The territory that is now Rwanda was long inhabited by the Twa, Hutu, and Tutsi peoples. Prior to independence in 1962, it was ruled as a colony first by Germany and then Belgium. While there is disagreement over the nature and origins of the distinctions between the indigenous communities, colonizers rigidified and racialized group identities and made social, economic and political relations more unequal, privileging the Tutsi.  Shortly before independence, power shifted to the Hutu in a social revolution that forced many Tutsi into exile and led to Hutu rule. It also gave rise to new cycles of violence, as armed attacks from Tutsi exiles precipitated retaliatory violence by the Hutu government on Rwandan-based Tutsis. This dynamic eventually led to the genocide of 1994, in which over 800,000 Tutsis, Hutu moderates and Twa people are estimated to have been killed by Hutu extremists over the course of 100 days.

Since 1994, Rwanda has been under the continuous and increasingly authoritarian rule of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), led by President Paul Kagame. Though the government enforces a model of national unity that leaves little space for the expression of ethnic identity, the legacy of the genocide remains salient. The Twa minority, for example, receives no recognition or aid from the state despite suffering greatly during the genocide and experiencing widespread poverty. The shift in the country’s language of business from French to English has created its own cleavage, dividing Tutsis who spent the pre-genocide years in exile in English-speaking countries from those who remained in Rwanda. As of 2022, the country has the world’s highest percentage of women in parliament (over 63.8 per cent), yet it has lagged in breaking down gender barriers and reducing domestic violence in the home. Finally, the LGBTQIA+ community faces widespread bias and discrimination.

While the RPF government has maintained political stability and progressed in its fight against corruption, there is little space for political dissent and the opposition is marginalized through administrative measures and more coercive means, such as imprisonment. Many government critics have also been forced into exile, where they contend with the regime’s extensive system of extraterritorial repression. Rwanda is a de facto one-party state without free elections or an independent media. For instance, a 2015 referendum changed the constitution and allowed Kagame to run for additional terms. The government has, however, placed great emphasis on tackling the country’s development challenges, including the large youth population, a shortage of arable land, landlocked status, and low levels of human capital.

Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Civic Engagement, Freedom of Expression and Free Political Parties, partly because the political space in Rwanda remains closed and opposition parties face political pressure to toe the government line. Economic Equality should also be observed, as inclusive growth remains a key challenge, as the poverty reduction momentum has lately diminished.

(Last updated September 2024)