What polls say about climate change – and what it means for COP29

Four in five people want their country to do more on climate change, according to the UNDP and University of Oxford’s People’s Climate Vote, the largest initiative to survey global climate opinion, published again this summer. In the study, an even greater majority of 86 per cent call for countries to set aside disagreements to collaborate on climate change. This should send a compelling message to the world leaders gathering in Baku this week for COP29, the UN Climate Change Conference.

In a difficult negotiating situation, and with the outcome of the U.S. elections being seen as an additional setback to global climate action, opinion polls can serve as an important link between policymakers and the public. Ahead of COP29, we have taken stock of the growing body of international climate change opinion studies, here condensed in an overview of what we can –and cannot– learn from them.

An expanding landscape of climate polls

In many countries in the Global North, public opinion on climate change can be tracked decades back, thanks to a density of national polling institutes. Some of these, like Ipsos, Gallup, and Pew, also conduct international surveys, including on climate and environmental topics. In the EU, the Eurobarometer has a rich history of surveying climate opinion. There are also several polling initiatives with a specific climate focus, like the European Investment Bank (EIB) climate survey, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the Climate and Public Opinions International Observatory. 

At the same time, we know comparatively little about what people in the Global South think about the climate crisis, though this is beginning to change. The Afrobarometer and the Arab Barometer have started surveying climate and environment alongside their typical focus on democracy. Many of the institutes mentioned above are increasingly broadening their scope to include new demographics. For instance, the EIB climate survey included regional chapters for Africa and the Middle East in 2022 and Latin America in 2023. Both editions of the People’s Climate Vote made a specific effort to include countries which had never been surveyed about climate change before.

What do the polls tell us?

If there is one message international climate polls send us, it would be that people around the world are concerned about climate change and want stronger climate action. For example, when asked whether governments should do more on climate change, consistent majorities of respondents agree: 80 per cent in the 2024 People’s Climate Vote, 89 per cent in the 2024 Global Climate Change Survey, 63 per cent in the 2024 Ipsos Earth Day survey and 56 per cent in the 2023 Ipsos Global Views on Climate Change survey, 77 per cent in the 2023 Afrobarometer, 67 per cent in the 2023 Eurobarometer, 88 per cent in the 2023 EIB Latin America survey, and 59 per cent in the 2021 People’s Climate Vote. In the 2023 International Public Opinion on Climate Change study by Yale University and Meta, majorities in 103 of 110 countries want governments to give high or very high priority to climate change, and in the 2022 EIB climate survey, 84 per cent agree we must drastically cut emissions.

_{Figure 1: Share of national population (in per cent) saying that the government should do more on climate action, Global Climate Change Survey 2024.} 

Besides support for climate action, polls typically include questions around perceptions of climate change (e.g., Do you consider climate change a risk? Are you worried about climate change? What do you think causes climate change?). Some polls also ask about experience of climate impacts, where the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll represents the most extensive survey of climate risk and resilience.

Other polls focus on policy-oriented questions. These frequently ask respondents who they think should take responsibility for climate action (The UN? The EU? Governments? Businesses? Individuals? etc.), or their preferences for policies on topics like energy, transportation or nature protection. Results for such questions are often mixed – anything else would indeed be surprising, given that they are asked to people living in very diverse policy contexts.

An appetite for climate finance?

COP29 has been branded the “Finance COP”, as a major task this year is to set a new global climate finance goal. Negotiators must agree on a new setup for financial support to countries most affected by climate change, including an updated target amount, which by most accounts must be radically increased. This is a sensitive topic, especially around the questions of who should be mandated to contribute to it, who should receive money, and for what.

What do polls say about opinion on such financial redistribution?

Also here, surveys generally show majority support. In the 2024 People's Climate Vote, 79 per cent called for more help to poorer countries: higher among least developed countries (92%) but still significant among G20 countries (74%). In the 2023 EIB climate survey, majorities in the EU, US, China, and Japan agreed that the transition to carbon neutrality must address inequality to succeed and that their country should financially compensate lower-income countries for climate impacts. In the 2024 Ipsos Earth Day survey, which included 33 middle-to-high-income countries, 63 per cent agreed that historically high emitting countries should pay more, though the results for three of the main historical emitters (U.S., Canada, Japan) were just below 50%.

Beyond the government level, the question is to what degree people make climate action a political and individual priority. The Global Climate Change Survey found interesting results for willingness to pay at the individual level: 69 per cent would contribute 1% of their personal income to fight climate change, while systematically underestimating the willingness of their neighbours to do so.

A climate and a democratic imperative

Taken together, the body of international climate surveys convey an important message. By now, climate change is a concern for most people around the world, and seemingly, they feel a certain sense of urgency and frustration. While some surveys display more cross-country variation than others, practically no study that we have found shows weak support or concern for climate issues.

Granted, this kind of macro-studies which mostly ask general, multiple-choice questions offer little in terms of specific guidance to policymakers when designing the actual policies. The power of these studies instead lies in the growing quantity of polls showing similar results.

While there is still much to learn about global climate opinion - geographical gaps remain, and efforts to survey hard-to-reach populations must continue - the overall mandate we can deduct from public opinion on climate change is clear. Decision makers in Baku must now live up to that social mandate. It is both a climate and a democratic imperative.

_{Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the institutional position of International IDEA, its Board of Advisers or its Council of Member States.}