attempts and other suspensions of political institutions (low-performing Burkina Faso and Guinea-Bissau, and mid-range performing Tunisia).

These were the extremes but, elsewhere, some countries that are high-performing (such as Japan and Slovenia) and mid-range performing (such as Argentina, Greece, Iraq, Nepal and Nigeria) have also seen declines over the last five years. In Nigeria, for example, the legislature has struggled with capacity and political will (Staddon 2017). It has also been challenged in exercising executive oversight, demonstrating its secondary status through actions such as granting loans to administrations without following the regulations for doing so (Premium Times Nigeria 2023).

In contrast, the European region leads in hopeful bright spots, home to 5 of the 12 countries that have experienced advances in Effective Parliament over the last five years. High-performing Bulgaria, Czechia and Slovakia and mid-range performing Armenia and Moldova have all seen improvements. In Armenia, for example, parliament’s questioning of the prime minister over the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 was a sign that initial gains may be continuing, although it is unclear if it will become a long-term trend (JAM News 2023).

Rights is an aggregate measure of a fair legal system, respect for civil liberties, the extent to which the material and social supports of democracy are available, and the degree to which political and social equality between social groups and genders is realized.

In the GSoD Indices, Rights is an aggregate measure of a fair legal system, respect for civil liberties, the extent to which the material and social supports of democracy are available, and the degree to which political and social equality between social groups and genders is realized.

Public control over decision making is meaningless without equality in the exercise of that control. As the world prepares to mark the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the overall pattern of decline in the GSoD Indices’ measures of respect for human rights is a stark reminder of how vulnerable democracies can be (Figure 1.10). In 2022, there were no countries showing significant improvement in the protection and exercise of rights, as demonstrated by no single country experiencing an advance in the Rights category when compared with its own performance in 2017.

Instead, declines have become the norm. While some deterioration was due to extreme circumstances, such as coups and state collapse, drops in the Rights rankings also occurred for less severe reasons. Figure 1.11 lists the countries with the largest negative movements.

There was little movement within the top 20 performers in Rights over the past year. Czechia is newly in the top 10, having moved one place up, and Lithuania is newly in the top 20, having moved up 5 positions in the ranking. Other notable improvements were seen for Vanuatu, now in the top 50 (ranked at 43), and Slovenia (24). Figures 1.12 and 1.13 show the list of the top 20 performers and the list of the countries that experienced the greatest improvements over the past year.

Declines in Civil Liberties

Civil liberties, which shape people’s daily experiences of public life, are at the heart of democracy. These human rights grease the gears of democratic systems by empowering people to act as the ultimate check on power. Civil liberties equip people to find the information they need to evaluate their governments, to voice their views and to pursue the kinds of lives they wish to lead.

Over the last five years, global average performance in Civil Liberties has remained stable in the mid-range, but notable declines in Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Association and Assembly, Freedom of the Press have affected every region of the world. Access to Justice has also been similarly impacted.

Examples include media restrictions in many different countries across the world, even those showing high performance overall. Two examples of countries that are mid-range performing in Freedom of the Press are: Bangladesh, where authorities arrested relatives of expatriate journalists who were critical of the government; and South Korea, which has been criticized for inhibiting access to outlets seen to be critical of the president (RSF 2022; CIVICUS 2022).

The Philippines, which is also mid-range performing in Freedom of the Press and Freedom of Expression, continues to struggle. Despite recent court victories for Nobel laureate and Rappler CEO Maria Ressa, the independent digital media company is still fighting an order that seeks to shut it down (ICJ 2022). This occurs in a broader context of repression, recently marked by the murder of veteran journalist Percy Lapid, known for his outspoken criticism of human rights abuses and corruption and ongoing violations of press freedom (Palatino 2022; NUJP 2022).

