Americas
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Key trends in the second half of 2024 included improvements in Access to Justice. However, setbacks in Rights and the Rule of Law were notable. Three countries held elections: Uruguay and the United States saw party turnover, while the elections in Venezuela have been widely characterized as fraudulent.
Areas to watch in early 2025 include measures in some countries to weaken checks on government and stifle criticism. The arrival of a new administration in the United State of America will also be a key focus.
Emerging patterns
Representation
The establishment of a Provisional Electoral Council in Haiti was a potentially positive step toward elections in a context of sustained breakdown in institutions. However, changes in the membership of the Transitional Presidential Council lessened stability amidst the security crisis marked by severe gang violence and a devastating humanitarian situation.
Elsewhere, events affecting Representation were mixed. In Bolivia, the Legislature was able to come to a decision to set a date for overdue judicial elections, following a year-long standstill, enabling the partial replacement of judicial office-holders in December. In Canada, a Conservative party filibuster of an own motion related to a question of privilege halted the business of the House of Commons. In Argentina, parliamentary oversight of executive power has waned with the approval of the “Ley Bases”, that granted the president special powers to legislate by decree on certain matters, allowing him to bypass ordinary congressional procedures.
Rights
Improvements in Access to Justice have been encouraging, though the region experienced some setbacks as well. Brazil improved access to truth and transitional justice by restoring the Special Commission on Political Deaths and Disappearances, and recognizing previously unacknowledged groups as victims of the military dictatorship. A conviction in the murder of prominent councilwoman Marielle Franco, and an agreement with the mining company responsible for a catastrophic dam breach in 2015 that resulted in deaths, displacements and environmental damage to ensure reparations to victims, are further signals of progress. In Canada, a Supreme Court ruling that ordered compensation for longstanding underpayments of treaty-obligated annuities to Anishinaabe First Nations was a step towards accountability for violations of Indigenous rights. Rulings by domestic and international courts have also reaffirmed states’ responsibility to ensure the rights of Indigenous and ethnic minorities in Colombia and Ecuador.
In Peru, notable developments include a UN treaty body’s recommendation that the government make reparations for forced sterilizations that particularly impacted rural and Indigenous women in the 1990s. However, tensions have emerged in the country between the courts and parliament regarding how to address historic crimes, with a judge disapplying a statute of limitations recently approved by Congress due to its incompatibility with Peruvian and international law.
Another setback for Access to Justice took place in Mexico, where a ‘constitutional supremacy’ amendment banned any judicial review of constitutional changes, limiting people’s ability to defend their rights in courts.
Weakened Freedom of Expression has been a recent feature in some countries such as Argentina, where changes to legislation have imposed burdensome requirements for information access requests, and Mexico, where Congress passed constitutional amendments to abolish autonomous bodies, including a freedom of information watchdog. Freedom of Expression further deteriorated in Venezuela, where legislation to criminalize support of international sanctions was passed, and in Nicaragua, a country where vague legislation was enacted to criminalize critical speech in social media.
Finally, immigration policy has tightened in the Dominican Republic and in Chile, with a detrimental effect on Social Group Equality. However, the latter government has also announced that it is studying a plan to regularize undocumented immigrants.
Rule of Law
The weakening of accountability and checks on government was a notable trend in this period. In the United States, a Supreme Court ruling that former presidents enjoy broad immunity has diluted equality in legal accountability. In Mexico, despite experts’ warnings of its negative impact to judicial independence, the entry into force of a controversial reform to the judiciary that will introduce popular elections for all judgeships, has upended the justice system.
Personal Integrity and Security remains a challenge. In the United States, now-President Donald Trump was the target of two attempted assassinations. In Bolivia, former president Evo Morales was involved in a violent encounter in which his vehicle was attacked with gunfire. A longstanding, broader downturn in security has led some leaders to enact harsher measures to combat crime and gang violence, as has been the case recently in Panama, Chile and Trinidad and Tobago.
Participation
In the second half of the 2024 election super-cycle, three countries went to the polls: Venezuela, Uruguay and the United States. The average voter turnout was approximately 70.8 per cent (Uruguay has compulsory voting). In the United States and Uruguay, where legislative elections took place, the average female representation in the lower house slightly improved. Both the US and Uruguayan elections resulted in party turnover. The election in Venezuela was decried for its lack of transparency and credibility, with some domestic and international observers describing it as fraudulent. Some countries and stakeholders have recognized the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, as the elected president.
The repression of anti-Maduro protests, the closure of 1500 NGOs and the upcoming constitutional amendments that sanction ‘treason’ with the deprivation of nationality in Nicaragua, and the introduction of excessive and burdensome controls on NGOs in Paraguay are further examples of shrinking civic space in the region.
It will be important to watch the steps taken in Haiti towards holding long-overdue elections. In Trinidad and Tobago a constitutional reform process is underway that could impact key institutions; similarly, Jamaica’s constitutional reform process has the potential to encourage ‘decolonial constitutionalism’ elsewhere in the subregion.
Civil liberties will also be key to assessing the state of democracy in the region. In Argentina, the creation of a new AI unit to ‘predict future crimes’ has raised concerns for its impacts on the rights of the accused. In the United States, a draft anti-terror bill that could strip non-profits from their tax-exempt status, without all necessary due process guarantees, could have a significant impact on freedom of expression and impact participation because of its potential to damage the reputation and funding of CSOs unjustly accused of supporting terrorism.
Measures to safeguard the justice system from external influence and ensure procedural transparency will be key for Rule of Law in the region. A recent corruption scandal in Chile revealed vulnerabilities through which powerful actors have abused the judicial system, bringing attention to the need to strengthen transparency in the appointment of judges. Further, measures to guarantee transparency throughout the new judicial electoral processes in Mexico will be key to protecting judicial independence.
Elections will be held in February in Ecuador, and later in the year in Chile, Bolivia, Honduras, Jamaica and Guyana.
What we are reading
Margaret Satterthwaite, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, recently issued a report on ‘Safeguarding the independence of judicial systems in the face of contemporary challenges to democracy’. The report lays out how certain governments and politicians target judicial independence and institutions, delving into the techniques used to weaken judicial independence, such as exercising undue influence, direct interference or attacks (including derogatory rhetoric), or even the capturing of judicial institutions.
Given recent developments in the region, where several leaders have enacted legislation or adopted measures targeting judicial independence, the report is a timely reading. It also presents key recommendations, including on building resilience, appointment processes, and engagement with communities. Measures to investigate threats, violence and acts of coercion or influence against judges and other actors of the justice system are further recommended to curb growing efforts against judicial independence.
Factors of Democratic Performance
Scores represent regional averages in 2023.
*Data represents an average of the entire region
Number of events reported
See the most frequently impacted categories of democratic performance over the last six months
Most impacted factors of democracy
Predictable Enforcement |
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19x |
Political Equality |
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14x |
Civil Liberties |
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13x |
Critical Events
- Ecuador - December 2024 | Constitutional Court issues landmark ruling for victims of modern slavery
- Brazil - November 2024 | Former President Bolsonaro and allies formally accused of plotting a coup
- Bolivia - October 2024 | Evo Morales accuses government of assassination attempt
- Mexico - September 2024 | Judicial reform ushers in new era of popularly elected judges
- Brazil - August 2024 | Social media platform X is blocked in Brazil
- Peru - July 2024 | Congress passes statute of limitations on crimes against humanity
Specially Tagged Events
Democracy Notes
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