United States
Iowa Caucus, 15 January 2024
Winter Weather, January 2024
Freezing temperatures and snow swept the United States from 12 January to 16 January (National Weather Service 2024). Temperatures across most every state hit below -17 degrees Celsius with wind chill temperatures brining several states below -26 degrees Celsius (The Weather Channel 2024). These temperatures occur when the stream of air moving around the North Pole is “disrupted or stretched”, which pushes the cold air south (PBS 2024). Previous notable polar vortex’s have occurred in the U.S. in 1977, 1982, 1985, 1989 and 2014 (National Weather Service n.d.). Recent bouts of freezing weather are linked to “rapid Artic warming” that may make winter temperatures more extreme due to climate change (AP News 2024). Further, the frequency of polar vortex’s occurring in January and February over the last 37 years has increased (American Meteorological Society 2018).
Impact on electoral processes
The Iowa caucus is a vote to select delegates for presidential nomination for the state of Iowa through in-person meetings. As compared to other primaries, the Iowa caucus is held in-person in the evening in various community gathering spaces where voters must physically attend. The caucus is also administered by political parties. Unlike previous years, the Democratic caucus shifted their Iowa caucus to a mail-in process. This decision was made unrelated to the weather. For the January 2024 Iowa caucus, the Republican caucus maintained its in-person process (AP News 2024). The Iowa caucus receives national attention and high importance for Republican candidates as the first primary for the Republican nomination, kicking off the process to the Republican National Convention in July.
The campaigns were disrupted by the extreme temperatures. For example, all three republican candidates cancelled several of their caucus events on 12 January for frostbite concerns, freezing temperatures, and issues traveling through snow. Candidates pleaded with their supporters to brave the cold and bundle up on caucus day (BBC 2024).
The in-person attendance at the caucus is vital to the outcome, as “in some rural precincts, as few as 10 people can make a difference” (Axios 2024). Prior to caucus, the temperature was forecasted in the daytime to be -19 degrees Celsius and below -37 degrees Celsius with windchill in the evening, impacting voter decision to attend (NYT 2024). Attending the in-person vote requires traveling amid the freezing weather, facing the potential of health concerns if exposed to the elements without appropriate attire; “officials are warning that frostbite can occur within 10 minutes of outdoor exposure and as Iowans will be lining up at their local caucus site, with some forced to wait outside for extended periods of time” (CBS 2024). On the night of the caucus, the recorded low was –27 degrees Celsius and high was –17 degrees Celsius (National Weather Service 2024).
Changes in procedures
The only procedural change made was the relocation of two caucus sites due to heating issues in the original locations and parking space (The Gazette 2024).
Voter turnout
Of the 752,000 registered Republicans in the state of Iowa, around 110,000 attended the frigid caucus, down from 186,657 attendees in the 2016 caucus and 176,400 for the 2020 caucus (Washington Post 2024 ; Wall Street Journal 2024 ; Des Moines Register 2020). Beyond the sub-zero temperatures, some argue that former President Donald Trump’s pre-caucus lead for party nomination contributed to low turnout (Des Moines Register 2024).
Bibliography
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Winter Weather