There were 187 Internet shutdowns in 35 countries in 2022, with India topping the list for the fifth consecutive year (Access Now 2022). Mid-range performing India’s declines in Freedom of Expression and Freedom of Association and Assembly goes beyond Internet shutdowns, exemplified by the government’s restriction of free expression and peaceful assembly in Jammu and Kashmir (International IDEA 2023; Raj 2022). The government has arbitrarily detained journalists there and barred a Pulitzer prize-winning journalist from leaving the country to receive her prize; the journalist was not given a reason for the government’s action (CPJ 2022); Hassan 2022).

In the Americas, experts describe countries such as mid-range performing (in Freedom of the Press) Ecuador, Haiti and Mexico as among the world’s most dangerous for journalists (RSF 2023). More than half of all the murders of journalists in the world occurred in three countries, two of them in Latin America and the Caribbean (Haiti and Mexico, and Ukraine). Mexico stood out for being the site of 13 murders of journalists in 2022, the highest ever in a single year (Dunham 2023).

Surveillance scandals targeting media and opposition politicians across Europe—in countries that are both mid-range performing (Hungary and Poland) and high-performing (Spain and Greece) in the Civil Liberties factor—sparked a European Parliament recommendation to temporarily ban the sale, acquisition and use of spyware until certain conditions have been met (Killeen 2023). In Greece, the Hellenic Authority for Communication Security and Privacy has acted as an important CI, helping to uncover what happened and leading investigations into the surveillance scandal (Stamouli 2023). These issues are reflected in the GSoD rankings for Rights. In 2022, South Korea (ranked at 35) remained in the top 50 but fell three places, while India (104) also dropped by three spots. In 2022, the largest falls were in Sri Lanka (88), Suriname (57), Jordan (100), Haiti (160), Botswana (64), Bhutan (63), Mali (120), El Salvador (137) and Brazil (84). Romania (51) and Suriname (57) fell out of the top 50 ranking in Rights between 2021 and 2022.

Advances in Civil Liberties and Social Group Equality

At the same time, there have been some encouraging developments. Vanuatu (ranked at 43), Slovenia (24) and Honduras (103) experienced the largest increases in ranking in Rights between 2021 and 2022. In Slovenia, the public voted in reforms to strengthen the country’s independent broadcaster, a victory made possible by protests and strikes by journalists, some of which were supported by the public (CIVICUS 2022b; International IDEA 2022a).

There were several instances in which rights related to gender and sexuality were expanded in countries that perform at varying levels in Social Group Equality around the world. In 2022, some highlights include the decriminalization of gay sex in mid-range performing Singapore (although full marriage equality remains blocked), and in three Caribbean countries (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, and Saint Kitts and Nevis). Mid-range performing Mexico legalized same-sex marriage; mid-range performing India approved equal abortion access; easier access to abortion care was enabled in high-performing Finland; and sweeping gender equality reforms took place in mid-range performing Spain (AFP 2022; CIVICUS 2022d; AP 2022; Rajagopal 2022; Finnish Government; OHCHR 2023).

CI, such as parliaments and courts, have played critical roles in these cases, passing and enforcing laws that expand rights for everyone. They were helped by the efforts of civil society groups, who have utilized public events and public interest litigation to mobilize support and enforce respect for equal rights (CIVICUS 2022).

Rule of Law includes assessments of the independence of the judiciary, the extent to which the public administrators use their offices for personal gain, how predictable enforcement of the law is, and the degree to which people are free from political violence.

In the GSoD Indices, Rule of Law is a new aggregate measure introduced this year (with comparisons from 2021). It includes assessments of the independence of the judiciary from government influence, the extent to which the public administrators use their offices for personal gain, how predictable enforcement of the law is, and the degree to which people are free from political violence.

In 2022, at the global level, Rule of Law saw performance in the mid-range, but all regions of the world have experienced significant declines over the last five years. Although European countries dominate the top of the Rule of Law rankings (Figure 1.15), it is important to note relative declines. Europe is the region with the highest number of countries seeing a significant downward shift in performance. Austria and Hungary were among the countries that experienced the greatest declines in ranking over the past year (Figure 1.14).

