Yemen
The Republic of Yemen is a state on the Arabian Peninsula exhibiting low performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. Since 2014, the country has been embroiled in an intractable, internationalized civil war between the Houthis and the government. Originally a militant movement derived from the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam, the Houthis —also known as Ansar Allah— have expanded beyond their Zaidi revivalist roots to become a political and military force, emerging as a significant opposition to the government over the past decade. The conflict emanating from these two actors has plunged Yemen into a dire humanitarian crisis that has extended to the presence of numerous diseases at epidemic rates, widespread poverty, acute malnutrition, fuel shortages, and a lack of reliable access to drinking water and sanitation.
Religious and cultural differences between the North and South have long been a key driving force of Yemeni politics. Historically, the two regions were controlled by different imperial powers (the British in the South and the Ottomans in the North). After unification of the North and South in 1990, the country was ruled by President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s patronage-based regime until Arab Spring mass protests forced him out of power in 2012. A transitional government was appointed in a Gulf Cooperation Council and UN led process to avert civil war but excluded key protest actors, including the young people who initiated the protests, the Houthis and the Southern Movement, a separatist group. Two years later, the country descended into the current civil war when the Houthis took control of the capital, Sana’a, rejecting the transitional government’s proposal to divide the North (where the Houthis originate) as part of a new federal state.
Nonetheless, the origins of the conflict are far deeper; in some ways it may be conceived of as an extension of Yemen’s first civil war (1962-1968) that was fought between a conservative Zaidi tribal society from the northern highlands —led by al-Houthi— and a mostly-secular republic steered by a foreign-educated and revolutionary urban political elite. The current conflict has also been shaped by interference from a variety of foreign actors, including the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The country has been split into five local centers of power controlled by the Republic of Yemen Government, Houthi forces, the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council, and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, respectively. The war has undermined the provision of basic public services by preventing local councils from operating effectively. The splitting of the central bank into two rival authorities has also significantly deepened the contraction of the economy and the depreciation of the riyal. The ensuing humanitarian crisis has disproportionately affected women, already at a disadvantage by one of the world’s widest gender gaps and entrenched gender inequality.
Looking ahead, it will be critical to watch any steps towards a ceasefire and future prospects for peace talks. It will also be important to monitor the ongoing economic conflict between the Houthis and the government, as well as any spillover impacts of the war in Gaza. Given the severity of the humanitarian crisis, little will change until the conflict is resolved and the indicators of Basic Welfare are addressed.
Last Updated: June 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
November 2023
Houthi hostilities escalate in Yemen
Throughout November, Yemen has seen an increase in levels of violence as Houthi forces have increased their military activity in strategic areas like Taiz and Hodeida governorates, and reportedly established ballistic missile launch pads in Hodeida. Moreover, Houthi forces launched a series of attacks in the Alkassara region on 6 and 7 November, resulting in eight government soldiers' deaths and injuring 17 others. A potential assassination of the Army's Chief of Staff was narrowly thwarted in Marib on 7 November, with the Ministry of Defence attributing it to the Houthis.
Heightened Houthi violence has been further evident with intensified attacks against Israeli targets and interests in the Red Sea, escalating tensions in the region amidst the ongoing war in Gaza. The group launched several ballistic missiles at military posts in Eilat, a southern Israeli city, and claimed responsibility for drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels. The Houthis have pledged to continue military operations against Israel and prevent Israeli ships from navigating the Arab and Red Seas, in support of the Palestinians.
Sources: Reuters, Human Rights Watch, Asharq Al-Awsat, Al Jazeera, The Guardian
October 2022
Ceasefire comes to an end
Failure to renew and extend the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Yemeni government and the Houthis has led to fears of further violence. Fighting purportedly recommenced hours after the truce came to an end on 2 October, and an attack on an oil port by the Houthis on 21 October has drawn regional condemnation. The ceasefire, which had commenced on 2 April 2022, was the longest pause in fighting over the 7-year conflict. It led to a reported reduction in civilian casualties and displacements, and an improvement in civilian access to basic services and economic opportunities - although political violence continued throughout the ceasefire.
Sources: Al Masdar Online, Security Council Report, ACLED
September 2022
Series of attacks against judiciary recorded
A Supreme Court judge was abducted and killed in Sana’a, the capital of Yemen, by an armed group connected to the Houthi movement, according to the Yemeni government. Judges and administrative workers have suspended court operations in protest over the killing, demanding that those involved be charged. The killing is one of a series of violent incidents against members of the judiciary that occurred within a week between the end of August and early September 2022. Attacks against the judiciary over the course of the 7-year conflict have been documented in the 2020 Annual Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, but the Yemen Judges Club has warned of escalation if an appropriate response to these latest incidents is not taken.
Sources: BBC Monitoring Service, ‘Briefing: Yemen government condemns killing of judge by “Houthi-linked” group’, 1 September 2022, < https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c203pmmj> accessed 14 November 2022, OHCHR
August 2022
Ceasefire extended
The Yemeni government and Houthis agreed to a second two-month extension to the United Nations (UN)-brokered ceasefire that commenced on 2 April 2022. According to the UN, the pause in fighting, the longest in the conflict, has led to a 60 per cent reduction in civilian casualties, although there has been an increase in the number of children killed. The UN also reported a 50 per cent reduction in displacements. Flights continue to go through the recently reopened international airport in Sana’a and fuel imports have significantly increased, resulting in improved access to healthcare and other public services. However, the Houthi's commitment under the agreement to reopen roads, including those leading to the long-besieged city of Taiz, is yet to be implemented. According to analysis from the Middle East Institute, the future of the ceasefire remains precarious, with the Houthis reported to be using it to prepare for a continuation of the conflict.
Sources: United Nations (1), United Nations (2), World Food Programme, INTERSOS, Middle East Institute
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