Data from International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Indices show that Southern Africa has consistently been Africa’s highest performing subregion in many areas of democracy but recent trends appear to contain the seeds of a much less certain future. Economic inequality remains high, governments are struggling to deliver basic goods and services, and citizen satisfaction with democracy is declining. These are volatile times. If we wish to adequately prepare democracies in Southern Africa for what is to come, we must go beyond extrapolating from these trends. Stakeholders must anticipate and position themselves for a variety of possible long-term futures. How might these futures look?

International IDEA and the Institute for Security Studies convened a multidisciplinary group of experts and practitioners from across Southern Africa for a foresight conference to identify and explore future democratic challenges and opportunities in the subregion. This Discussion Paper presents the outcomes of that conference.