Overall in the rankings, the most dramatic falls took place in Tunisia (ranked at 81 after a fall of 27 places), Mauritius (88) and Afghanistan (172).

On a more positive note, notable upward movements were seen in Zambia (ranked at 78 after a rise of 21 points), Colombia (73) and Moldova (56). Taiwan (15) moved up six places to reach the top 20 in Rule of Law, and Denmark moved up seven places to be ranked first in this category in 2022. Figures 1.15 and 1.16 show these patterns.

Declines in Judicial Independence

Powerful political and economic interests weight the scales in ways that make it difficult for people to be treated equally before the law and for courts to act as meaningful checks on excessive government power. This is compounded by public administrators who use their offices for personal gain, further tilting the balance of power away from the people. GSoD Indices’ data show notable declines in Judicial Independence in every region of the world, affecting a wide and diverse array of countries, including even high performers (Canada) and mid-range performers (Benin, Greece, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritius, Palestine, Poland and Tunisia) (Figure 1.17).

In Poland, new laws that have increased the government’s role in the nomination of judges for the country’s courts sparked widespread criticism and a serious disagreement with the European Union. In what appears to be a continuing trend, three senior judges on the Supreme Court resigned in protest in May 2023 (Łukaszewicz 2023).

Greek declines have been partially attributed to concerns that the country’s Prosecutor of the Supreme Court attempted to block an audit related to a spyware scandal (Michalopoulos 2023).

The former United Nations Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers expressed grave concerns about how reforms enabled the Tunisian president to interfere with the appointment, promotion and discipline of judges (OHCHR 2022).

A lack of judicial independence can result in unpredictable enforcement of the law, creating instability and uncertainty. Over the last five years, there have been significant falls in predictable enforcement of the law in nearly all regions of the world. Europe has seen the largest number of such declines, with affected countries including the high-performing Netherlands and United Kingdom, and mid-range performing Austria, Hungary and Portugal. Low-performing Belarus has also continued to decline.

The Group of States against Corruption (GRECO), in its latest report on Austria, raised concerns about oversight of the activities of ministers and state secretaries outside of government. GRECO advised that significant strengthening of the supervisory, advisory and enforcement systems of the laws on this issue was required (GRECO 2023).

Partly as a result of a childcare benefits scandal in the Netherlands, in which the Dutch Tax and Customs Administration used discriminatory algorithms to falsely accuse thousands of parents of fraud in their applications for benefits, the government began considering reforms that would allow courts to rule on the constitutionality of laws passed by parliament (Dutch News 2022). In both the Austrian and Dutch cases, expert recommendations have focused on the need to build up formal CIs, which include required action by the legislature and the courts.

Limited success in the fight against corruption

While there is no significant change in the aggregated scores for Absence of Corruption at the global or regional levels, there have been cases of improvement at the country level in all regions. Most of the changes have been driven by improvements in the assessment of executive bribery and embezzlement, public sector theft and corrupt exchanges within the public sector.

Africa leads, with the largest number of country-level advances, followed closely by Asia and the Pacific, and Europe. In Zambia, which experienced the most dramatic positive shift in the Rule of Law rankings (reaching 78 after an increase of 21 places), notable milestones include the government’s cancellation of suspicious public contracts and increased anti-corruption investigations (Gonzales 2022; IMF 2023); Short 2023). Moldova (56) also moved up in the Rule of Law rankings, partly as a result of its anti-corruption efforts, which include a new court focused specifically on this issue (OSCE PA 2022; Moldpres 2023). Many of these advances have been due to political will in the executive and in the legislature, demonstrating how these fundamental CIs can act together to create change.

Independent oversight CIs have also been powerful in the fight against corruption. Malaysia stands out for the work of its vigilant anti-corruption commission, while progress in Romania is due in part to a new national anti-corruption strategy and investigations of high-level corruption, and in the Dominican Republic to the strength of its anti-corruption agencies (Strangio 2023; European Commission 2022; Dominican Today).

