The Global State of Democracy in the year of elections
Some metaphors are so widely adopted that they lose their original effect of leading a reader to picture something. In discussions of the historical progress of democracy, the metaphor of the wave has probably reached this level of featureless ubiquity. But if we reinvigorate the metaphor and pursue it a bit further, we can see that the wave of democratization that began in the 1970s and continued until the early 2000s was driven along by the winds of elections. For many, the holding of the first multi-party elections was understood to mark a successful transition to democracy. Maybe that was all true and useful. Yet, we see that the wave of democratization initially impelled by elections actually reached its terminal shore and started to wash back some years ago.
An elections super-cycle year
This “elections super-cycle” year, in which the largest number of people will vote in one year in human history, thus takes place in the midst of a long-term process of democratic decline. The combination of those two things led us to focus this year’s Global State of Democracy Report on perceptions of electoral integrity and disputes about elections.
At a descriptive level, we found a few things that were surprising but can be put together in a narrative that describes this moment in global democracy. First, the average level of electoral turnout has steadily declined in recent decades, including falling 10 percentage points in the last 15 years. Second, the prevalence of post-election riots and protests has steadily increased, such that in recent years almost 1 in 3 elections has been followed by this kind of public response. Third, over the last four years, in 1 in 5 elections a losing party or candidate refused to concede, and elections were challenged in court at about the same rate. These patterns led us to look into the aspects of elections that motivate disputes, and we found that there are specific aspects of the process that people focus on. Most legal challenges to electoral outcomes (and thus much of the public discussion about an election) concerns problems with voting and vote counting. Public confidence in elections will therefore often depend on ensuring undeniable excellence in these phases of the electoral process.
Reasons for hope
At the same time, we found that democratic progress has not stood still as negative trends have gained momentum. There is innovation. For example, election management bodies (EMBs) are not passive objects acted upon by outside forces. In many cases they have the power to act themselves, in ways such as “prebunking” misinformation about electoral processes (as has been tried in Australia), innovating in the means of voting to ensure that every eligible voter has a chance to participate (as in online voting in Estonia) and finding creative ways to maintain regular communication with voters (such as through social media in Bhutan). At the same time, countries that had been pejoratively described as “backsliding” had robust elections in which incumbent parties were significantly challenged, and in some cases defeated.
So, how worried should we be? On the one hand, the decline in the quality of democracy is real, persistent, and likely to continue. Erosion of the bedrock of democracy, including elections and rights, requires immediate attention and action. Critical steps include more timely and consistent communication between EMBs and the public, integration of public opinion data into operational planning and analysis, decisive consequences for false narratives about election fraud and more research into the drivers of public perceptions.
On the other hand, democracy remains robust in much of the world, and we continue to live in one of the most democratic eras of human history.
Looking for the next wave
As the elections-impelled wave washes back into a metaphorical sea, we need to look for our next wave. Elections must remain a central part of democracy, but it may be that the next wave – perhaps one with a higher crest – will be pushed forward by something else. For now, we can both take steps to protect elections and look for new ways to guarantee popular control of government that will involve more of the people more of the time.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the institutional position of International IDEA, its Board of Advisers or its Council of Member States.
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