These limited gains do not diminish the continuing challenges involved in combating the significant, global scourge of corruption, nor are they a promise of a more systematic and long-term trend of improvements. In many cases, positive change was observed in countries where the overall level of corruption continued to be high, compared with other countries that show high performance in Absence of Corruption. Gains in this area must be understood as limited, initial signals of positive change that will need substantial support to maintain. In some cases, they do point to an opportunity to identify and act on new lessons learned.

Declines and advances in Personal Integrity and Security

People’s experiences of democracy are also affected by their basic security and whether they can safely go about their daily lives. This is a concern around the world, but the regions with the greatest number of countries showing declines over the last five years are the Americas, Africa and Europe.

In the Americas, a varied mix of countries—including low-performing Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, as well as mid-range performing Brazil and high-performing Uruguay—have experienced notable falls in measures of personal security. Across the region, the last five years have witnessed increasing rates of crime and violence, prompting some leaders to use the military to try and quell the insecurity. This pattern has been observed in mid-performing countries as diverse as Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico and Peru. Given the history of military involvement in the region’s politics, this trend is worrying.

Another concern in the Americas region relates to the significant rise in gun violence in the United States, where there were 646 mass shootings in 2022. This number is 86 per cent more than five years ago, in 2017, when the number was 348 (GVA 2023).

In some places, of course, security and safety have improved. Angola’s improvements have allowed it to move from low to mid-range performing in the last five years, and increases in Maldives and The Gambia have also been significant.

Participation is an aggregate measure of how involved citizens are in democratic expression during and between elections.

It includes assessments of the context within which civil society operates, the strength of interest groups, the degree to which people are engaged with associations and trade unions, and voter turnout in national elections.

The hope for the future of democracy remains firmly in the realm of public participation, and the GSoD rankings for Participation bring some major positives in this area. The rankings are striking for their dynamism and diversity. While global trends do not show large shifts, some of the notable country-level developments could indicate a more long-term upward movement in this category overall.

Unlike in other categories, many countries have experienced relatively large shifts in position in the rankings for Participation over the past year (see Figure 1.19 and 1.20). Zambia (ranked at 46) and Kenya (39) experienced the biggest jumps, moving up 40 and 24 places, respectively. Tunisia (jointly ranked with Serbia at 95), Burkina Faso (43) and Malawi (58) experienced the largest falls in ranking over the past year, sliding down 35, 28 and 26 places, respectively. Moreover, the list of the top 20 countries in the world is the most diverse of all categories, as it includes two African countries—Mauritius (19) and Sierra Leone (20)—in 2022. Figures 1.18, 1.19 and 1.20 show these patterns.

Organs that facilitate public participation are key to thriving democracies, because they enable people to take ownership of the institutions that shape their political and social lives, and ensure that community-level priorities are channelled upwards to various government bodies. In many cases, people self-organize, taking to the streets, developing petitions or meeting in local spaces to voice their concerns and seek responses from their governments. The data show that it is not uncommon for participation to persist even in settings that are challenged in multiple and serious ways.

In Zambia, civil society helped to establish a public register of mining interests, which strengthens accountability by disclosing who stands to benefit from owning corporate assets. In the long run, such systems can help stem corruption and illicit financing, among other things (Open Ownership 2021; Tonn 2023). At the same time, it is important to remember that such progress takes place in a context that many have described as a stalled transition, marked by the continuation of serious human rights violations in spite of the new government’s promises to the contrary (Amnesty International 2021; HRW 2023).

In Kenya, the 2022 election demonstrated the impact of decades’ worth of civil society efforts to institutionalize important reforms, particularly through public interest litigation that has focused on bringing electoral laws in line with the Constitution (Nantulya 2022).

In 2023, there were some powerful and significant examples of popular participation across the globe. They include:

• the Thai opposition’s popular mobilization and resulting electoral victory;
• resistance committees in Sudan;
• protests against proposed changes to the judiciary in Israel;
• public demonstrations against the Mexican Government’s proposals to change the electoral law and weaken the EMB;
• Indian protests against a court decision that could expand who is considered part of a ‘scheduled tribe’ (which tend to be among the most socio-economically disadvantaged groups of people); and
• protests in Greece against perceived underinvestment in the railway network (after a fatal train crash).

Certainly, the existence of protest alone is not enough to protect or strengthen democracy. This is especially the case when public demonstrations include violence (whether perpetrated by the authorities or protesters), as the focus can easily shift from the issue at the root of the protests to the violence itself.

The 2022 data also revealed interesting changes in mid-range performing countries that do not normally receive attention for improving levels of public participation. Two countries showed advances in measures of public engagement with political and non-political associations and trade unions: Papua New Guinea and The Gambia. Also, six countries in Africa, the Americas, and Asia and the Pacific showed improvements in measures of a supportive environment for civil society organizations (CSOs): the high-performing Dominican Republic, mid-performing Ethiopia, Fiji, Maldives and Zambia, as well as low-performing Sudan.[3]

Notably, some of these countries have also shown broader gains that go beyond the space for civil society organizations to include people’s rights to voice opinions and organize. Compared with five years ago, four countries have experienced advances in both the Civil Society and the Freedom of Association and Assembly factors. These are: Ethiopia, Maldives, Zambia and low-performing Sudan. Two of these—Ethiopia and Maldives—have seen significant advances in another related factor, Freedom of Expression, as well. Such advances suggest an important opening up of opportunities and support for public participation.

In Ethiopia, gains were due in part to rules that allowed civil society groups to form and serve their communities more easily, and to the removal of a restriction on foreign funding (UNESCO 2020). These advances occurred, however, during conflict that has had a negative impact on civic space, including new regulations that permitted the government to monitor civil society ‘in any way’ it deemed appropriate (Tsegaye 2021). As these examples show, the gains are important but they take place in what continues to be a challenging environment for civic activity overall.

Declines in Civil Society and Civic Engagement

Countries where there have been noteworthy deteriorations in the environment for civil society to operate include five low performers (Afghanistan, El Salvador, Guatemala, Myanmar and Nicaragua) and three mid-range performers (Benin, Sri Lanka and Tunisia).

In Benin, civil society groups’ submission to the UN’s Universal Periodic Review[4] described how the country’s Digital Code, introduced to regulate digital activities, has been used to target civil society, journalists and human rights defenders, resulting in an environment of fear over speaking out. The submission also raised concerns about discriminatory provisions for ‘foreign associations’ and the duration of registration processes for civil society (CIVICUS et al. 2022).

Civic space for participation has also contracted in El Salvador, where a ‘state of exception’ has restricted people’s freedom of expression, and freedom of assembly and association, and has exposed civil society to increased risk of attacks (CIVICUS 2022).

The overall global picture of significant positive and negative shifts is shown in Figure 1.21.

Overall, the resilience of Civic Engagement and people’s continuing commitment to making their voices heard, even as the space for doing so becomes narrower, is a testament to democracy’s unique capacity to enable change.

In many cases, however, gains have been made in contexts that are sharply challenging overall, illustrating the importance of continued support to democratic institutions, even where some successes are apparent. Moreover, people’s continuing commitment to engagement does not reduce the threat posed by leaders’ ongoing efforts to limit dissent and silence criticism.

Support for civil society groups is critical. Equally important is concerted pressure on governments to ensure that they fully respect freedom of expression, and freedom of association and assembly. These rights underpin everyone’s ability to participate. Much will depend on how people and groups are able to withstand government pressure and even threats, but democracy’s shape-shifting gifts will reinforce its relevance and efficacy in the years ahead.